Posted on 04/09/2020 4:11:02 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
Hazleton PA is a nightmare. We have all the Dominicans going back and forth to New York and NJ. This has not stopped. Governor Wolfe does not care he will not help. Thank God I can work from home.
I’m sure that’s frustrating.
Rationality is in such short supply these days.
Three old heavyset ladies went into Walmart and filled
their baskets.
There’s just none left for the public.
Smile
Gov. Wolf is a nightmare. He’s giddy with power. I can’t see him relaxing the stay at home policy and opening businesses until June at the earliest.
From my own graphs and data, the worldwide trend is looking good. The death rate, unfortunately, is still increasing and will continue to do so until cases are resolved. It stands at 5.969%. However, there are good trends: the number of recovered cases is creeping up, and the numbers of new cases and new active cases have dropped. Active cases are those remaining after deaths and recoveries have been accounted for. The number of new cases peaked at 101,085 on April 4, and is less than half of that today, 49,662.
The decrease in new illness has two explanations. One is that the social distancing policies enacted by many countries around the world are having the desired effect. The other is that Covid-19 is seasonal like other cold viruses, and we are moving into spring now. Probably both of these contribute to the drops.
The number of deaths worldwide is lower today than it was yesterday. It is too early to know if that is a trend.
All of these numbers are lagging indicators. Covid-19 has a average incubation of 5 days, variable between 2 and 14 days. Thus, social distancing measures practiced today affect the case count several days into the future. Deaths occur between 2 and 8 weeks after infection, again affecting future numbers. That said, the graphs today are looking good, and I am cautiously optimistic about the future.
I should note that according to the Johns Hopkins tracker, we have not yet reached 1.5 million cases, but that is on track to occur later today.
Please let me know if anyone wants to see my graphs. I did not post them because there are already several graphs in the original post.
JHU is all screwed up right now.
They are still showing the same numbers from before 18:30
yesterday even though they show they updated since.
The updates dropped overall cases, deaths, and recoveries.
Their own numbers don’t verify their deaths or recoveries
on those two lists they present on the main page.
They haven’t for three weeks to a month.
Here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
You’re welcome to post your graphs here.
Post away...
I know folks enjoy them.
I hesitate to post my graphs today that I have doubts about the timeliness of Johns Hopkins. I will, however, keep track of the numbers from both sources now and keep an eye on what the trends look like either way. They should converge at some point.
Thank you. Looking for more good news on the horizon.
“The number of deaths worldwide is lower today than it was yesterday.”
They’re coming back to life? OH NO, ZOMBIES!!
(Yes, I know you were referring to the numbers of deaths on each single day, not the total number of deaths to date. The way it was phrased could be misinterpreted, though.)
Not sure where you’re getting the numbers you are posting but here appears to be one glaring inaccuracy...
Your number:
“04/08 435,160 35,231 3,678
Our number of new cases excellerated yesterday. You can see the numbers. Waaaaaa...”
31935 new cases and 1940 new deaths in the United States(Worldometer).
Bookmark
Thanks again, D1! Just a comment on the daily “New Cases” column for the US numbers: It’s pretty obvious now that we have several weeks of data that the weekend numbers are light as if there is no reporting being done, and that inflates the next 2 days or so. Are you aware of any specific reasons for this? Has this been discussed anywhere in your research?
I get my data for that part generally from JHU.
Yesterday I pulled down a JHU report around 18:30.
At 22:00 JHU was showing an update at 19:30. The problem was, their numbers had dropped significantly from the prior report I recorded. And to top it all off, they didn’t update again until way after midnight.
I close out at midnight, and couldn’t use JHU.
I had to scramble to use WorldoMeter to close out.
JHU and WorldoMeter take turns leapfrogging each other. One will have greater numbers and then the other one does.
Evidently the utilization of WorldoMeter picked up more numbers than it should have. Starting off the day with either and switching could cause the data to be skewed, accurate, but sketchy too.
Neither firm is providing bad data, but they process data close to the same time, but not exactly the same.
Sticking with one company is optimal, but I didn’t have a choice.
WoM has some countries JHU doesn’t and JHU has some WoM doesn’t.
Off 1,519,000 and change, I was able to recondite within 18 cases using WOM.
I should have made a disclaimer, but didn’t think of it.
I’ll mention it in tomorrow morning’s post.
Very helpful, thank you for your efforts.
Small point: I think you mean ‘accelerate’ not ‘excellerate’. ‘Accelerate’ means to increase. ‘Excel’ is a spreadsheet program made by Micro$oft.
As always, great, over the top work!
I have a question. I go to Worldometer, the source I use for tracking daily U.S. cases, and see 31,935 cases on the new cases graph. In your report above under the heading, “Declared Cases in the United States” you are reporting 35,231.
By Worldometer the daily new cases peaked on Saturday, 4/4 at 34,196. The growth in new cases per day peaked the next day at 5,015.
By my guess (and hope) the growth trend has likely broken with these tops/peaks.
One other interesting factoid is testing. The number of pending tests are declining. Yesterday was 17,228. Over the last four or five days, that number has hovered in the 15K to 17K range. Prior to that, it was in the 60K range (back to 3/28). Also, the three day moving average for the number of tests seems to be pointing down. Maybe they’ve run out of people to test. The total test through yesterday for the entire period is 2,189,766. These are all U.S. numbers.
By the way, I like my new case number from Worldometer better :-). What is the source of your number?
Finally, in my opinion, it sure looks like a peak here in the U.S.
I just saw your comment about skewed numbers. I always use Worldometer so I am comparing apples to apples. The new case number for yesterday, as I noted previously on Worldometer, was 31,935. It still shows that number now.
Thanks again.
I never said WoM was inaccurate or wrong.
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