Posted on 04/09/2020 4:11:02 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
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COVID-19 Update
As of 04/08/2020 23:59 PDST (taken at 23:59)
Good morning everyone.
Thank you for stopping by to check out this Update.
Be on the Lookout for Somethings New:
A Few Graphs, and Workups on States, Territories, & Counties
Links to other resources: Near the bottom of this post.
Commentary4: Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.
The Global Community Passes Another Milestone...
Around 13:30 yesterday afternoon PDST, the world saw it's 1.5 millionth human diagnosed
with COVID-19.
The Inevitabe Counter Attack of the Recovering Humans
Going back sixteen days to the 23rd of March, there were 42,248 new cases of COVID-19
documented globally outside of China. Now today we are seeing over 29,373 cases of people
being declared recovered. Even better news, within five days we may see as many as 50,000
plus people recovering.
On the 26th of March 60,628 new cases were reported. Subsequent to that, the figures were
65,118 to 73,836 through the end of the month, with one stragler of just 58,576.
Due to the larger group of people recovering, the percentage of resolved cases that has
turned around and risen from 25.500% up to 27.606% range and is growing at about 0.5% per day
now. That will excellerate in the next few days. While the number of active cases will
continue to rise, they'll rise slower now, and in time, they will start to decline.
This does not mean that the number of new cases is going to go down right now. It just means
that we are now poised to fight back in larger numbers as our people are declared recovered.
It's very good news.
The Issue of New Cases Leveling Out or Dropping
Lets address this issue a little more.
There does seem to be a flattening going on in the Global scene outside China and the U. S.
Right now.
Lets look at some numbers, and a couple of graphs to go along with them.
Here: (case growth)
-
Global Global (EC)
Excluding Minus the
China the U. S. U. S.
03/29 58,481 38,955 19,826
03/30 62,463 40,868 21,595
03/31 73,836 48,832 25,004
04/01 77,502 50,405 27,097
04/02 78,548 49,710 28,838
04/03 102,458 69,559 32,899
04/04 84,954 51,111 33,843
04/05 71,866 46,465 25,401
04/06 72,272 41,534 30,738
04/07 83,630 52,077 31,553
04/08 87,552 52,321 35,231
Those charts do addres the same topic, but the first goes back ten days and the other 30.
Over the last week or so, the global community outside China and the U. S., has settled
into a grove for the most part, between 46 to 52 thousand. They don't seem to be rising
upwards in a trend. That's an improvement.
per day.
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Yesterday's Growth Rate Rose Back Up
Declared Cases in the United States
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GRWTH GROWTH
-
03/20 19,624 5,374 539
03/21 26,747 7,123 1,749
03/22 35,206 8,459 1,336
03/23 46,442 11,236 2,777
03/24 54,893 8,789 -2,427
03/25 60,197 13,966 5,177
03/26 85,991 16,794 2,828
03/27 104,839 18,848 2,054
03/28 124,665 19,826 978
03/29 143,025 18,360 -1,466
03/30 164,620 21,595 3,235
03/31 189,624 25,004 3,409
04/01 216,721 27,097 2,093
04/02 245,559 28,838 1,741
04/03 278,458 32,899 4,061
04/04 312,237 33,779 899
04/05 337,638 25,401 -8,378
04/06 368,376 30,738 5,337
04/07 399,929 31,553 815
04/08 435,160 35,231 3,678
Our number of new cases excellerated yesterday. You can see the numbers. Waaaaaa...
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, & Serious/Critical Cases
in the United States
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 252 152 404 19,220
03/21 329 176 505 26,242
03/22 396 178 574 34,632
03/23 428 178 606 45,836
03/24 581 354 935 54,296
03/25 753 619 1,372 67,825
03/26 1,301 1,868 3,169 82,822
03/27 1,704 2,622 4,326 100,513
03/28 2,229 3,231 5,460 119,205
03/29 2,488 4,562 7,050 135,975
03/30 3,170 5,507 8,677 155,943
03/31 4,055 7,251 11,306 178,318
04/01 5,112 8,878 13,990 202,731 5,005
04/02 6,095 10,403 16,498 229,061 5,421
04/03 7,403 12,283 19,686 258,772 5,787
04/04 8,454 14,825 23,279 288,958 5,870
04/05 9,620 17,977 27,597 310,041 8,702
04/06 10,943 19,810 30,753 337,623 8,983
04/07 12,875 22,711 34,586 365,343 9,169
04/08 14,797 22,891 37,688 397,472 9,279
The numbers continue to grow. 37,688 people have come through COVID-19 alive now.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie Continues to Grow
Time to take another moment to address the U. S. portion of the global declared cases.
