Posted on 04/05/2020 11:09:18 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
More than 85% of Americans are under stay-at-home orders, and at least one-third of the world is under some type of lockdown.
The restrictions promote social distancing to "flatten the curve," or keeping the number of coronavirus infections at a level that won't overwhelm healthcare systems. But keeping so many people at home is also tanking the global economy and depriving students of education. About 10 million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance in the past two weeks, and the US restaurant industry had hemorrhaged about $25 billion as of March 22. Major universities have switched to remote classes, and public schools are closed indefinitely in states including California, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Plus, of course, staying at home is making many of us lonely and stir-crazy. So the question on many people's minds is: When will the lockdowns end?
Experts can't say for sure. The US's social-distancing guidelines have been extended through at least April 30. According to Davidson Hamer, a professor of global health and medicine at Boston University, some relief could come in mid-May. Epidemiologists at Harvard University think intermittent lockdowns may need to extend into 2022, with social-distancing measures in place 25% to 70% of the time.
However, a new antibody test rolling out in the US within weeks offers a glimmer of hope. These tests will be able to tell whether a person has already had COVID-19, regardless of whether they showed symptoms. A positive result would mean they're probably immune.
Widespread antibody testing could divide America into two groups: the vulnerable, and the recovered. The latter could slowly go back to work, breathing life into the US economy and helping us get back on track before a vaccine becomes available.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Viral experts at Business Insider.
When?
What about reports that the recovered have contracted it again?
that dang swab test looks horrible-
Sounds like I need to get the virus quickly where I can feed my family. Should’ve gone to Florida and partied with the college aged kids over Spring Break. Win-Win.
RE; What about reports that the recovered have contracted it again?
Most of these tests are from CHINA. The Spanish, Czechs, Dutch and Filipinos have discovered that the test kits sent to them from China are over 50% defective ( as high as 80% to 70% in the case of Czech Republic and Spain ).
People are going “stir crazy” after two weeks?
What a bunch of pansy asses the US has become. These stories make the country sound so weak it’s sad.
Test for anti bodies and get released. That’s fine. But really? Two weeks to too much for folks?
Pansy Ass is running and hiding in your house based upon the commands of power hungry politicians.
“Other US companies are already selling antibody tests abroad. The California biotech company Biomerica sells coronavirus antibody tests for less than $10 in Europe and the Middle East, while Chembio Diagnostics, a medical-device company based in New York, is sending its antibody tests to Brazil and plans to study them in the US, Reuters reported last week.
The UK government bought 3.5 million at-home antibody tests last week and is looking to distribute them to people who are self-isolating as soon as possible, The Guardian reported. Australia has ordered 1.5 million tests.”
Huh? And why aren’t they being sold here?
Time to throw to pull the pin on this hand grenade and then throw it into the melee:
Covid-19 – The tipping point?
Tom Jefferson, Carl Heneghan, March 30, 2020
A quick look at the distribution of SARS 2 cases around southern Europe shows that viral circulation is widespread. [1] Higher incidence may be explained (at least in part) by the old adage “seek and thou shall find”. Translated into technospeak, it’s ascertainment bias.[2]
If you test, test, test you will find. [3] Epidemics are no strangers to ascertainment bias. In the spring of 1918 military censorship ensured that most information relating to a mysterious acute respiratory syndrome was suppressed. Except for places like Spain which had not joined the war and had no censorship. So selective release of information made it look like most cases came from the Iberian peninsula – hence the name “Spanish flu”.
Technospeak notwithstanding, there can be little doubt that Covid 19 may be far more widely distributed than some may believe. At the time the first symptomatic case was diagnosed In Vo Euganeo, Italy, about 3% had already been infected – most were asymptomatic. [4]
Nor can there be little doubt that the price of lockdown to society and economic paralysis is likely to be paid for generations to come. In the short term economic devastation seems certain, imposing a heavy penalty on us and probably successive generations.
