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Why is COVID-19 worse than past viruses?
Penn State University ^
| 04.02.2020
| Larry55
Posted on 04/02/2020 1:06:02 PM PDT by Larry55
Why is COVID-19 worse than past viruses?
The 1968-69 Hong Kong flu caused 1 million deaths worldwide 6 months after the first case.
COVID-19 has caused 50,000 deaths 4 ½ months after the first case.
The link below contains a chart for the number of deaths from Pneumonia and Influenza in annual flu seasons (page S5).
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.323.4407&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Notice something familiar? Each year there is a sharp, exponential increase in flu deaths, just like we see with COVID-19.
How does the COVID-19 case/ death rate compare with past viruses 4 ½ months after the first case?
I cant find that data.
What is different about COVID-19 that requires us to respond by mass hysteria and shutting down our world?
I have no idea.
Any suggestions?
(Excerpt) Read more at citeseerx.ist.psu.edu ...
TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: communistcoup; constitutionsuspend; coronavirus; economy
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To: Larry55
Democrat and media instigated fear has caused this to be far worse than it would have been.
21
posted on
04/02/2020 1:20:45 PM PDT
by
MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
(Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
To: sheehan
“...corrupt media induced panic and TDS.”
Precisely
22
posted on
04/02/2020 1:21:01 PM PDT
by
rockinqsranch
(Dems, Libs, Socialists Call 'em what you will, they all have fairies livin' in their trees)
To: gattaca
She sure did. She was spot on.
23
posted on
04/02/2020 1:21:12 PM PDT
by
MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
(Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
To: Newtoidaho
24
posted on
04/02/2020 1:22:01 PM PDT
by
rockinqsranch
(Dems, Libs, Socialists Call 'em what you will, they all have fairies livin' in their trees)
To: Larry55
It is being used to create legal precedent for suspending the Constitution. It is being done incrementally by a popular President in good faith, and generally accepted as necessary by the people. But next time, it will be full “boot on necks”, Roman Legion martial law, and the Democrats in power at that time will cite these times as precedent.
25
posted on
04/02/2020 1:23:15 PM PDT
by
motor_racer
(If you don't read the news, you are uninformed. If you read the news, you are misinformed.)
To: Larry55
I think the biggest difference is that Trump wasn’t President then and is now.
26
posted on
04/02/2020 1:23:48 PM PDT
by
1Old Pro
To: Larry55
- The current world case mortality rate is > 5%. The US CMR is now >2%. Flu is 0.1%. Some will argue that there might be a lot of cases we don't know about, that would bring that number down some. But it's clearly more deadly that the flu. It's just not as widespread as the flu, yet.
- It's more infectious than the flu. the flu has a R0 factor of 1.25. Every person that gets it spreads it 2 1.25 more people. CV is believed to have an R0 of 2-3%. The R0 factor is not intrinsic to the virus. We can lower it by social distancing.
- No immunity. A lot of us have some immunity to the flu. We've had it before. And many of us got flu vaccines. That immunity slows the spread of the flu through the community. Nobody is believed to have immunity to CV. That means the virus will spread through the population infecting far more people than the flu does.
- No summer break. We're still hoping the virus slows down in summer, but the viral spread in countries that are already having 80 and 90 degree whether cast's a whole lot of doubt on this.
- Liklihood it will overwhelm our hospital systems. All of the factors above indicate it will overwhelm our hospital systems, exceeding the supply of ICU beds and ventilators, unless we take action to mitigate it's spread.
- Slow recovery time. Severe cases are ending up on ventilators 20 to 30 days. We're hopeful that treatments can be found that will reduce that. But until we find that treatment, it means patients will be in the hospital longer, taking up beds far longer than a flu patient. <\Ol>
We've already seen it overwhelm hospital systems in China, Italy, and Spain. When that happens horrible choices have to be made. Italy and Spain have both chosen to deny ventilators to people over 60, so that they can give them to younger people more likely to survive.
27
posted on
04/02/2020 1:25:38 PM PDT
by
DannyTN
To: sheehan
Good thing Trump is now friends with Rocket man, they’ve had no illness or deaths, perhaps they’ll share their secret.
28
posted on
04/02/2020 1:26:12 PM PDT
by
1Old Pro
To: sheehan
29
posted on
04/02/2020 1:27:33 PM PDT
by
Secret Agent Man
(Gone Galt; Not Averse to Going Bronson.)
To: Freee-dame
The US leads the world in fake news media.
To: conservative98
Fake statistics.
I like that. Needs to be the new buzzword. Or phrase.
31
posted on
04/02/2020 1:28:11 PM PDT
by
CottonBall
(A Republican's power comes from your prosperity. A Democrat's power comes from your poverty.)
To: Larry55
Novel. That word is freighted with meaning.
32
posted on
04/02/2020 1:28:58 PM PDT
by
wastoute
(Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
To: Larry55; All
Thanks for posting. Good questions and good discussion. Lots of variables...from all the way down to contaminated spices used in the bat soup to dervishness in L4 labs with uneven programming sprinkled in compared to years past (super spreaders...flatten the curve). /some s
At least Greta’s clock is still ticking and it will relieve us from all of our anxieties.
33
posted on
04/02/2020 1:29:25 PM PDT
by
PGalt
(Past Peak Civilization?)
To: sheehan
Create an about page. We know you are a piece of work but just what kind gift be interesting.
34
posted on
04/02/2020 1:29:46 PM PDT
by
wastoute
(Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
To: Larry55
That’s a .pdf link up top, in case anyone’s wondering why they’re not seeing anything when clicking.
35
posted on
04/02/2020 1:31:35 PM PDT
by
tomkat
To: Larry55; All
You can be contagious with stealth COVID-19 and not even know you have it. Thats why people like Abbott Labs quickly developed 5-20 min. test.
Then the first wave of people who have spread the virus without knowing it get sick after incubation period and overwhelm hospital space. And when the people they passed the virus to, and likewise passed the virus to others, finally get sick, the latecomers cannot find hospital beds.
To: Larry55; GOPsterinMA; Diana in Wisconsin
(It’s not, but the panic sure as hell is. I am so old I remember the Great SARS epidemic of 2003)
37
posted on
04/02/2020 1:31:50 PM PDT
by
KC_Lion
(Me and my homies woulda been stackin' bodies by now- G. Washington.)
To: Larry55
Its not whether this virus is worse. Its arguably quite infectious and it appears no human on the planet has immunity to it. I believe the powers that be may think that instead of killing millions by just razing through the world, they will do this great quarantine and slow down the number of cases at once so as to help more people survive (due to access to Med care) than in the previous pandemics.
It will be a while to see if this works, but its promising for now.
38
posted on
04/02/2020 1:32:38 PM PDT
by
Yaelle
To: motor_racer
So many people with such strong opinions yet havent bothered to create an about page even though thy have been freepers for years.
39
posted on
04/02/2020 1:32:43 PM PDT
by
wastoute
(Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
To: 1Old Pro
Heres another one with no about page. What are you hiding?
40
posted on
04/02/2020 1:33:29 PM PDT
by
wastoute
(Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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