There is a Taoist story:
The Emperor called his physician and wanted to reward him as the greatest physician in all the empire.
he said “I am the youngest of three brothers and the least effective doctor. My middle brother only visits the person once, writes a prescription and the person is well, my oldest brother doesn’t leave the house, just identifies preventive measures and no one knows his name”
The point is - the numbers are lower BECAUSE we implemented preventive measures
We can see it by comparing Denmark and Sweden - Denmark has 5 million people in a far more compressed area. Sweden has 10 million people - out of which about 5 million are in the concentrated area in the south - the Oresund region.
Denmark implemented strict quarantine and social distancing and closing down restaurants etc. Sweden did not.
Today, 9th April,
Denmark has 5402 cases and 218 deaths
Sweden has 8419 cases and 687 deaths
Sweden has three times more deaths.
I think this does show that social distancing and harsh measures has worked in preventing more deaths.
How many?