Posted on 04/11/2020 6:50:06 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
MANY people could already be immune to coronavirus - with 15 per cent found to be carrying antibodies, experts claim.
Scientists studying the town at the epicentre of Germany's first big outbreak suggest that mainland Europe isn't far off achieving herd immunity needed to relax lockdown measures.
The experts, from the University of Bonn, said that their initial findings show that as many as 15 per cent of the town of Gangelt - dubbed the 'German Wuhan' - had antibodies to Covid-19.
These people had not shown symptoms and were not previously thought to have been infected, they added.
That figure is three times higher than previous estimates, and if correct then Germany's death rate is just 0.37 per cent.
Prof Hendrik Streeck, the virologist leading the study told a press conference: “This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible.
“Because the people in Germany have been so careful and disciplined, we are now able to move on to the second phase.”
The study is the first in Europe to analyse the effects of Covid-19 on an entire community.
Researchers are continuing to test around 1,000 people from 44 households for antibodies, as well as signs of current infection.
These early findings are based on around half the tests and show two per cent are currently infected while 14 per cent had antibodies.
It suggests that around 15 per cent of people in the town now have immunity to the virus.
Previous estimates have been put at around five per cent of the population having antibodies.
Prof Gunther Hartmann, another of the study's leaders, said: "The 15 per cent is not that far from the 60 per cent we need for herd immunity.
"With 60 to 70 per cent herd immunity, the virus will completely disappear from the population. Then the elderly are no longer at risk.”
The team are confident their findings are close to real figures for the virus because they had detected so many previously unknown infections.
But the academics cautioned that they cannot be extrapolated to the rest of Germany because Gangelt had a higher rate of infection.
They also added that they need more data to as not enough is known about the virus to be certain.
However, their study does suggest that the mortality rate of the virus could be lower than previously thought.
The current estimate for Germany by Johns Hopkins University is 1.98 per cent.
And an immunity rate of 15 per cent is already enough to slow the spread of the virus significantly, the researchers said in a joint statement.
Other German scientists studying the pandemic have also revealed that tens of millions of people could have already caught coronavirus.
Researchers from Göttingen University claimed countries have on average only detected six per cent of all Covid-19 cases.
The team also claimed that the mortality rate was even lower in the UK, at just 1.2 per cent - suggesting the true size of the outbreak was up to five million.
So far, there have been 7,978 deaths in Britain while just over 65,000 people have been infected.
It comes as the country's top scientist, Sir Patrick Vallance, said that a third of people worldwide who have had Covid-19 might not have shown symptoms.
With the ridiculously high R0 value for this virus, now estimated at 5.7, you need at least 82% of the population to have been infected to get to herd immunity.
Cases per million or Deaths per million are the best apples to apples comparison and can be found here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
It is worth noting that the corona virus type of virus is more similar to the common cold than it is to the flu:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w
1000 people from 44 households? I’d not have thought they pack them in so tight in Germany.
All of these countries have high fatality rates except for Germany
That’s true after the event is over. % of deaths vs confirmed cases is more accurate right now. In western Europe, Germany is the only one that has us beat in % if you leave out Norway and Finland who have few cases. Europe is just a nightmare
It’s also BS. 15% of the German population has not had COVID 19. The number of tests and number of positives show that that simply cannot be the case without assuming that most of them got it long long ago and recovered, which is unlikely given that even if you allow 1/1000 to get serious complications that would have overwhelmed the German health care system long long ago.
They tested in the most severely affected town.
Correct. A waeponized version of the common cold?
Sorry, but 15 percent won’t create herd immunity.
RE: Sorry, but 15 percent won’t create herd immunity.
The article never said that. It just says that 15% may already be immune. They need to test the rest.
What is so ridiculous about all of this is, even with people having developed natural immunity. Even if an inoculation is developed in the next few weeks and given to every person on the planet, the immunity may have a life span of only a few months, and will just get sick again in the Fall. But at least they will have lost their livelihoods and will be starving anyway. And for the 98% who get over it, well they can starve too.
There are a couple of flaws with this study.
First, there are several coronaviruses and they do have some cross-reactivity in antibody assays. So that 15% of people might have had ordinary colds and are coming up positive because of it.
Second, this is a group of people selected from a hot zone. There is no way the results of testing from a hot zone can be extrapolated to the whole population.
Yesterday in the press conference, President Trump said that an antibody test is going through the process of FDA approval. This means that the test must prove to have a certain level of specificity and sensitivity. The specificity means that the antibodies used in the test have been shown to be specific for Covid-19, with minimum reactivity for other coronaviruses. Sensitivity refers to how well the test picks up antibodies if present.
Until some antibody tests are validated and used in this kind of study, take anything with a grain of salt.
Huh? This guy needs to go back and take fourth grade math over.
Someone needs to get their name in the news...next to zero testing/evaluation make sit easy to theorize.
Antibody testing starting Friday in L.A. County to find past COVID-19 infections
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