Posted on 04/03/2020 1:43:54 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
Please FReep Mail me regarding the ping list
for these reports. Thanks.
COVID-19 Update
As of 04/02/2020 22:22 PDT (taken at 23:59)
Good morning everyone.
I'm coming to you today from Planet COVID-19,
my home office on the Left Coast of the U. S. A.
Thank you for dropping in to check out the Update.
New Feature: States, Territories, and Counties
Here is a spreadsheet with the States50, Territories5+,
and Counties200 listed alphabetically and by
declining case numbers. ACCESS
This Section Addresses the Situation Here in the
United States of America
To the report...
There Was Impressive Growth Again Yesteray
Let's go to the numbers...
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GRWTH GROWTH - compared to the day before
-
03/20 19,624 5,374 539
03/21 26,747 7,123 1,749
03/22 35,206 8,459 1,336
03/23 46,442 11,236 2,777
03/24 54,893 8,789 -2,427
03/25 60,197 13,966 5,177
03/26 85,991 16,794 2,828
03/27 104,839 18,848 2,054
03/28 124,665 19,826 978
03/29 143,025 18,360 -1,466
03/30 164,620 21,595 3,235
03/31 189,624 25,004 3,409
04/01 216,721 27,097 2,093
04/02 245,559 28,838 1.741
You can see where we've come from on this, and it should be fairly
The number of new cases continues to rise. I'm choosing to look
at it as an investment in massive recoveries to come. Nearly all
of the new cases will wind up with a recovery. We're already seeing
record numbers of them pile up. In days to come a veritable army
of recoveries will be documented each day.
Not to be disrespectful of those who won't make it through, I, and I
am sure each of you, are desturbed by their loss, and the negative
impact on their families.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie Continues to Grow
Once again, lets take a moment to address the U. S. portion of the
global declared cases.
I've mentioned that the U. S. has roughly 4.252% of the global
populace. In total we have declared 24.160% of all globally declared
cases. When it comes to the active cases, we have 30.482% of them.
Here is what the movement in those stats looks like.
DECLARED DAYS ACTIVE DAYS
DATE CASES CHGE CASES CHGE
-
03/20 7.125% 1.297% 10.934% 1.552%
03/21 8.704% 1.579% 13.000% 2.066%
03/22 10.377% 1.673% 15.343% 2.343%
03/23 12.170% 1.793% 17.411% 2.068%
03/24 13.053% 0.883% 18.369% 0.958%
03/25 14.657% 1.604% 20.190% 1.821%
03/26 16.140% 1.483% 21.454% 1.264%
03/27 17.530% 1.390% 22.920% 1.466%
03/28 18.742% 1.212% 24.126% 1.206%
03/29 19.762% 1.020% 25.289% 1.163%
03/30 20.936% 1.174% 26.777% 1.488%
03/31 22.045% 1.109% 27.885% 1.108%
04/01 23.110% 1.065% 29.120% 1.235%
04/02 24.160% 1.050% 30.482% 1.362%
With our numbers of declared cases moving up rapidly, there's still
Resolved Cases in the United States
We had 2,508 more cases resolved yesterday, bringing the total
resolved cases in the U. S. to 16,498. It wasn't a particularly
impressive day as far as resolutions go. The two prior days were
saw more resolutions come in.
Fatalities in the United States
PER INCR'SD
DATE FATAL DAY GROWTH - compared to day before
-
03/20 252 56 0
03/21 329 77 21
03/22 396 67 -10
03/23 489 93 26
03/24 581 92 -1
03/25 753 171 79
03/26 1,301 548 377
03/27 1,704 403 -145
03/28 2,229 525 122
03/29 2,484 255 -270
03/30 3,170 686 431
03/31 3,889 719 33
04/01 5,112 1,223 505
04/02 6,095 983 -240
Currently we have 229,061 active cases in the United States.