The U. S. has roughly 4.252% of the global populace. There are two
figures I'm tracking with regard to this, the Declared Cases and the
Active Cases.
Here is what those numbers looked like at the end of the day yesterday.
DECLARED DAY'S ACTIVE DAY'S
DATE CASES CHGE CASES CHGE
-
03/20 7.125% 1.297% 10.934% 1.552%
03/21 8.704% 1.579% 13.000% 2.066%
03/22 10.377% 1.673% 15.343% 2.343%
03/23 12.170% 1.793% 17.411% 2.068%
03/24 13.053% 0.883% 18.369% 0.958%
03/25 14.657% 1.604% 20.190% 1.821%
03/26 16.140% 1.483% 21.454% 1.264%
03/27 17.530% 1.390% 22.920% 1.466%.
03/28 18.742% 1.212% 24.126% 1.206%
03/29 19.762% 1.020% 25.289% 1.163%
03/30 20.936% 1.174% 26.777% 1.488%
03/31 22.045% 1.109% 27.885% 1.108%
04/01 23.110% 1.065% 29.120% 1.235%
04/02 24.160% 1.050% 30.482% 1.362%
04/03 24.886% 0.726% 31.057% 0.575%
04/04 25.935% 1.049% 32.400% 1.343%
04/05 26.464% 0.529% 32.866% 0.466%
04/06 27.324% 0.860% 34.153% 1.287%
04/07 27.930% 0.606% 34.854% 0.701%
04/08 28.634% 0.704% 36.125% 1.2715
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Global Cases Increased to Record Levels Today, Outside M/L China
Yes, back to still more numbers...
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GROWTH GROWTH - compared to day before
-
03/20 194,148 30,824 5,185
03/21 225,932 31,784 963
03/22 257,820 31,888 104
03/23 297,172 39,352 7,464
03/24 341,530 41,462 2,110
03/25 390,378 48,848 7,386
03/26 451,006 60,628 11,780
03/27 516,124 65,118 4,490
03/28 583,107 66,983 1,865
03/29 641,588 58,481 -8,502
03/30 704,051 62,463 3,982
03/31 777,887 73,836 11,373
04/01 855,389 77,502 3,666
04/02 933,937 78,548 1,046
04/03 1,036,395 102,458 23,910
04/04 1,121,349 84,954 -17,054
04/05 1,193.215 71,866 -13,088
04/06 1,265,487 72,272 386
04/07 1,349,117 83,630 11,358
04/08 1,436,669 87,552 3,922
Not much to say abou these numbers other than that they are pretty big. d Cases continue to go up.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical Cases
Globally, Excluding M/L China
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 8,110 16,393 24,503 169,645
03/21 9,740 19,995 29,735 196,197
03/22 11,305 25,485 36,790 221,030
03/23 13,060 28,470 41,530 258,538
03/24 15,347 35,256 50,603 290,927
03/25 17,643 40,467 58,210 332,168
03/26 20,785 48,084 68,869 382,137
03/27 24,466 56,801 81,267 434,857
03/28 27,522 64,777 92,299 490,808
03/29 30,714 76,342 107,056 534,532
03/30 34,515 89,989 124,504 579,547
03/31 39,052 102,121 141,163 636,724
04/01 43,949 118,092 162,041 693,348
04/02 49,838 135,204 185,042 748,895
04/03 55,611 150,014 205,625 839,770
04/04 61,466 170,309 231,775 889,574 41,993
04/05 66,183 185,921 252,104 941,111 45,633
04/06 71,485 208,635 280,120 985,367 47,201
04/07 78,812 224,264 303,076 1,046,041 47,743
04/08 85,214 253,546 338,760 1,097,909 47,990
There were 35,684 resolved cases today. That's 7,668 more than the previous record
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, and Spain
Case growth.
Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
DATE FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SPAIN - 02/20 12 16 3 2 02/25 14 18 322 9 03/01 100 117 1,128 76 03/06 -- 653 -- 670 -- 4,636 -- 401 03/11 2,284 1,966 12,462 2,277 03/16 6,650 7,272 27,980 9,942 03/21 14,485 22,364 53,578 25,496 03/26 -- 29,566 -- 43,938 -- 80,589 -- 57,786 03/31 52,819 68,180 105,792 94,417 04/05 93,780 100,123 128,948 131,646 04/08 113,982 113,296 139,422 148,220 > 2 days not five
Just keeping an eye on these nations. France and Germany are neck and neck there.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19
I'll be repetitive here.
Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I'm cheking out if they are doing the
right thing or not. I'm not convinced either way at this point.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
DATE SWEDEN DENMARK FINLAND NORWAY - 02/21 1 0 1 0 02/26 2 0 1 1 03/02 15 4 6 25 03/07 -- 161 -- 27 -- 19 -- 156 03/12 599 617 59 702 03/17 1,196 1,024 321 1,471 03/22 1,934 1,514 626 2,385 03/27 -- 3,069 -- 2,700 -- 1,041 -- 3,771 04/01 4,947 3,290 1,446 4,877 04/06 7,206 4,875 2,176 5,865 04/08 8,419 5,597 2,487 6,042 > 2 days not five - Deaths 687 218 40 101 - Populace 10.33m 5.82m 5.53m 5.37m
I'll keep an eye on this dynamic, and add to the above numbers daily.
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China numbers make up 00.21% of today's cases globally
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day on 04/07/2020, there were: Oops, at 19:33 PDST last night...
1 nation(s) with 400,000 plus (take a bow...) 3 nation(s) with 100,000 to 199,999 4 nation(s) with 50,000 to 99,999 4 natiom(s) with 20,000 to 49,999 5 nation(s) with 10,000 to 19,999 11 nation(s) with 5,000 to 9,999 35 nation(s) with 1,000 to 4,999There are currently 63 nations with a 1,000 count or above...
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
DECLAR DAY'S RESOLVED DAY'S PCT DEC ACTIVE
DATE CASES GROWTH CASES GROWTH CS RESOL CASES
-
03/20 - 275,434 - 30,911 - 99,655 - 3,590 - 36.181% - 175,779
03/21 307,280 31,846 105,425 5,770 34.309% 201,855
03/22 339,259 31,979 113,540 8,115 33.467% 225,719
03/23 - 381,621 - 42,362 - 118,369 - 4,829 - 31.017% - 263,252
03/24 423,121 41,500 127,538 9,169 30.142% 295,583
03/25 472,109 48,998 136,178 8,640 28.845% 335,931
03/26 - 532,788 - 60.679 - 146,749 - 10,571 - 27.544% - 386,039
03/27 598,070 65,282 159,533 12,784 26.675% 438,537
03/28 665,164 67,094 171,077 11,544 25.720% 494,087
03/29 - 723,740 - 58,576 - 186,060 - 14,983 - 25.708% - 537,680
03/30 786,291 62,551 203,926 17,848 25.933% 582,383
03/31 860,181 73,890 220,713 16,085 25.659% 639,468
04/01 - 937,783 - 77,602 - 241,591 - 20,878 - 25.762% - 696,192
04/02 1,016,401 78,618 264,935 23,344 26.066% 751,466
04/03 1,118,921 102,520 285,706 20,771 25.534% 833,215
04/04 - 1,203,923 - 85,002 - 312,068 - 26,362 - 25.931% - 891,855
04/05 1,275,856 71,933 332,513 20,445 26.062% 943,343
04/06 1,348,184 72,328 359,618 27,105 26.674% 988,566
04/07 - 1,431,900 - 83,716 - 383,688 - 24,070 - 26.796% - 1,048,212
04/08 1,519,478 87,848 419,465 35,777 27.606% 1,100,283
Although there were 87,848 new cases declared today, the actual growth in new cases
The percentage of resolved cases is climbing pretty good now. As mentioned earlier,
those numbers are going to get very large in upcoming days. Expect 50, 60, perhaps
70 thousand per day shortly. We're talking tomorrow or perhaps another day or two.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical Cases
Globally, Including M/L China
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 11,399 88,256 99,655 175,779
03/21 13,049 92,376 105,425 201,855
03/22 14,706 98,834 113,540 225,719
03/23 16,563 101,806 118,369 263,252
03/24 18,919 108,619 127,358 295,583
03/25 21,308 114,870 136,178 335,931
03/26 24,077 122,672 146,749 386,039
03/27 27,761 131,772 159,533 438,537
03/28 30,852 140,225 171,077 494,087
03/29 34,018 152,042 186,060 537,680
03/30 37,820 166,088 203,908 582,383
03/31 42,354 178,359 220,713 639,468
04/01 47,261 194,330 241,591 696,192
04/02 53,160 211,775 264,935 751,466
04/03 58,937 226,769 285,706 833,215
04/04 64,795 247,273 312,068 891,855 42,288 ch 295
04/05 69,514 262,999 332,513 943,343 45,898 ch 265
04/06 74,816 284,802 359,618 988,566 47,412 ch 211
04/07 82,145 301,543 383,688 1,048,212 47,932 ch 189
04/08 88,549 330,916 419,464 1,100,283 48,166 ch 176
Not much to say about these numbers, I haven't said elsewhere. I'll spare you.
