Posted on 04/10/2020 5:19:41 AM PDT by Enlightened1
JPMorgan economists cut their second-quarter forecast even more, now expecting the economy will decline by 40%
The economists said the 16.8 million jobless claims filed in the last three weeks indicate a huge surge in job losses, which they estimate at 25 million in April.
A number of Wall Street firms expect contractions in the second quarter of 30% or more.
JPMorgan economists issued an even more dire forecast, now foreseeing a 40% decline in the nation’s gross domestic product for the second quarter and a surge in April’s unemployment rate to 20% with 25 million jobs lost.
In an earlier forecast, they said second-quarter GDP would be down 25%.
The economists, however, continue to see a second-half recovery, based on the assumption that disruptions from the pandemic fade by June. They note that the number of people seeking unemployment benefits has totaled 16.8 million in just three weeks.
“With these data in hand we think the April jobs report could indicate about 25 million jobs lost since the March survey week, and an unemployment rate around 20%,” they wrote, “Given the expected hit to hours worked this quarter we now look for -40.0% annualized real GDP growth in 2Q, down from -25.0% previously.”
They expect the third quarter to rebound with growth of 23%, and a fourth-quarter increase of 13%. They forecast a 10% decline in the first quarter. The economists said they will finalize their employment forecast for April in coming weeks.
In general, economists have had a difficult time measuring the impact of the virus shutdowns and many have been revising their forecasts, with a number of firms now seeing hits of more than 30% in the second quarter, historical levels that have no modern precedent.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
maybe they’re right...maybe they’re wrong. it’s difficult to accept the forecast’s of those who didn’t forecast the financial market meltdown (which started in September and was accelerated by the virus)in the first place.
maybe they’re right...maybe they’re wrong. it’s difficult to accept the forecast’s of those who didn’t forecast the financial market meltdown (which started in September and was accelerated by the virus)in the first place.
It appears that inside the White House Team Scarf and Team Kudlow are engaged in Mortal Combat through an escalating series of ever more terrifying press leaks.
Buckle-up!
One would hope that this uh, forecast is just bullhsit from CNBC.
Meanwhile,the death rate from the bat virus compared to the population of the U.S. is about 5 one thousandth of one percent. Gotta keep the hysteria going folks. America has been playgued.
JP Morgan Chase is trying to make that happen. They are the worst at helping with the PPP. Every other bank is being successful and people are getting the loans, Chase is not. When this is over we will be moving all our accounts to other banks.
Worse than that.
Good new for the Freeper doomsayers who worked 24/7 posting fear and scare headlines for weeks!
That forecast is from JP Morgan and not CNBC.
Grim FReepers
Anything over 25% is pretty much a depression.
Personally I think it’s going to be worse that 30%.
L
Otherwise it's bad news.
2/3 of the economy is based on consumer spending. This type of unemployment will create strong aftershocks on an already weakened economy.
It’s a real headline.
You do know that 16 million people have already lost their jobs.
It is time to end this shutdown.
It does not make any sense to shutting down the entire economy!
Stupid at this point!
Only shutdown the areas like New York and wherever it is really high. The rest of the country needs to go back to work and be cautious.
Exactly!
Even if it ended tommorw.
If you look at the anti Trumper’s on Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley’s boards and management you will understand why I believe they had a vested interest in everything crashing. They probably have one button to push to sell all the rest of their stuff and put it all in bonds. I don’t trust them at all and they are trying to formulate and caused a recession much like the media tries to create them there too and create news. For example if anybody out there gets Barron’s magazine you’ll understand what I’m saying. I did it just for the occasional stop it. But they put a b Cohen who invented Goldman Sachs like 50 years on their stock round table every year and the anti Trump messaging in her interview is about as hateful as you can get she can’t distance herself from her hatred to even put a unbiased stock pick forward. So all the people at these two companies I believe her about the same. No fear.
That was not a criticism. Kudlow & Co. NEED to fight fire with fire.
Based on what, a model? We are painfully discovering a model is about as credible as CNN.
But they put a b Cohen who invented Goldman Sachs like 50 years on their stock round table every year
...
Should have read Abby Cohen oh, and has been with Goldman Sachs about 50 years
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