The following addresses the global numbers
without Mainland China
Global numbers increased at record levels today
Just before noon PDT, the global declared cases passed the
million case level, and the day before at about 08:00, the
number of people who have recovered passed the 200,000 mark.
Back to still more numbers...
EOD Day's INCR'SD
DATE CASES GROWTH GROWTH - compared to day before
-
03/20 194,148 30,824 5,185
03/21 225,932 31,784 963
03/22 257,820 31,888 104
03/23 297,172 39,352 7,464
03/24 341,530 41,462 2,110
03/25 390,378 48,848 7,386
03/26 451,006 60,628 11,780
03/27 516,124 65,118 4,490
03/28 583,107 66,983 1,865
03/29 641,588 58,481 -8,502
03/30 704,051 62,463 3,982
03/31 777,887 73,836 11,373
04/01 855,389 77,502 3,666
04/02 933,937 78,548 1,046
Roughly two weeks from now we will have upwards of 60 to 80
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day on 04/02/2020, there are:
1 nation(s) with 200,000 plus (take a bow...) 2 nation(s) with 100,000 to 199,999 4 nation(s) with 50,000 to 99,999 1 natiom(s) with 20,000 to 49,999 6 nation(s) with 10,000 to 19,999 6 nation(s) with 5,000 to 9,999 31 nation(s) with 1,000 to 4,999
51 nations with a 1,000 count or above...
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases
Here is a new display of numbers related to the topic.
It includes some Mainland China figures, but of the active
cases today, Mainland China only makes up 00.34% of the numbers.
It's inclusion here will have almost no impact on these figures.
End of day figures follow:
DECLAR DAY'S RESOLVED DAY'S PCT DEC ACTIVE
DATE CASES GROWTH CASES GROWTH CS RESOL CASES
-
03/20 - 275,434 - 30,911 - 99,655 - 3,590 - 36.181% - 175,779
03/21 307,280 31,846 105,425 5,770 34.309% 201,855
03/22 339,259 31,979 113,540 8,115 33.467% 225,719
03/23 - 381,621 - 42,362 - 118,369 - 4,829 - 31.017% - 263,252
03/24 423,121 41,500 127,538 9,169 30.142% 295,583
03/25 472,109 48,998 136,178 8,640 28.845% 335,931
03/26 - 532,788 - 60.679 - 146,749 - 10,571 - 27.544% - 386,039
03/27 598,070 65,282 159,533 12,784 26.675% 438,537
03/28 665,164 67,094 171,077 11,544 25.720% 494,087
03/29 - 723,740 - 58,576 - 186,060 - 14,983 - 25.708% - 537,680
03/30 786,291 62,551 203,926 17,848 25.933% 582,383
03/31 860,181 73,890 220,713 16,085 25.659% 639,468
04/01 - 937,783 - 77,602 - 241,591 - 20,878 - 25.762% - 696,192
04/02 1,016,401 78,618 264,935 23,344 26.066% 751,466
I've been mentioning that resolved percentage, and as you can see,
I'd like to make a bigger deal of it, because it's an important
part of things turning around, the fact that the percent of declared
cases is growing. First that happens, and in time the numbers of
active cases start dwindling. Unfortunately, I am not certain
this percentage will continue to grow. I hope so.
You can see how fast it was moving down until it hit the upper 25%
range, by checking out that fifth column there.
Fatalities Globally
PER INCR'SD
DATE FATAL DAY GROWTH - compared to the day before
-
03/20 11,399 1,369 149
03/21 13,049 1,650 281
03/22 14,706 1,657 7
03/23 16,563 1,857 300
03/24 18,919 2,356 499
03/25 21,308 2,389 33
03/26 24,077 2,769 380
03/27 27,761 3,684 915
03/28 30,852 3,091 -593
03/29 34,018 3,166 75
03/30 37,820 3,802 636
03/31 42,354 4,534 732
04/01 47,261 4,907 373
04/02 53,160 5,899 992
Currently there area 1,016,401 active cases around or world.
