Here's a link to the study. Fair warning, it's auf Deutsch.
https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf
The takeaway: this is one of the first real, statistically valid studies confirming what many of us have long suspected. There has been much more widespread infection and recovery than the "official" numbers are reporting.
This is good news: the CFR is much lower than the raw numbers would suggest. Still very bad, but a lot better than the raw numbers.
I would love to hear President Dr. Trump cite this study after “Dr.” Fauxci spouts his usual doomsday scenario.
It’s way past time to make the HCQ cocktail available in large quantiies, and open up society again. Anyone who gets symptomatic gets the cocktail.
We establish herd immunity, go back to work, and end this damn thing.
As the future Senator Blutarsky famously said “What’s this lying around shit?!!”
The truth doesn’t matter any more. They succeeded in trashing the economy and wiping out millions of jobs. Stick a fork in it.
Consider, the people that would present to a doctor first would be those with the severest symptoms and those most likely to get it, the most vulnerable. These patients, with other issues and weaknesses are the most likely to suffer higher mortality rates.
Another consideration, initially it is difficult to tell who has it, or who has been exposed. Only the people that present with significant symptoms get diagnosed as infected. Initial testing is difficult, time consuming, and expensive. As time goes on simpler, cheaper, quicker, more widespread testing reveals that more people were exposed. These people are not symptomatic, or are showing only partial/mild symptoms. Their immune systems are fighting off the virus more effectively. Your numbers now include a much larger group of people, and these people are not suffering nearly as severely as the initial group of patients.
These two considerations would lead me to believe that initial mortality rates are probably significantly higher than later/actual mortality rates. I'm not in the field, and I'm sure I'm not discovering anything that isn't well-known to those that are. So I'm left wondering why these initial mortality rate numbers were so widely used, even knowing they were probably, almost certainly wrong. You'd almost think the people publicizing them had some kind of reason for overstating their case, for inducing excessive fear...
Must be cuz they’re the master race and all.
#OUAN Open up America Now!!
“The takeaway: this is one of the first real, statistically valid studies confirming what many of us have long suspected.”
That’s not really true, but don’t expect the media or the “I wanna run the country” docs to pay attention to this one either. Those statistics are almost exactly representative of what’s happened in Korea, but hardly anyone paid attention to them either.
I will keep repeating this: Be sure to define the so called “mortality rate” in terms of both the numerator (top number) and denominator (bottom number). Don’t just parrot a mortality rate and then run screaming into the warm embrace of the government for your safety, while leaving behind the liberty that so very much scares you, without understanding it.
Numerator = deaths directly caused by Corona
Denominator = number of infections (not just cases, hospitalizations, positive tests, symptomatic diagnosis)
There are challenges gaining this data but especially for the denominator. But there are sound methods of testing a sample and projecting the number of infections. These are not SWAGS but solid statistical methods not unlike what many people use every day in manufacturing.
One reason no one panics over the flu is because the CDC gives a huge number of infections (based on estimates) to compare to a relatively small number of deaths.
No such discourse is taking place with WuFlu.
Depends on population being infected
If have high portion of elderly with underlying condition like Italy death total will be several times this versus
if population is younger
Have to average everything together to get result
i believe that when widespread testing of the general population becomes available in the U.S.., we’ll find that the mortality RATE is far lower than just testing people with symptoms ...
The numbers appear to already be moderately outdated in regards the fatality rate, but it does provide some insight (with considerable margins of error) of how many people the Germans missed testing in that town.
They are also considered preliminary results, and the group is doing a more rigorous and detailed study which began March 30th, and is expected to take 4 weeks.
That’s because here in the US we are inflating the numbers.
Because of the lack of tests, deaths where there was the mere suspicion that someone had the virus were recorded as a death because of the virus. Many folks already on their last breath that would have died anyhow, if tested positive while still alive were recorded as a corona virus death after they passed.
It’s America, once we pick up on any fad or trend, we take it to an extreme.
I would trust the German official reports more than ours.