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.
1 CASE IN
THIS NUMBER
OF PEOPLE
ENTITY 04/08 04/07 04/06 04/08 04/07
-
Globally : 7,062 7,413 7,860 -351 -447
Outside China : 7,077 7,428 7,885 -351 -543
The U. S. A. : 831 904 979 -73 -75
-
INFECTION LEVEL
OF ENTIRE
ENTITY POPULACE 04/07 04/06 04/08 04/07
-
Globally : 00.0134% 00.0127% 00.0120% 00.0007% 00.0007%
Outside China : 00.0172% 00.0164% 00.0154% 00.0008% 00.0010%
The U. S. A. : 00.1203% 00.1106% 00.0097% 00.0938% 00.0084%
These saturation rates are troubling. The percentge of our populace infected is too,
States of the Union, the District of Columbia, and Territories...
I still have this available in the Excel format, linked below. I thought folks might
like to have access to it here. I list the states alphabetically. On the right side
of that listing is the ranking number in the list by descending cases. Look up your
state alphabetiall, get that number, and look at the list on the right to find look
at how the other states stand next to yours.
Here is the Standing of 200 Counties in the U. S.
I still have this available in the Excel format, linked below. I thought folks might
like to have access to it here. I list the Counties alphabetically. On the right
side of that listing is the ranking number in the list by descending cases. You can
look to see if your county is listed. Hopefully not... If you find it, you can look
at the numberical list to compare to other counties.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Other Features:
LINK US States DC51, Territories5+, and Counties200
Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK earlyAlert
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex
LINK World Health Organization
Hazleton PA is a nightmare. We have all the Dominicans going back and forth to New York and NJ. This has not stopped. Governor Wolfe does not care he will not help. Thank God I can work from home.
I’m sure that’s frustrating.
Rationality is in such short supply these days.
Three old heavyset ladies went into Walmart and filled
their baskets.
There’s just none left for the public.
Smile
Gov. Wolf is a nightmare. He’s giddy with power. I can’t see him relaxing the stay at home policy and opening businesses until June at the earliest.
From my own graphs and data, the worldwide trend is looking good. The death rate, unfortunately, is still increasing and will continue to do so until cases are resolved. It stands at 5.969%. However, there are good trends: the number of recovered cases is creeping up, and the numbers of new cases and new active cases have dropped. Active cases are those remaining after deaths and recoveries have been accounted for. The number of new cases peaked at 101,085 on April 4, and is less than half of that today, 49,662.
The decrease in new illness has two explanations. One is that the social distancing policies enacted by many countries around the world are having the desired effect. The other is that Covid-19 is seasonal like other cold viruses, and we are moving into spring now. Probably both of these contribute to the drops.
The number of deaths worldwide is lower today than it was yesterday. It is too early to know if that is a trend.
All of these numbers are lagging indicators. Covid-19 has a average incubation of 5 days, variable between 2 and 14 days. Thus, social distancing measures practiced today affect the case count several days into the future. Deaths occur between 2 and 8 weeks after infection, again affecting future numbers. That said, the graphs today are looking good, and I am cautiously optimistic about the future.