Population Saturation
Here are the figures revealing how many people in each
population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected
right now.
ENTITY PER 1 CASE - Globally : 10,340 Outside China : 10,375 The U. S. A. : 1,442 - ENTITY INFECTION RATE - Globally : 00.0089% Outside China : 00.0117% The U. S. A. : 00.0693% Look at the population saturation in the U. S. compared to others.
Not liking that...
New Feature: States, Territories, and Counties
Here is a spreadsheet with the States50, Territories5+,
and Counties200 listed alphabetically and by
declining case numbers. ACCESS
Good morning...
All data below sourced from Johns Hopkins University: LINK
...and WorldoMeters: Alternate Data Site
I have been downloading three to five reports per day since 01/27.
I work up the numbers and present them here. Yesterday I entered
counts for 207 global entities three times. The day before I did
it four times, and I have done it five times a number of times.
To verify the data is solid, I developed a Check Sum Matrix that
veryifies one number that has been derived using four different
methods. If one or more methods don't result in the same number,
I research until I find out why and balance it out.
There are a number of issues that could cause the numbers to be out
of balance, but each check sum error reveals what quadrant the error
is in, its size, and what type of error it probably is.
The spreadsheet you can access below has 241 rows of data that extend
out to column SX. There is still more information in the 8 rows above
the daily national and international figures.
At the current time I make over 225 manual entries per each report
during the day. In addition I do around 10 cuts and pastes, and several
sorts. If a new nation or entity is added, I have to insert them as
I enter the data for the nations. If a nation or entity is discontinued,
I create a place holder to keep it's position in the list, so I won't lose
the data that was entered for that entity while is was still active.
While this sounds like a lot of work and would seem like it would be time
consuming, I can process a report in about 15-20 minutes.
When JHU had some data issues about three weeks ago, I spent about six
hours on serveal days, and a couple of hours on several others to keep
my data and continuity preserved. I have had to come up with alternative
methods to obtain data several times. I have debeloped a rough concept
of what I will do if one of my data sources goes South.
I would like to maintain this data through until the end. I think it will
be a reasoned case study in the progression of the disease.
Having the data on my computer, in the format I have designed, allows me
to manipulate the information after the event if I want to. It's a
hobby for me, and I enjoy it.
There's only so much I can document, so the best I could do is cover
the documented cases for those 207 nations or entities. You can
review the case growth for any of these nations or entities, since 01/27.
I have broken out the data in Global, Outside Mainland China, and
U. S. A. focused breakdowns.
It has been mentioned that the important number to document is the
number of deaths. I don't think that is a bad idea, it's just that
I don't have time to do more, and it isn't as important to me to get
accurate deaths for each individual nation, as it is to get the group
deaths off the reports. I currently document those levels for the
U. S., Outside China, and if you want to figure out the China portion
you can subtract the Outside China figures from the global ones.
I haven't broken down China's figures, because I don't consider China's
figures to be credible. I have captured them for a frame of refernce,
but there are problems. Communist nations lie. It's what they do.
The data coming out of China has to be seen through that filter.
That being said, I want folks to consider if we will truly have the
precise answers to every question. Will we truly know of every case
in Western nations? Will we truly know the exact number of deaths?
Will we be sure each death attributed to COVID-19 was truly a death
from COVID-19? The answer to each of these questions is no.
Some folks will die at home from COVID-19. They won't get counted.
Some folks will contract the disease, remain at home, and recover.
They won't be counted. Others will be on death's doorstep before
contracting this disease, and then be counted as a COVID-19 death
even though they were months from death anyway.
So in this manner, I think we will wind up with data that isn't quite
as accurate as we might think. I don't think our government is
trying to mislead us, but these things can only be so precise.
