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Birx: US could see up to 200,000 coronavirus deaths if 'we do things almost perfectly'
The Hill ^ | 3/30/20 | Justin Wise

Posted on 03/30/2020 1:40:44 PM PDT by Nero Germanicus

White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx on Monday warned that up to 200,000 people in the U.S. could die from the coronavirus outbreak if "we do things almost perfectly."

In an appearance on NBC's "Today," Birx stressed that the Trump administration remains "very worried" about every city in the United States and the possibility that the virus could get "out of control." She also noted that some metropolitan areas "were late in getting people to follow" social distancing requirements and that it had an effect on the virus's spread.

"If we do things together well, almost perfectly, we could get in the range of 100,000 to 200,000 fatalities," Birx said after being asked about U.S. projections related to the outbreak. "We don’t even want to see that." She added that the administration's models show a worst-case scenario of between 1.6 million and 2.2 million deaths if the U.S. were to enforce zero restrictions on travel and gathering. Asked about whether 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the U.S. was a best-case scenario, Birx emphasized that a best-case scenario would be "100 percent of Americans doing precisely what is required."

"But we’re not sure based on the data ... that all of America is responding in a uniform way to protect one another," she added. "We have to factor that in."

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
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To: MGunny

Birx is not so bad. Starting with Obama she worked in the fight against AIDS and was a Colonel in the Army. Surprisingly she attended one of our church colleges. She knows her stuff, but has to depend on the states’ reporting.

Fauci is Deep State, but has been around awhile


81 posted on 03/30/2020 3:12:19 PM PDT by madison10
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To: CatOwner

Why would a nation of 320,000,000 people not survive if 100,000 of those people die in a pandemic? By my math there would still be 319,900,000 people left to keep the country going. I’m not saying that number of deaths is not a big deal; it is, especially for those directly affected. It is not, however, an existential threat to the country.


82 posted on 03/30/2020 3:14:32 PM PDT by stremba
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To: babble-on
Like knowing how to recognize a marked card, for anyone who knows stats, Trump literally spilled the beans by stating (a) and expected 4/15 peak; and (b) a 150k total 'aspirational' target.

Well, once you have those two numbers, it's incredibly trivial to re-create their baseline model to duplicate the same exact results.

However, the problem is that once one commits to a projection from a set date (3/29), the model can be updated to reflect any delta, plus or minus, to track accuracy.

Anyone wanna guess how much the 150k target diverts right out of the box based on just one actual data point - 3/29 actuals?


83 posted on 03/30/2020 3:16:38 PM PDT by semantic
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To: stremba

It does survive - more than easily. But the 100-200k is a result of a complete 30 day lock-down during April. No lock-down, ie business as usual as the US gets back to work, then the forecast was 2.2m.


84 posted on 03/30/2020 3:18:19 PM PDT by semantic
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To: Leep

2945 at 1:20 PM PDT


85 posted on 03/30/2020 3:19:05 PM PDT by null and void (By the pricking of my lungs, Something wicked this way comes ...)
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To: stremba

To get to 100,000 deaths in the US it would strain the health system, and with that amount of deaths due to COVID-19, the shutdowns would continue for many more months. That would enable Congress to pass even more giveaway bills and break the bank. All the while, China would be setting up the next bio release.


86 posted on 03/30/2020 3:20:25 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: Leep

2953 at 2:30 PDT

Not much of a leap.


87 posted on 03/30/2020 3:21:47 PM PDT by null and void (By the pricking of my lungs, Something wicked this way comes ...)
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To: null and void

You are assuming that there will be true exponential growth in the death rate. We already are seeing logistic growth in infections, though, so it’s hard to believe that the exponential growth in death rates will continue. It’s actually impossible to have sustained exponential growth indefinitely. Continuing to double the deaths every three days implies that everyone in the US would be dead 45 days after the death total hits 10,000. What would the death toll be on day 46 in that scenario?

In reality, the rate of growth of deaths will slow. It just lags the slowing of the rate of growth of infections. This makes sense; those who die don’t do so immediately upon contracting the virus. The peak in growth of infections was about 9 days ago. It looks like the peak in growth of deaths has been within the last couple days, implying about a week lag time.


88 posted on 03/30/2020 3:25:59 PM PDT by stremba
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To: stremba

True, but I’m not seeing the rate flatten out much in a week.

Although I’d be happier if it did.

I won’t prognosticate out much further than Friday (which is where I guessed we’d break 10,000).


89 posted on 03/30/2020 3:33:30 PM PDT by null and void (By the pricking of my lungs, Something wicked this way comes ...)
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To: null and void

You win the death count?


90 posted on 03/30/2020 3:35:28 PM PDT by Leep (Everyday is Trump Day!)
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To: Nero Germanicus

The total deaths semilog plots are all bending over, suggesting that the rate of deaths is slowing, especially in western Europe, which has been the epicenter. There is no way those curves Are going to going to go anywhere close to any of the soothsayers’ predictions, unless the virus finds a new strategy.


91 posted on 03/30/2020 3:38:49 PM PDT by Chaguito
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To: LiveFreeOrDie2001

Yep, big time historic hit job on the US to try to stop Trump from his mission to drain the swamp. Pelosi, DiFiChi, Schmucky, Hilda,Bam,plus others domestically, in cahoots with the ChiComs. Hang em all, bankrupt China, refuse to honor our debt to them, wipe it off the books and charge them 10 trillion dollars in restitution......just a few ideas. The domestic enemies need to swing from nooses in public.


92 posted on 03/30/2020 3:40:39 PM PDT by TheConservativeParty (MAGA)
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To: Nero Germanicus

Just more guessing and hoping for the destruction of this nation.


93 posted on 03/30/2020 3:46:07 PM PDT by CodeToad (Arm Up! They Have!)
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To: Nero Germanicus

Well, that’s progress I suppose.


94 posted on 03/30/2020 4:05:03 PM PDT by gogeo (The left prides themselves on being tolerant, but they can't even be civil.)
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To: punknpuss

The key words are “up to.” Up to 200,000 could be 3 or it could be 100,000 or it could be 200,000.


95 posted on 03/30/2020 4:10:28 PM PDT by Freee-dame
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To: null and void
Check back Friday, the trend shows we'll be close to your magic 10,000 US deaths by then. You're welcome...

Ping

96 posted on 03/30/2020 4:12:41 PM PDT by gogeo (The left prides themselves on being tolerant, but they can't even be civil.)
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To: null and void

We have a hell of a lot more people than Italy, France, or Spain. I think it’s perfectly logical that our statistics will be higher or faster or any number of negative ways you want to compare us. As far as China goes, their numbers are unreliable and not applicable for comparison. The whole exercise is therefor meaningless.


97 posted on 03/30/2020 4:12:49 PM PDT by sanjuanbob (Yes, I CAN take a joke /s)
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To: babble-on
Oh wait, I don’t know jack about it. And neither do the rest of you .

We know that you're willing to put your trust in the government, which means you're the gravest kind of dumb.

98 posted on 03/30/2020 4:18:17 PM PDT by Fightin Whitey
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To: semantic

It does survive - more than easily. But the 100-200k is a result of a complete 30 day lock-down during April. No lock-down, ie business as usual as the US gets back to work, then the forecast was 2.2m.

Logical and digestible


99 posted on 03/30/2020 4:20:31 PM PDT by sanjuanbob (Yes, I CAN take a joke /s)
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To: Nero Germanicus

Too bad Las Vegas is closed - I’d take the Under.


100 posted on 03/30/2020 4:24:44 PM PDT by T-Bird45 (It feels like the seventies, and it shouldn't.)
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