Posted on 03/30/2020 6:23:23 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The coronavirus pandemic is exacting a heavy toll on Italy, with hospitals overwhelmed and a nationwide lockdown imposed. But experts are also concerned about a seemingly high death rate, with the number of fatalities outstripping the total reported in China.
Of the 63,927 people confirmed coronavirus patients in Italy, 6,077 so far have died. By contrast China has many more cases, 81,496, but 3,274 fatalities.
In very crude terms, this means that around nine per cent of confirmed coronavirus patients have died in Italy, compared to four per cent in China. By this measure Germany, which has so far identified 28,865 cases and 118 deaths, has a fatality rate of just 0.4 per cent.
So why the disparity?
According to Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health, the country’s mortality rate is far higher due to demographics - the nation has the second oldest population worldwide - and the manner in which hospitals record deaths.
“The age of our patients in hospitals is substantially older - the median is 67, while in China it was 46,” Prof Ricciardi says. “So essentially the age distribution of our patients is squeezed to an older age and this is substantial in increasing the lethality.”
A study in JAMA this week found that almost 40 per cent of infections and 87 per cent of deaths in the country have been in patients over 70 years old.
And according to modelling by Imperial College, London the majority of this age group are likely to need critical hospital care - including 80 per cent of 80-somethings - putting immense pressure on the health system.
But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.
This does not mean that Covid-19 did not contribute to a patient's death, rather it demonstrates that Italy's fatality toll has surged as a large proportion of patients have underlying health conditions. Experts have also warned against making direct comparisons between countries due to discrepancies in testing.
And why are China’s numbers so low?
RE: And why are China’s numbers so low?
Ignore China, you can’t trust their numbers.
Heck you can’t even rely on their testing kits ( just ask Spain and the Czech Republic ).
That’s the point of my question.
If China reported accurate numbers Italy’s would be higher than average but not alarming.
In contrast, the US health care system, relentlessly attacked by liberals, is in far, far better supply of critical care beds than the socialized health care countries.
“If China reported accurate numbers”
China’s test kits are only accurate for 30% of infected patients. For all the others the result is a false negative.
all the numbers are suspect. there is no reliable data.
however, the COVID-19 mob will do anything to ratchet up the poor figures. (1,415 UK deaths is the latest figure I’ve seen). so prepare for a change in how the figure is tallied:
31 Mar: Guardian: Is the spread of coronavirus in the UK really slowing down?
UK data shows the number of new cases has fallen, but experts say only time will tell if this is a trend
by Nicola Davis
The epidemiologist Prof Neil Ferguson (Imperial College London) has said changes in the rate of hospital admissions suggests the spread of Covid-19 in the UK might be slowing down...
***From Tuesday, the Office of National Statistics will be publishing weekly data that includes deaths in the community...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/is-the-spread-of-coronavirus-in-the-uk-really-slowing-down
30 Mar: Guardian: Covid-19: deaths outside hospitals to be included in UK tally for first time
ONS to publish additional data but chief medical officer doesn’t expect a large increase in reported deaths
by Robert Booth, Matthew Weaver and Pamela Duncan
The reported death toll from coronavirus in the UK is set to increase beyond the NHS’s daily tally on Tuesday when fatalities outside of hospitals are counted for the first time...
They will tally all of the deaths from late December until 20 March which they believe occurred outside hospitals.
“It will be based on mentions of Covid-19 on death certificates,” said a spokeswoman for the ONS. “It will include suspected cases of Covid-19 where someone has not been tested positive for Covid-19.”...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/covid-19-deaths-outside-hospitals-to-be-included-in-uk-tally-for-first-time
on the other hand, try to find any reporting on the following flu season in UK press, much less anecdotes about individual deaths. there’s basically none, apart from this one about “fuel poverty”:
30 Nov 2018: UK Independent: Ineffective flu vaccine added to 50,000 extra deaths last winter, ONS says
Human suffering and lost lives over winter ‘predictable, preventable and shameful’, fuel poverty campaigners say
by Alex Matthews-King
The flu vaccine’s failure to protect against some of the key strains of the infection contributed to more than 50,000 “extra” deaths in England and Wales last winter, according to data from the Office of National Statistics.
