Stop covid or save the economy? We can do both

... “Our choice is not whether we intervene or whether we go back to the normal economy,” says Emil Verner, an economist at MIT’s Sloan School who has recently looked at the flu pandemic of 1918 for insights into today’s outbreak. “Our choice is whether we intervene—and the economy will be really bad now and will be better in the future—versus doing nothing and the pandemic goes out of control and really destroys the economy.”

Overall, Verner and his coauthors found that the 1918 pandemic reduced national manufacturing output in the US by 18%; but cities that implemented restrictions earlier and for longer had much better economic outcomes in the year after the outbreak.

Verner points to the fates of two cities in particular: Cleveland and Philadelphia. Cleveland acted aggressively, closing schools and banning gatherings early in the outbreak and keeping the restrictions in place for far longer. Philadelphia was slower to react and maintained restrictions for about half as long. Not only did far fewer people die in Cleveland (600 per 100,000, compared with 900 per 100,000 in Philadelphia), but its economy fared better and was much stronger in the year after the outbreak. By 1919 job growth was 5% there, while in Philadelphia it was around 2%.

Today’s economy is much different—it’s geared more toward services, and far less toward manufacturing than it was 100 years ago. Nevertheless, the cities’ stories are suggestive. Verner says that even a conservative interpretation of the data suggests there is “no evidence that interventions are worse for the economy.” And most likely they had a significant benefit. “A pandemic is so destructive,” he says. “Ultimately any policy to mitigate it is going to be good for the economy.” ...

The new data that is emerging is encouraging and it should be acted upon very soon.

It should be obvious to anyone other than a partisan who equates the HCQ regime with Trump that we have an effective treatment for the virus so if you get the virus today you are far more likely to survive than if you got it only a few weeks ago. This should calm everyone down.

It is becoming apparent that those NOT in the high risk groups (obese, diabetic, elderly) are at little risk for severe illness from this virus. They CAN still be carriers and infect others, but this has to be baked into the cake. These are the people who need to remain separated until we get adequate testing and a supply of HCQ.

The distribution of cases and areas of severe illness are not uniform throughout the country or even within many states. Right now there are many parts of the country that should reopen because they do not have the cases that justify being shut down. Using a one-sized fits all program is not justified.

Testing is hopefully going to ramp up greatly in the next few weeks and we will learn much more about this virus and how much it has spread and also identify those who can get back to work.

There is a growing body of evidence that shows that HCQ is not only an effective treatment, it can have a prophylactic effect. Hospital workers, food services workers, first responders, and other folks at high risks should be offered HCQ if we have an adequate supply if they want it. I think this usage may lag behind because there are still some unknowns - i.e. if they have it and are contagious they need to be tested before they reenter the workplace.

I am still very worried about my parents, in-laws, and last surviving grandparent, but overall I think we are turning the corner on this thing. The damage to both our economy and psyche has been severe, but I thank God that we have a President who has assembled a great team to get the country back on track.

Here you go. Sudden calamity comes upon man and they don't expect it. Also, a man who is not supposed to know how to save the city, saves the city. Perhaps someone of humble position could tell us how to avoid lots of deaths AND keep from ruining our economy. However, the big wigs all have agendas to pursue so truth doesn't matter to them. How does this relate to current events?

Ecclesiastes 9:12 Moreover, man does not know his time: like fish caught in a treacherous net, and birds trapped in a snare, so the sons of men are ensnared at an evil time when it suddenly falls on them.
Ecclesiastes 9:13 Also this I came to see as wisdom under the sun, and it impressed me.
Ecclesiastes 9:14 There was a small city with few men in it and a great king came to it, surrounded it, and constructed large siegeworks against it.
Ecclesiastes 9:15 But there was found in it a poor wise man and he delivered the city by his wisdom. Yet no one remembered that poor man.
Ecclesiastes 9:16 So I said, "Wisdom is better than strength."But the wisdom of the poor man is despised and his words are not heeded.

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