I should note that according to the Johns Hopkins tracker, we have not yet reached 1.5 million cases, but that is on track to occur later today.
Please let me know if anyone wants to see my graphs. I did not post them because there are already several graphs in the original post.
JHU is all screwed up right now.
They are still showing the same numbers from before 18:30
yesterday even though they show they updated since.
The updates dropped overall cases, deaths, and recoveries.
Their own numbers don’t verify their deaths or recoveries
on those two lists they present on the main page.
They haven’t for three weeks to a month.
Here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
You’re welcome to post your graphs here.
Post away...
I know folks enjoy them.
I hesitate to post my graphs today that I have doubts about the timeliness of Johns Hopkins. I will, however, keep track of the numbers from both sources now and keep an eye on what the trends look like either way. They should converge at some point.
Thank you. Looking for more good news on the horizon.
“The number of deaths worldwide is lower today than it was yesterday.”
They’re coming back to life? OH NO, ZOMBIES!!
(Yes, I know you were referring to the numbers of deaths on each single day, not the total number of deaths to date. The way it was phrased could be misinterpreted, though.)
Not sure where you’re getting the numbers you are posting but here appears to be one glaring inaccuracy...
Your number:
“04/08 435,160 35,231 3,678
Our number of new cases excellerated yesterday. You can see the numbers. Waaaaaa...”
31935 new cases and 1940 new deaths in the United States(Worldometer).
Bookmark
Thanks again, D1! Just a comment on the daily “New Cases” column for the US numbers: It’s pretty obvious now that we have several weeks of data that the weekend numbers are light as if there is no reporting being done, and that inflates the next 2 days or so. Are you aware of any specific reasons for this? Has this been discussed anywhere in your research?
I get my data for that part generally from JHU.
Yesterday I pulled down a JHU report around 18:30.
At 22:00 JHU was showing an update at 19:30. The problem was, their numbers had dropped significantly from the prior report I recorded. And to top it all off, they didn’t update again until way after midnight.
I close out at midnight, and couldn’t use JHU.
I had to scramble to use WorldoMeter to close out.
JHU and WorldoMeter take turns leapfrogging each other. One will have greater numbers and then the other one does.
Evidently the utilization of WorldoMeter picked up more numbers than it should have. Starting off the day with either and switching could cause the data to be skewed, accurate, but sketchy too.
Neither firm is providing bad data, but they process data close to the same time, but not exactly the same.
Sticking with one company is optimal, but I didn’t have a choice.
WoM has some countries JHU doesn’t and JHU has some WoM doesn’t.
Off 1,519,000 and change, I was able to recondite within 18 cases using WOM.
I should have made a disclaimer, but didn’t think of it.
I’ll mention it in tomorrow morning’s post.
Very helpful, thank you for your efforts.
Small point: I think you mean ‘accelerate’ not ‘excellerate’. ‘Accelerate’ means to increase. ‘Excel’ is a spreadsheet program made by Micro$oft.
As always, great, over the top work!
I have a question. I go to Worldometer, the source I use for tracking daily U.S. cases, and see 31,935 cases on the new cases graph. In your report above under the heading, “Declared Cases in the United States” you are reporting 35,231.
By Worldometer the daily new cases peaked on Saturday, 4/4 at 34,196. The growth in new cases per day peaked the next day at 5,015.
By my guess (and hope) the growth trend has likely broken with these tops/peaks.
One other interesting factoid is testing. The number of pending tests are declining. Yesterday was 17,228. Over the last four or five days, that number has hovered in the 15K to 17K range. Prior to that, it was in the 60K range (back to 3/28). Also, the three day moving average for the number of tests seems to be pointing down. Maybe they’ve run out of people to test. The total test through yesterday for the entire period is 2,189,766. These are all U.S. numbers.
By the way, I like my new case number from Worldometer better :-). What is the source of your number?
Finally, in my opinion, it sure looks like a peak here in the U.S.
I just saw your comment about skewed numbers. I always use Worldometer so I am comparing apples to apples. The new case number for yesterday, as I noted previously on Worldometer, was 31,935. It still shows that number now.
Thanks again.
I never said WoM was inaccurate or wrong.
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