[semimojo]

It originally had an upward range of 2.2 million before they reversed themselves after the first week to 200K.

Not the IHME model.

The Imperial College had an upper range of 2.2m for the US if no mitigation measures were taken.

No one thought that was realistic because of course we reacted, but it was a stab at how bad it could have been.

[Paladin2]

"It originally had an upward range of 2.2 million before they reversed themselves after the first week to 200K. Not the IHME model."

That's exactly the point I was going to go back and review. It'd be interesting to see the contemporary IHME model output.

[Paladin2]

I’d also be interested to know if these models are epidemiological “first principles” based or just regression claptrap or some meld of the two.