In Bergamo, Italy, clinicians reflected on how to prepare for the next outbreak. Their view is that focussing on hospitals is the wrong way to manage COVID. [5]
The symptoms of COVID-19 are unusual, wide-ranging, and in some cases can be severe: over-referral can lead to significant numbers either turning up or sent into hospital. The disease then spreads rapidly in hospital settings. [5] Healthcare workers have both a higher risk of exposure, and of being the vectors of onwards transmission – as happened in the 2002-3 SARs outbreak.
Because there are no licensed treatments for COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions, management of complications and early recognition of those deteriorating and most likely to benefit from hospitalisation, should be the mainstay of management.
Changing the emphasis from hospitals to the community could avert a disaster for the wider population. Care in the home setting restricts movements of the infected. All those with a fever and a cough should stay at home; they could be prescribed pulse oximeters, and oxygen could be delivered to severely affected cases; rescue antibiotics prescribed along with daily video-monitoring could be used to detect deterioration. In the older population, the mildly ill and the recovering, food supplies should be delivered at home.
Older Patients admitted to hospital are at greater risk of delirium, pressure sores, adverse effects of new medications, malnutrition and hospital-acquired infections. [6] An older person admitted to hospital runs the risk of never seeing the light of day again. This is probably the clearest message coming from Italy.
Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle. What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?
Tom Jefferson is a senior associate tutor and honorary research fellow, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, University of Oxford.
Carl Heneghan is Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine and Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1FWCUd_3sET8wwWzP1bNnXVsQ-euyo3JpoD0QeHFDWhY/edit
Disclaimer: the article has not been peer-reviewed and the sources cited should be checked. The views expressed in this commentary represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the host institution, the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health. The views are not a substitute for professional medical advice.
References
1 [No title]. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Communicable-disease-threats-report-28-mar-2020_0.pdf (accessed 29 Mar 2020).
2 Ascertainment bias – Catalog of Bias. Catalog of Bias. 2017.https://catalogofbias.org/biases/ascertainment-bias/ (accessed 29 Mar 2020).
3 WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 – 16 March 2020. https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19—16-march-2020 (accessed 30 Mar 2020).
4 Crisanti A, Cassone A. In one Italian town, we showed mass testing could eradicate the coronavirus | Andrea Crisanti and Antonio Cassone. the Guardian. 2020.http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/eradicated-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo (accessed 29 Mar 2020).
5 [No title]. https://catalyst.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/CAT.20.0080 (accessed 30 Mar 2020).
6 Older Patients: Common Risks for Seniors in the Hospital. https://www.parentgiving.com/elder-care/older-patients-at-risk-in-the-hospital/ (accessed 30 Mar 2020).
“What is known is that more than 647,000 people per year die from heart disease in this country, according to the CDC; and more than 599,000 die from cancer.
What is also obvious is that many if not most Americans are now living in fear of the newest disease to threaten in ways they never lived in fear of those old, established diseases.”
https://mustreadalaska.com/an-infection-of-fear/
[[Epidemiologists at Harvard University think intermittent lockdowns may need to extend into 2022, with social-distancing measures in place 25% to 70% of the time.]]
Seriously? This is government takeover of people’s lives- plain and simple- This seriously is seeming like it’s setting up end times one world government crap where they control every aspect of your life- Bill gates and the idiotic chip infused vaccine- Government telling folks when they can and can’t work- when they can and can’t socialize- people being arrested for simply going out and enjoying themselves out in the wilds away from everyone else- pastors being arrested etc- This is end times crap-
Give everyone the HCQ- send everyone back out into life- and be done with it- folks will still get the virus but nowhere near as bad for the sick and elderly- work on the blood plasma treatment in the meantime- and be done with this nonsense-
RE: Huh? And why aren’t they being sold here?
Errr... we have a very powerful Federal organization with Police powers called — THE FDA.
WELCOME to FREEREPUBLIC
They want to test everyone for antibodies then brand those who pass.
“...Viral experts...”
Well they are now that they have discovered a “new” type of test.
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