Posted on 04/08/2020 3:39:15 PM PDT by datura
Commentary by author, credentials at end of article:
When I was a young child growing up, I read and consumed books ferociously. One book I picked up at a garage sale piqued my interest. It was “How Japan Plans to Win.” In the book, published in 1940 (before Pearl Harbor), but developed from notes and thoughts in the 1930s, a vocal and energized Japanese Naval Officer theorized a strategy to defeat the United States in the Pacific. It sounded pretty prescient of things that played out shortly after its original publication.
I always thought—“How could this have happened? Here’s their plan and intent, and we were still caught off guard.” A gestating adversary published and outlined the roadmap establishing a pathway to war in the most destructive world-wide conflict of the 20th century. How did we miss this? Why weren’t we prepared? Here an adventurist and forward leaning staff officer telegraphs intent, detail, and plan and the reaction of the national security apparatus in pre-World War II America gave this hiding-in-plain-sight indicator a big “Ho-Hum.” Sound familiar?
After a career, and perhaps a second, third, and fourth career in national security (depending on how it’s counted), I now have seen how these things happen. The world panorama is busy, confusing, and distracting. For senior leaders, planners, and staffers, it’s called the world of VUCA—Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous.
It’s the duty of national security professionals to drive to closure, despite the VUCA, and deliver national security for the American People and our strategic partners. However, indicators of intent are often overlooked as even the best, most professional, and most lucid minded are barraged and often put on sensory overload by multiple, concurrent events. Too much data, too much noise, too much chaff.
One time in the recent past in a discussion with a senior colleague in regard to an urgent developing issue I was raising, my colleague responded and said (I’m paraphrasing a bit), “You’re absolutely right—this is a key phenom that’s being overlooked, and I’m very concerned by it. However, myself and our national mission team are bleeding from our eyeballs with mission overload with all the alligators crawling into our canoe. I’m beating the alligators over the head with my paddle in the exact sequence prescribed by national priorities. The problem is, what you’ve identified is not yet on the national priority list of targets and topics.”
We were both right—there are complex phenom and there are immediate, identified alligators. So how do we see these new alligators that aren’t yet on the list? One way is to read their writings. They definitely read ours. Another very senior colleague recently quipped, “When I go to a public speaking event, I’m swarmed by PRC “academics” who’ve read my works in detail—they ask me voluminous questions about topics I don’t even remember.” They are reading our writings in detail. What about their writings?
WAR WITHOUT RULES
In regard to the CCP virus, there are overlooked missives of history and harbingers of things to come. While many were distracted by Russia Russia Russia or other silliness of grievance and narcissism, the intent and strategy of a Great Power Competitor was being laid out right in front of us.
Two Chinese Air Force Colonels met in the 1990s and started to dialogue, formulate, and envision what decisive conflict with the United States would look like. It would be unconstrained by any existing international convention. Everything would be on the table. The outcome? The 1999 book with the chilling title, “China: War Without Rules.”
Essentially, to win, China would not be limited, adhere, or conform to the accepted norms of warfare between nation states. To them, these were Western rules meant to give western powers, essentially the United States, an advantage. Eye gouging, and everything else, would be on the table. The first rule of this fight club—there are no rules.
A second issuance, even more timely in light of current events and I would say more disturbing and concerning, was a treatise by Dr. Guo Jiwei in 2010, a medical doctor and staff member at the People’s Liberation Army, Third Military Medical University in the Army University entitled, “War for Biological Dominance.”
The foundational thesis was clear. If China loses 100 million people, that’s only 1 in 12. Canada and Australia lose 100 million, that’s everyone, plus a sizable swath of Americans. Ergo—the return on investment is well worth it. Biological Warfare would be the “Strategic Commanding Heights” of the showdown with the United States. Clausewitz, Sun Tzu, and every other strategist would lunge at this, was the essence of Guo’s logic. And if there were no rules, why not?
Well if that one doesn’t get your attention; I don’t know what will. I was very involved in national security affairs at high levels in 2010 and I can ensure everyone that biological warfare, offensive or defensive, was not on the top 100 list of important national security concerns, topics, or actions.
VIGILANCE
Colonels, Captains, and other professional staff members and their writings before, during, and after Senior Service Schools can be a little edgy for two reasons. One they want to garner a little more attention before the next promotion board, or two, they feel a sense of tenure in saying things they couldn’t say at lower levels or can’t if they achieve the next level.