China is deserving of a lot of criticism on a number of levels, but
only some of the criticism is warranted. Other parts are a litte off
base. We ourselves won't have exact numbers for what takes place
here. At least we have made an effort, and will study to find more
accuracy even after the event. That will not be going on in Communist
China, at least not for their public or for international exchange.
As for what is taking place along these lines, think back to H1N1, SARS
or any other disease. The numbers for those diseases surffered from
this same dynamic. One day a figure will be placed on the number of
deaths here in the U. S. for COVID-19. It will be an approximation.
That's okay.
Spoiler alert!
The humans win in the end.
My spreadsheet is linked for those who have Excel.
You're welcome to it.
COVID-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data
Sorry, the XLS version is not available for dibursement at this time.a
Meanwhile, American companies screw us and sell us out until the President has to order them to act like Americans.
https://youtu.be/YsmKvC7RpEQ
Percent of Resolved Cases Growing...
I'd like to make a bigger deal of it, because it's an important
part of things turning around, the fact that the percent of declared
cases that have been resolved, is growing. First that happens,
and in time the numbers of active cases start dwindling. Unfortunately,
I am not certain this percentage will continue to grow at this
time. I hope so.
There are always going to be idiot-sticks out there.
We also have a lot of corporations on down to small
businesses that are pitching in to be productive and
a part of the answer to some of the problems we’re facing.
That’s pretty cool.
What do you make of this?
According to plan?
In Texss, our telework extends to May 1. However, if I do any field work, I get hazardous duty pay. I intend to work in the field a lot the next month.
Michigan Governor Getchen Whitmer (D) held a Town Hall where three major local news anchors asked questions posed by residents but when it came to the question of what the numbers were on patients who have recovered and continue to recover, she flat out refused to give any kind of straight answer. Now, what could the reason or excuse for doing that be?
“when it came to the question of what the numbers were on patients who have recovered and continue to recover, she flat out refused to give any kind of straight answer. Now, what could the reason or excuse for doing that be?”
I’m going out on a limb here, but could it be that too many are recovering and it doesn’t fit the narrative? More deaths = more fodder to take out Orange Man.
I think Dr. Birx indicated they are only getting back 50% of the required testing data.
Also in my great state of New Jersey, I am unable to find the number of recovered cases. I have only seen scattered stories of NJ individual recovered cases from unofficial sources of local news and cable network. I have been checking CDC and Coronavirus dashboard.
I am heading off to work. Will check back tonight. I have been watching your daily posts.
This idiot stick is a fortune 500 company that was putting foreign buyers ahead of American states trying to get masks for their hospital staff.
Those three local news anchors were visibly taken aback by her ‘crafted’ responses to many of their straight-forward questions.
However, at least one of those local news channels is not reporting on how bad it made her look. Instead they claim that that “Gov. Whitmer Answers Questions During Town Hall With Detroit TV Staions”.
If you have it ( I know the US publishes it) the number of tests for CoVid is also interesting
We have about twenty percent testing positive Not all countries are testing as much as the US is
Thank you.
On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.
These are the people who may likely die in the next few days. If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.
Here are the numbers:
Apr 1 Wed 5005
Apr 2 Thu 5421
I will update the numbers each day on your posting so you do not have to.
The fatality rate since 3/22
FatalityRate
1.34
1.27
1.45
1.52
1.52
1.64
1.76
1.75
1.84
2.06
2.38
2.47
ConfirmedRateIncrease since 3/22 from previous day
31.87
18.91
25.32
24.3
21.86
18.4
14.71
15.07
15.43
13.91
14.01
“Recovered” is not always known, at least not immediately.
4/2 Fatality rates in countries that hesitated to do social isolation:
Netherlands : 9.11% up from 4.27% on 3/22
Sweden: 5.53% up from 1.09% on 3/22
UK: 8.66% up from 4.9%
Italy: 12.07% up from 9.26% (hug a Chinese person to show you are not racist)
It’s been reported that NYC is estimating their number of COVID-19 CASES.
https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1245906166036615169
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