Posted on 04/10/2020 9:13:16 AM PDT by absalom01
The first results from a study by a German virologist show a significantly lower death rate from COVID-19 than the one that is widely reported, and may be a step toward easing restrictions on individuals and businesses going forward.
What's the study? The COVID-19 case cluster study was led by Dr. Hendrik Streeck of the Bonn University Institute of Virology. It was done in the Gangelt district of Heinsberg, one of the earliest places to experience the spread of the coronavirus in Germany.
About 1,000 people participated in the study by way of questionnaires, throat swabs, and blood tests to detect the presence of COVID-19 antibodies. These interim results are based on data from about 500 people.
...
The study revealed significant spread throughout the district. The overall infection rate was 15%. Of those infected people, less than one-half of 1% died, indicating that currently reported mortality rates could be overestimating the fatality of the virus:
(Excerpt) Read more at theblaze.com ...
Here's a link to the study. Fair warning, it's auf Deutsch.
https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf
The takeaway: this is one of the first real, statistically valid studies confirming what many of us have long suspected. There has been much more widespread infection and recovery than the "official" numbers are reporting.
This is good news: the CFR is much lower than the raw numbers would suggest. Still very bad, but a lot better than the raw numbers.
I would love to hear President Dr. Trump cite this study after “Dr.” Fauxci spouts his usual doomsday scenario.
It’s way past time to make the HCQ cocktail available in large quantiies, and open up society again. Anyone who gets symptomatic gets the cocktail.
We establish herd immunity, go back to work, and end this damn thing.
As the future Senator Blutarsky famously said “What’s this lying around shit?!!”
The truth doesn’t matter any more. They succeeded in trashing the economy and wiping out millions of jobs. Stick a fork in it.
A similar randomized study is underway in LA county today and tomorrow with drive-through testing with an antigen test.
It shouldn’t take long to crunch the numbers, so it will be interesting to see how long it takes our local officials to release their findings.
If it takes more than a few days, they’re up to no good.
Consider, the people that would present to a doctor first would be those with the severest symptoms and those most likely to get it, the most vulnerable. These patients, with other issues and weaknesses are the most likely to suffer higher mortality rates.
Another consideration, initially it is difficult to tell who has it, or who has been exposed. Only the people that present with significant symptoms get diagnosed as infected. Initial testing is difficult, time consuming, and expensive. As time goes on simpler, cheaper, quicker, more widespread testing reveals that more people were exposed. These people are not symptomatic, or are showing only partial/mild symptoms. Their immune systems are fighting off the virus more effectively. Your numbers now include a much larger group of people, and these people are not suffering nearly as severely as the initial group of patients.
These two considerations would lead me to believe that initial mortality rates are probably significantly higher than later/actual mortality rates. I'm not in the field, and I'm sure I'm not discovering anything that isn't well-known to those that are. So I'm left wondering why these initial mortality rate numbers were so widely used, even knowing they were probably, almost certainly wrong. You'd almost think the people publicizing them had some kind of reason for overstating their case, for inducing excessive fear...
Must be cuz they’re the master race and all.
Agreed. It is just about time for them to move on, drop the virus fear-mongering and switch over to the blame game.
They'll castigate President Trump and free markets at length via massive hypocrisy. They leftist/socialist/fascists will push for more government, more control, less freedom. Watch, it's coming, it's even starting now.
Churchill did NOT say that
Well, that’s the question, isn’t it?
To be fair, the CCP lied its pants off from the beginning about their ChiCom Bio-weapon. They concealed the nature of the virus, its ability to spread, the presentation of the disease, everything.
I don’t think that they deliberately released it from the lab, but once it was out, they went all-in with their bio-weapon.
And so many in the West were, and still are willing to help them with their efforts.
#OUAN Open up America Now!!
I hope Trump can save us....
It will come back it always has and this time it will come back faster due to the non economic circumstances surrounding the shut down.
“The takeaway: this is one of the first real, statistically valid studies confirming what many of us have long suspected.”
That’s not really true, but don’t expect the media or the “I wanna run the country” docs to pay attention to this one either. Those statistics are almost exactly representative of what’s happened in Korea, but hardly anyone paid attention to them either.
Are you sure he did not, because I see it all over the web as his quote? Although there is a lot of fake information out there.
Steve Hilton at Fox seemed to think that he will have those LA numbers in his hands on his Sunday show.
Save us? The experts hung Mr. Trump over the abyss with the 2,000,000 death fantasy, and, as he had to, he flinched. This is so reminiscent of the last days of Bush II, it’s eerie.
As long as the experts keep dangling doomsday numbers before a panicked public, Mr. Trump is paralyzed. He can’t do what is necessary.
I am positive. Have seen many Churchill quotes over years and never saw that attributed to him.
The saying originated with none other than Rahm Emmanuel, notorious Democrat Party hack.
I will keep repeating this: Be sure to define the so called “mortality rate” in terms of both the numerator (top number) and denominator (bottom number). Don’t just parrot a mortality rate and then run screaming into the warm embrace of the government for your safety, while leaving behind the liberty that so very much scares you, without understanding it.
Numerator = deaths directly caused by Corona
Denominator = number of infections (not just cases, hospitalizations, positive tests, symptomatic diagnosis)
There are challenges gaining this data but especially for the denominator. But there are sound methods of testing a sample and projecting the number of infections. These are not SWAGS but solid statistical methods not unlike what many people use every day in manufacturing.
One reason no one panics over the flu is because the CDC gives a huge number of infections (based on estimates) to compare to a relatively small number of deaths.
No such discourse is taking place with WuFlu.
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