Posted on 04/02/2020 1:26:40 PM PDT by Hojczyk
The IMHE model is using New York and New Jersey data and applying it to the rest of the US.
It predicted that over 121,000 Americans would be hospitalized yesterday (Wednesday) over the Coronavirus, Sean Davis of The Federalist said.
The actual number? 31,142.
For example, the IMHE model predicted 1,716 people in Texas would be hospitalized yesterday from the Coronavirus, but the actual number of Texans hospitalized is 196.
In Georgia, the IMHE model predicted that as of yesterday, 2,777 people would have been hospitalized due to the Coronavirus.
The actual number of people hospitalized in Georgia? 952.
In Tennessee, the IMHE model predicted that 2,214 people in Tennessee would have been hospitalized by yesterday due to the Coronavirus.
The actual number? 200.
https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1245742813016395777
https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1245742813016395777
Models might be right and might be wrong...
Its time to open up the country on the basis of risk..
The fear factor that the press has imprinted on everyone will keep the economy down for a few months..
Always good to er on the side of caution
“The IMHE model is using New York and New Jersey data and applying it to the rest of the USA.”
Given that this has been explained to the whole USA during the Trump daily briefings why is GP just now getting the picture?
Lockdown is causing the curve to flatten.
Look up “mass hysteria” and they should have these vastly inflated numbers predicted by government “experts.”
The problem is that it may not apply to the whole country...
Why not do a model for each state as it exists now...
South Dakota is nothing like NYC... New Jersey
It’s a variant of the model used to predict sea level rise.
“Models might be right and might be wrong...”
These models are not designed to. be best estimate. The are to show where to allocate resources.
Fixed.
Yawn. My wife is getting mad at me when I say this is a total sham. The media running their stats on the ticker tape like it’s a ball game.
The numbers that are batted around by those referencing the models are impossible to believe.
A computer model is only as good as the data that is entered. Faulty data equals a faulty outcome.
Computers are really stupid because they are only as good as the information that is entered into them.
Sweden will tell us if this lock down really makes any difference in the end..
They have just warned people who are at risk to be careful..
your wife has a brain
This will not end until (1) there is a vaccine; (2) they find an effective cure before your condition gets too bad (assuming you then have immunity).
If (2), I suspect at some point the government will have people intentionally being infected and then receive the treatment.
A lot of confounding factors here. I can’t read the article, so many ads and so slow to see the whole thing. But 1) timeline. Quite possibly, those numbers will prove correct but the date was wrong; 2) People are told NOT to go to the hospital. Many are just sweating it out at home even if pretty sick. 3) quarantining as massively as we’ve done might have played a part.
I wouldn’t put full stock in modeling anyway, but all stats are a little off about corona. Especially ratios re death rates. No one knows how many people have covid. One of the two people I know who has it was not tested. But his daughter had it and he lives with her. So he has it. They are at home muddling through.
Because the hospitals are sending people home to die.
“Always good to err on the side of caution abject, irrational fear.”
Fixed.
Thank you, I was thinking the same thing. Let’s close down the whole country and ruin people’s lives over abject, irrational fear.
Maybe this is the plan to let the left run wild with FEAR forecast and let the actuals show the true situation that is occurring...I hope we run way under and people don’t pick up this horrible...
This can’t be a fluke of Nature as these researchers in CA are now saying 1 in a billion chance that it just came out in an election year after all the pre talk / in China / near a military research lab / with accidental the matching of a Chinese horseshoe bat virus and a 4 legged pangolin virus. Hey the Nature Article is getting big play with college age students and others...but a 1/billion change - the odds? Who would figure TRUMP to be so unlucky!
Here in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) 70 hospitalized with 2 deaths from coronavirus.
County population 1.2 million.
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