KATIE ARMSTRONG, NG STAFF. SOURCE: IMPERIAL COLLEGE COVID-19 RESPONSE TEAM
Posted on 04/04/2020 4:47:57 PM PDT by daniel1212
While countries around the world began to lock down workplaces, schools, and public gatherings in response to the rapidly spreading coronavirus, the United Kingdom’s initial strategy sent many into an uproar....
The strategy, an attempt to build “herd immunity,” involved allowing “enough of us who are going to get mild illness to become immune,” Sir Patrick Vallance, the U.K. government’s chief scientific adviser...
After new simulations of the outbreak from Imperial College London showed how badly hospitals would be overwhelmed, the U.K. suddenly reversed course on Monday and introduced new social distancing measures...
Still, the question of herd immunity’s role in slowing the coronavirus lingers because of how it might determine the success of vaccine development—and the chances that the virus may flare back up once social distancing policies end.
Viruses are stealthy. They disguise themselves as they infect a host and penetrate that host’s cells, which gives them a head start over the body’s immune response. Once a cell recognizes certain telltale signs of a pathogen, it throws out an alarm signal to the immune system. But because the virus has that head start, it still has time to replicate itself and infect a new host before the immune system can catch up.
Immune responses within a cell can take around 24 hours to trigger..A full-blown immune response can take another three days—which means that a respiratory virus like the flu, which can replicate in as little as eight hours, is way ahead of the game.
That’s why someone’s first experience with an infectious disease can be so nasty. The immune system is not so easily tricked a second time: When it’s beaten an invader once, it keeps a specialized weapons cache dedicated to that particular pathogen, ready to mount a high-speed reaction if it’s ever detected again.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalgeographic.com ...
KATIE ARMSTRONG, NG STAFF. SOURCE: IMPERIAL COLLEGE COVID-19 RESPONSE TEAM
Already a questionable source.
Too far away from Wyoming to know what is going on out there.
It is estimated that about 80% of those infected with Covid-19 experience a mild case [WHO said the like] – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment. while a study in Iceland reports that half of coronavirus carriers show no symptoms, which statistically lowers the death rate vs. calculating it from reported cases. Those who are most vulnerable to death from Covid-19 are the aged with certain other heath conditions, thus 80 percent of US coronavirus deaths are people 65 and older. Then again, America murders over 2,000 of the most vulnerable souls a day (2017: https://www.guttmacher.org/fact-sheet/induced-abortion-united-states), while (for perspective) about 90 people die each day in the US from crashes, which are among the over 7,000 Americans who die every day in the US from a wide range of causes. (https://www.weisspaarz.com/leading-causes-death-by-state/)
But all die, and the most important matter is where and with whom you spend eternity. Hell is just as real as Heaven, the devil is real and so is Christ, and what we do with Him determines our eternal location.
Indeed, but did you read "see graphic" and see my top comment: "Note the below was evidently based on discredited extreme predictions from Imperial College:"
There is NO SUCH THING as “herd immunity”! What is called “herd immunity” is just a lack of exposure.
I looked at the graphic and saw a ridiculously low hospital limit.
UW has their State x State models [not updated for a few days for some reason] that show most States are not projected to be in nearly as much trouble.
Projected Peak dates vary by almost 4 weeks. The State distribution end tails look to have even greater variability.
That is certainly a solution... get it, recover, immunity.
Tell me where I’m getting this wrong.
I’m in a room with 20 people. Six of them have gotten the virus and recovered without any too horrible symptoms. They are supposedly done with it.
What does that do to protect the 14 who have not picked up the virus.
FLubros will be devastated.
To further expound on my question, there is an infected area on the counter top in the kitchen. How does the fact that several people in the room (or general population) are immune keep any of the 14 non-immune people from catching it.
Reread the article. It actually supports the Flubro idea, which is that the virus is serious (as is the flu) and has to be controlled as much as possible but exposure is actually a good thing, building up the immune population, and ultimately protects even the vulnerable.
This is because once many people have either had it or been vaccinated - which we can’t do yet - the virus can’t spread very fast because its potential hosts reject it. Therefore it declines overall and the vulnerable as well are less likely to get it simply because there’s way less of it in circulation.
Flubro here....hospitals are not overrun...we should just relax and not social distance.
Exactly...Flubros know.
First of all, while it can be spread by contact, after a short time on a surface, the virus is much less active and much weaker. You can possibly get it if you touch your nose (it’s an upper respiratory virus), but unless somebody had freshly sneezed on the surface, it’s far less likely. An actual sneeze or cough from an infected person (wet bodily fluids) as usually
The point with building herd immunity is that the virus can’t jump from host to host - it may jump, but if the person is already immune, it can’t spread any further. So therefor it dies and can’t make the next jump. There is simply less of the virus in circulation, and it has to go through a long chain of transmission. This is the reason that in populations that have been vaccinated, even the few unvaccinated are protected simply because the virus is not hopping from person to person. And even if an unvaccinated person somehow gets it, they can’t pass it on because almost everybody else is immune.
You need to publish your findings immediately. You'll certainly win a Nobel Prize for your work overturning 100+ years of well-understood medical science.
Or, you could just be a crank who doesn't know what they are talking about.
Next thing, you'll be saying the Dunning-Kruger effect isn't real, just a lack of exposure...
You mean I cannot become immune to measles if I get it?
Been to the CCP-19 unit, have you?
Which hospitals are you talking about?
All of them? One of them? Several of them?
You driving around looking at each one?
I think I’ll put my life and the lives my loved in your hands, imp-imp.
Not.
He used ALL CAPS. This demonstrates the Fearper’s confidence and authority in rejecting the 100+ years of science supporting herd immunity.
Go expose yourself then.
Shouldn’t be too hard.
It’s just the flu.
/s
What does that do to protect the 14 who have not picked up the virus.
I'll treat your question as if it is genuine. What it does is: a) prevent you from catching the virus from any of the six who are immune, and b) mean that if any of the 14 who aren't immune are carriers, they will only infect 14 other people, rather than 20. At a 30% immunity rate, you don't have "herd" immunity, anyway. However, as the number of people who catch the disease and become immune increases, the likelihood that an infected person will encounter another susceptible person will decrease to the point where the virus will be less likely to spread at all. When 16 of the 20 people are immune, it is very unlikely that any of the other 4 will be carriers, and if they are, it is unlikely to spread very far (since only 4 of you can become sick). That is herd immunity.
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