In one of my favorite Three Stooges episode, Curly backs into a cactus and ends up with dozens of needles sticking out of his behind. Moe grabs a pair of pliers and starts pulling them out, making Curly yelp. Larry, though, grabs a pair of scissors and starts snipping the needles off.
"Hey!" cries Moe, "you're leavin' the ends in!"
"So what?" Larry replies. "They don't show!"
The models were constructed based on the assumption that no measures would be taken to control the spread of Covid-19.
The biology of the virus is what drives the models, and why countries all over the world have instituted strict social distancing measures. A cold virus that causes over 5% mortality in people it infects cannot be taken lightly.
Remember the social distancing guidelines when the 2015 Ebola outbreak occurred? Oh, wait—they didn’t happen. Because Ebola is a bloodborne pathogen, not a respiratory virus, there was no need to implement any kind of control measures. So back then, some people panicked, and I posted all kinds of information on why there was no need to worry. And that outbreak was contained, and no one has paid any attention to subsequent outbreaks because there really is nothing to worry about.
Knowing a pathogen’s characteristics is the key to knowing what kind of response is necessary.
It isn’t entirely true that shutting down the economy was the wrong thing to do. It is a matter of perspective. If you are a Democrat, it was necessary to stop Donald Trump from saying things about how black unemployment was at its lowest point in history, along with all the other things he could point to as accomplishments in his illegitimate presidency. The virus came at a very auspicious time, saving our social safety net from being destroyed by full employment and excessive capitalism.
And remember the uproar over California’s gig economy law? You were hearing a lot about that before the shutdown, even from artists and actors put out of work by it. But they aren’t complaining now, because everyone is out of work
So it really worked out very well, a smashing success, and the longer it can be stretched out, the better for Joe Biden’s vice president.
I like to call it the Jor-El Syndrome.
Scientists who think they are all so freaking brilliant that ONLY BY LISTENING TO ME can you poor wretches possibly hope to save yourselves!
VDH makes another point which is worth hammering in - we know most of the early, i.e. Chinese, data were and remain crap. Even if the models were sound (that isn't a given) you're stuck trying to make policy based either on bad data or no data at all. And it isn't just politics, lives depend on it. So, is it better to be an alarmist or a Pollyanna, since you'll be criticized for both?
We're now - I hope - at the stage where a little hindsight is faced with a similar quandary: how much of the results we're actually seeing is the result of an overestimate and how much due to actions taken? Either way, count me in the Optimist column. We're not through this thing yet and there will be a lot of rebuilding but it's pretty certain that the worst-case estimates were wrong.
I take it he means "salutary."
VDH always a good read
Eeyore is my favorite literary character, second is not even close.
“Good morning, Pooh. If it is a good morning. Which I doubt”
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
— H. L. Mencken
This hobgoblin isn’t imaginary, but it could easily be argued it was exaggerated.
Mean while as a basically ignorant optimist comparing apples to rutabagas, Rush is every day jumping the shark.
It’s embarrassing to listen to his mish mash
VDH started with a promising premise, then buried it in an unwarranted avalanche of thirty-dollar words.
Eeyore’s best known saying is “Thanks for noticing”, where he is acknowledging someone having noted that he is present.
VDH does not appear content until the most erudite is reaching for the dictionary.
Eeyore=pessimist=Dr. Wasshole
He wants to kill Grandma.