A parallel exemplar to the CCP telegraphic writings previously mentioned was when I was in Singapore and the speaker from some PRC ministry with an overly long title was giving a speech. The frenzied way she shook her fist at the camera (ignoring the audience) and shouted while smiling in a bizarre, almost crazed manner, was definitely theatrical—and way over the top. So over the top that she looked like she was about to climb over the speaker’s podium and lunge at the camera.
After the speaker was done, I asked my colleague next to me what that frenzied performance was all about. She chuckled a bit and said, “She wasn’t speaking to us—she was performing for the Central Committee in Beijing. It’s all about the grade back home.” And this was long before the concept of social credit score from a totalitarian system was implemented or well known.
What’s the takeaway? Read their writings and take them to heart. They read, study, and analyze ours. The price of freedom is vigilance—part of that vigilance is being aware of their writings, statements, and intent.
Was this contagion part of their strategy? I’m not sure we’ll ever know for sure, but totalitarians are unconstrained by any concept of constitutional boundaries and have no problem with ignoring the guard rails of functional, civil society even if it means discarding 1 in 12 of their own citizenry.
Col. (Ret.) John Mills is a national security professional with service in five eras, Cold War, Peace Dividend, War on Terror, World in Chaos, and now—Great Power Competition. He is the former Director of Cybersecurity Policy, Strategy, and International Affairs in the Department of Defense.
China didn’t “discover” the genome of the virus quickly after the outbreak, they already had it. Their actions from the beginning of this “outbreak” point directly to weaponized use of this, especially for those of us who have many years of experience inside China.
The Middle Kingdom has transitioned to WMD warfare against us, while our political left - Chinese owned allies - attacks us from within.
Interesting times indeed.
If there is war, the ‘Wuhan Institute of Virology’ or whatever the hell it hides, should be one of the early targets.
And if you think the Chinese are determined to have an all-out catastrophe and Chaos right up front you might be wrong. The Chinese are very patient if it takes a hundred years to achieve a goal and that’s okay with them.
Was this contagen part of their overall strategy? You bet your snakeskin boots.
Of course China intends to defeat any impediment to world domination . They are relentless as communists are born to be. It is their only purpose. Of course such tactics will be ruthless. Why be so naive as to their plans. China has made this known, it will happen.
One of the rules I live my life by.... When someone tells you who they are, and what they are going to do.... believe them
Look at the worst numbers: ports of entry. New Orleans, New York and Washington state.
The former mayor of Xiamen will do anything required to retain power. He self-styles as Mao’s successor, to bring Communism to the entire Earth. Think Cultural Revolution, to lose a few million is not chaos to Beijing, it is merely accounting.
I was in Xiamen when One Belt One Road was made public, and the BRIC representatives were there. The preparations and construction projects dwarfed the hospitals in Wuhan.
Americans have NO CLUE about Chinese thought, to the point of horror for me. They are the Soviets crosses with the Nazis, and are hell bent on world domination.
That is great advice to all!
Excellent post. BTTT.
What would the response of the United States to a covert targeted biological attack look like?
XieXie FRiend
Fauci just played the race card. I am beyond disgusted.
I have wondered from the President’s first press conference on the virus when he said “we know where this came from”, if that wasn’t a warning to Xi Jinping. It is national doctrine to respond to WMD use with nuclear.
Thank God that hasn’t happened.
But if the CCP goes after Taiwan, I doubt we sit back and watch. I can’t imagine a conventional conflict with the PLA remaining conventional for more than a few engagements.
Good article
Here’s what doesn’t make sense though ...
yes the bio-attack strategy might work if you’re launching total war, BUT that would amount to China attacking everyone (including Russia - you think they’ll forgive?) - great way to turn the the whole World against you. Even the Nazis learned you get defeated if you have to fight everyone.
plus, we see now that this wasn’t a knock-out blow, and one of the end results is many supply chains will move OUT of China after this ... so China has basically jacked itself over if this was part of a biowarfare plan. And, people will be now on the alert for any possible repeats in the future, which would only further damage China’s image
Really stupid stategy if it was deliberate ... has to have been an accidental RELEASE, though they may have been secretly working on it as a bioweapon ... which would explain why they can’t admit it was an accident
A rat is a rat is a rat. He showed his colors. No doubt Trump noticed. He has tolerated the little shit because he has had to. The President knows he cannot just toss him but there other ways.
He HAS to get rid of that twerp!!!!
China is fighting a war of attrition. Time and pressure and useful media along with those like the director of WHO.
I don’t know this thing is in 194 countries. A rather clumsy way to attack the US. It may have gotten out before they were ready for one thing mortality rate is less than 2% worst case. Although it could be a trial run tor something a hell of a lot worse. I don’t believe it came from bat soup that’s for damn sure.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.