[Alberta's Child]

I work professionally with model-based forecasts in my line of work (nothing to do with health care). Anyone in my industry who came out with a “second model” after the first one was invalidated would have been laughed out of business.

The whole purpose of modeling is to develop multiple scenarios BEFORE you make any predictions. Models are invariably wrong by their nature — simply because the variables are usually unlimited, and no modeler can foresee all of the factors affecting an outcome. A successful modeler knows how to capture variables to get a reasonable baseline estimate, and then run the model multiple times using valid scenarios.

This guy Ferguson sounds like he produced a Michael Mann “hockey stick,” and everyone just took it at face value.

[spacejunkie2001]

I agree with you

[JungleGoat77]

Still unsure whether Ferguson directing Saudi-funded J-IDEA at the Imperial College is a concern. https://www.alj.com/en/news/rapid-response-research-centre-to-predict-and-prevent-global-health-crises/