Sweden, which refused to implement a Coronavirus lockdown, has so far avoided a mass outbreak. Now it's bracing for a potential surge in deaths.

Business Insider ^ | 04/07/2020 | Sinead Baker

[SeekAndFind]

Sweden, which broke international trends and didn't implement a lockdown in its bid to slow the coronavirus, has so far avoided a mass outbreak. But it's now bracing for a potential surge.

As European countries moved into strict lockdown mode — ranging from the closure of non-essential businesses, to police-enforced orders for people not to leave their homes — Sweden carried on almost as normal.

The country moved to protect the most vulnerable while doing little to slow the virus through the rest of the population as most workplaces, restaurants, and bars were still open.

People have been urged to practice social distancing and avoid traveling to help the slow the virus' spread. The government only restricted social gatherings to a maximum of 50 people, a revision down from 500 people before.

Sweden has not seen a mass outbreak like some other European countries like Italy and Spain. But it has not completely avoided the virus: As of Tuesday morning, the country has reported just over 7,200 cases and 477 deaths.

On Saturday, Prime Minister Stefan Löfven warned that the coronavirus may have spread slower in Sweden than in many other countries, but that did not mean it could avoid its worst effects.

"We have chosen a strategy of trying to flatten the curve and not get too dramatic a process, because then the healthcare system probably will not cope," he told Sweden's Dagens Nyheter newspaper, according to The Guardian.

"But it also means that we will have more seriously ill people who need intensive care, we will have significantly more deaths. We will count the dead in thousands."

Sweden's parliament may also introduce more restrictive measures, which could include shutting transport links, closing shops and restaurants, and putting new limits on public gathering.

[SeekAndFind]

Some scientists and health experts have been critical of Sweden’s response, which resembles an earlier plan in the UK that proposed the virus should move through most of the population so that they could build up a “herd immunity.”

That plan in the UK was abandoned when modelling showed it would have resulted in up to 250,000 deaths.

[Brilliant]

They say that Sweden doesn’t need to social distance because so many of its people live alone.

[dfwgator]

Muslims won’t obey a lockdown. Expect Malmo to get hit hard.

[DivineMomentsOfTruth]

Sounds like 6 of one, half dozen of the other.

[Brilliant]

Yes. That is the exception. The immigrants don’t live alone.

[House Atreides]

“...That plan in the UK was abandoned when modelling showed it would have resulted in up to 250,000 deaths.”
********************************************
Yes and we know how fantastic and highly accurate those modeling algorithms have been. /sarc

[brownsfan]

The world is rooting against Sweden. Sweden didn’t fall in line, so now they must be scorned.

The article states Sweden is bracing for a surge in deaths. How does that make them different from NY, Ohio, CA or Italy?

[wastoute]

If the curves I saw aren’t fake, Sweden may be about to get spanked.

[bigdaddy45]

The world is rooting against the most politically correct country in the world. It’s going to be very difficult for some to pick sides

[DoodleBob]

In line with my prior posts on a proper relative comparison of deaths across the world, below is today's update with April 6th totals for the US and other countries that started their round of golf on March 26. While the US' time series ends on Day 13 (which is April 6 - and is basis of the order, i.e., I sorted the data by Day 13 values), I am publishing other countries future totals/'golfer's scores' who are on hole 8 while we're at hole 4.

The US' ranking in this group of countries hasn't changed in the past few days. But the relative ranking of other countries keeps moving around; the 'hands-off' countries like Sweden and the Netherlands are rising in the ranks (which isn't a good thing). It's also worth noting the Spain AND the UK continue to look like hell on this adjusted basis.

As I said previously, I'd prefer to be lower in this bodies-on-the-cart analysis, but for now it is what it is. Pray for everyone.

