Posted on 03/30/2020 1:40:44 PM PDT by Nero Germanicus
Birx is not so bad. Starting with Obama she worked in the fight against AIDS and was a Colonel in the Army. Surprisingly she attended one of our church colleges. She knows her stuff, but has to depend on the states’ reporting.
Fauci is Deep State, but has been around awhile
Why would a nation of 320,000,000 people not survive if 100,000 of those people die in a pandemic? By my math there would still be 319,900,000 people left to keep the country going. I’m not saying that number of deaths is not a big deal; it is, especially for those directly affected. It is not, however, an existential threat to the country.
Well, once you have those two numbers, it's incredibly trivial to re-create their baseline model to duplicate the same exact results.
However, the problem is that once one commits to a projection from a set date (3/29), the model can be updated to reflect any delta, plus or minus, to track accuracy.
Anyone wanna guess how much the 150k target diverts right out of the box based on just one actual data point - 3/29 actuals?
It does survive - more than easily. But the 100-200k is a result of a complete 30 day lock-down during April. No lock-down, ie business as usual as the US gets back to work, then the forecast was 2.2m.
2945 at 1:20 PM PDT
To get to 100,000 deaths in the US it would strain the health system, and with that amount of deaths due to COVID-19, the shutdowns would continue for many more months. That would enable Congress to pass even more giveaway bills and break the bank. All the while, China would be setting up the next bio release.
2953 at 2:30 PDT
Not much of a leap.
You are assuming that there will be true exponential growth in the death rate. We already are seeing logistic growth in infections, though, so it’s hard to believe that the exponential growth in death rates will continue. It’s actually impossible to have sustained exponential growth indefinitely. Continuing to double the deaths every three days implies that everyone in the US would be dead 45 days after the death total hits 10,000. What would the death toll be on day 46 in that scenario?
In reality, the rate of growth of deaths will slow. It just lags the slowing of the rate of growth of infections. This makes sense; those who die don’t do so immediately upon contracting the virus. The peak in growth of infections was about 9 days ago. It looks like the peak in growth of deaths has been within the last couple days, implying about a week lag time.
True, but I’m not seeing the rate flatten out much in a week.
Although I’d be happier if it did.
I won’t prognosticate out much further than Friday (which is where I guessed we’d break 10,000).
You win the death count?
The total deaths semilog plots are all bending over, suggesting that the rate of deaths is slowing, especially in western Europe, which has been the epicenter. There is no way those curves Are going to going to go anywhere close to any of the soothsayers’ predictions, unless the virus finds a new strategy.
Yep, big time historic hit job on the US to try to stop Trump from his mission to drain the swamp. Pelosi, DiFiChi, Schmucky, Hilda,Bam,plus others domestically, in cahoots with the ChiComs. Hang em all, bankrupt China, refuse to honor our debt to them, wipe it off the books and charge them 10 trillion dollars in restitution......just a few ideas. The domestic enemies need to swing from nooses in public.
Just more guessing and hoping for the destruction of this nation.
Well, that’s progress I suppose.
The key words are “up to.” Up to 200,000 could be 3 or it could be 100,000 or it could be 200,000.
Ping
We have a hell of a lot more people than Italy, France, or Spain. I think it’s perfectly logical that our statistics will be higher or faster or any number of negative ways you want to compare us. As far as China goes, their numbers are unreliable and not applicable for comparison. The whole exercise is therefor meaningless.
We know that you're willing to put your trust in the government, which means you're the gravest kind of dumb.
It does survive - more than easily. But the 100-200k is a result of a complete 30 day lock-down during April. No lock-down, ie business as usual as the US gets back to work, then the forecast was 2.2m.
Logical and digestible
Too bad Las Vegas is closed - I’d take the Under.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.