It was the worst winter on record for more than 40 years, with the 1975-76 season being the last time deaths climbed so high above the expected levels.
The NHS was rocked by a record winter crisis in early 2018, with a massive rise in flu cases and sub-zero temperatures triggered by the Beast from the East storm, which added further to death rates...
“This follows some other recent winters when seasonal deaths have been high,” said Dr Veena Raleigh, senior fellow at the King’s Fund. “With an ageing population, the worry is that this could be the start of a trend of periodically high winter deaths.”...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-vaccine-deaths-nhs-ineffective-crisis-bad-weather-illness-2017-a8660496.html
Death determinations are difficult when there are multiple factors Also subject to manipulation. This has been done recently with opioid deaths. Prescription opioids have only been found to be the major factor in a very small number of deaths. It’s usually poly substances, illicit fentanyl, co-morbidities.
Look for a lot of manipulation for political gain as to the numbers of deaths from CoV just like with opioids.
Meanwhile, if you go out for errands and work, please wear a mask and make one if you must (use vacuum bag filters) and wash your hands. Masks need to be socially acceptable now.
clarifying - when I wrote:
“the COVID-19 mob will do anything to ratchet up the POOR figures”
I meant LOW or DECLINING figures which do not please the COVID alarmists.
You need to checkout these numbers on World-o-meter. Its here...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Now scroll down to the spreadsheet labeled...
“Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country, Territory, or Conveyance”
Then look at the last three columns on the far right. These are the important stats. They are cases per mil pop. deaths per mill pop. and first case date.
The deaths per million and cases per million are important be cause it takes testing out of the equation. Notice that The Vatican and Iceland have 4000 and 7000 per million. Thats the most. Italy and Spain are just under 2000 per million. Switzerland has about the same. But Italy and Spain have about 4 times the deaths. It’s this that can be explained by demographics. The deaths per cases is often a function of testing. Italy probably tests more at hospitals and morgues. While Germans for example, are testing random people.
By the way I always click on yesterday at the top of the spreadsheet in blue. The numbers for “now” are missing some of the current days data. Yesterday is generally complete for every country.
The date is listed to show how long a country has had the disease. The US and Australia have had it a long time. But they both did a good job initially. But then the Chinese students came in. And Chinese ships came in. And cruise ships started to unload. Ports and colleges killed the US from 100 different points of entry right before Trump stopped flights from China.
If you die from pneumonia brought on by the flu, you are counted as a flu death. It's the same with coronavirus.
They are repressive commies after all .
Its clear to me that death-recording data vary widely among places.
An 85 year-old stage 4-cancer patient in hospital, who happens also to get Coronavirus and dies, is now likely to be recorded as having died of Covid-19
I had a upper GI in Italy. I was military and they farmed me out to the Italian hospital. First old building, glass iv’s, and my wife who was able to stay the whole time said the medical people were smoking during the procedure. Crazy!!!!! Thank goodness I survived. Lol.
or it could be Italy never stopped the Chinese workers from coming and going
[And why are China’s numbers so low?]
I suspect China’s low number (even at 120K dead) relative to Italy’s is partly to do with the custom of hugs and kisses that stretches all the way from Iran to France. In addition, the Chinese have eaten bats for medicinal purposes for thousands of years.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/reference/traditional-chinese-medicine/
Something like the current coronavirus is probably endemic to the Chinese population, meaning a weaker version has been circulating there for thousands of years. The new bug is obviously worse than previous versions, but a good chunk of the Chinese population is likely already resistant. Italians, not having eaten bats except perhaps in times of famine, are unlikely to have *any* resistance to bat-born pathogens.
The numbers I want to see...
How many people a day died in Italy in March over the last 4-5 years?
How many in 2020?
How do those numbers relate?
They would never admit that their communist, collectivist, brutal, 2-class aristocracy would fail.
My guess? Add a few zeros to case incidence and case fatality numbers.
The truth will eventually make its way out of china, and thinking people will gasp.
The world will never respect or trust them again.
.
It isn't the same to say, the influenza patient developed pneumonia and died of flu as it is to say, the patient was elderly and had suffered from COPD for years prior to contracting Coronavirus. But nice try. BTW, the link I posted was to the earlier topic.
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