Country	Date of Day 1/1,000 population-adjusted deaths	Day 11	Day 12	Day 13	Day 14	Day 15	Day 16	Day 17
Andorra	3/21/20	51,000	59,500	63,750	68,000	72,250	76,500	89,250
San Marino	3/3/20	49,079	49,079	49,079	68,711	68,711	107,974	107,974
West Bank and Gaza	3/25/20	28,167	28,167	28,167	-	-	-	-
Spain	3/13/20	16,170	19,647	25,518	30,541	35,950	41,855	47,600
United Kingdom	3/15/20	15,528	19,326	25,357	34,021	41,018	47,016	59,744
Belgium	3/19/20	12,325	14,670	20,160	23,678	28,911	32,686	36,689
France	3/18/20	11,384	12,828	14,887	17,353	19,864	26,521	32,034
Netherlands	3/17/20	10,330	12,086	14,579	16,335	19,640	22,189	25,324
Italy	3/5/20	9,896	11,805	13,692	16,291	18,627	22,057	26,395
Sweden	3/23/20	9,823	11,417	11,896	12,789	15,213	-	-
Ireland	3/25/20	9,174	10,580	11,651	-	-	-	-
Luxembourg	3/17/20	8,052	9,663	11,273	11,810	12,347	15,568	16,105
United States	3/25/20	8,407	9,619	10,783	-	-	-	-
Switzerland	3/16/20	7,331	8,866	10,132	11,514	13,779	16,619	18,730
Macedonia	3/24/20	5,819	8,244	8,729	11,153	-	-	-
Portugal	3/23/20	6,702	7,889	8,530	9,460	9,973	-	-
Denmark	3/22/20	5,886	6,962	7,867	9,112	10,131	10,584	-
Germany	3/25/20	5,723	6,278	7,174	-	-	-	-
Austria	3/23/20	5,849	6,219	6,885	7,552	8,144	-	-
Iran	3/9/20	5,078	5,667	6,154	6,664	7,166	7,649	8,214
Cyprus	3/23/20	3,762	4,139	4,139	3,386	3,386	-	-
Iceland	3/23/20	3,619	3,619	3,619	3,619	5,428	-	-

[lastchance]

I think that no matter if it is a strict or somewhat casual approach taken regarding the virus you will see a surge in deaths at some point. Keeping that surge down should be the goal because it can’t be avoided all together. The number of dead may still be the same in the end but the point is to keep the critically ill from overwhelming the health care system.

Not only that a high surge in infections means it will spread that much faster because it is more difficult to isolate people. That is one reason reaching a plateau is so important.

[stuck_in_new_orleans]

And if the numbers surge they’ll come begging for help. Hope the help they do get is slow. They should have acted sooner.

[tinyowl]

Yeah - Sweden's new cases have peaked, but the death spank comes a couple weeks after.

They may, in the end, wind up looking a lot like every other country.

Then the HindSiters and FluBros will all claim it was a conspiracy.

But it's important to remember that 6 and 8 weeks ago, there was no way to know that for sure. It was PROBABLE but there were no real hard numbers and you couldn't trust China.

Erring on the side of caution -> you could argue for or against it -> but the hindsiters and flubros extreme mocking of it isn't rational. It's an insurance style question when you only have a risk range rather than hard #'s, not a black and white one.

[seawolf101]

[SmokingJoe]

Thank you.

[brownsfan]

I’m more interested in accuracy than in proving any point. I chafe at the lockdown, but if it is ultimately the better path, I’ll shut up and deal with it.

I’m not a medical professional, but my understanding is that the approach Sweden is taking will result in more infections and deaths short term. But, eventually, Sweden will settle down, and naturally flatten their curve, with the added benefit of round two in the fall being negligible.

[L,TOWM]

The Netherlands did their thing pretty much like Sweden. I think those two did things a lot smarter than we did.

[brownsfan]

“Yeah - Sweden’s new cases have peaked, but the death spank comes a couple weeks after. “

The bottom line is what matters. How will Sweden stack up after round #2? Everyone is setting the panic in place for round #2 even before round #1 hits. For round #2, Sweden’s herd should be reasonably immune.

[Yo-Yo]

So we have a confirmed number of cases in Sweden, who did not implement strict stay-at-home orders, and a confirmed number of cases in comparable countries Norway and Finland, both of whom did implement early work-from-home rules.

We can now compare the effectiveness of severe, economy-killing stay-at-home edicts on the rise in cases to a more reasoned approach.

According to this website, as of April 7th, Sweden has a rate of 714 COVID-19 cases per 1 million people, Norway has 1,062 cases per 1 million people, and Finland has 393 per 1 million.

So the severe lockdowns instituted in Norway and Finland bracketed the relatively hands-off approach of Sweden.

This questions the effectiveness of our severe lock downs here in America in "flattening the curve."