Posted on 03/28/2020 5:43:14 AM PDT by jazminerose
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the health specialist on the coronavirus task force, has said the virus’s mortality rate is closer to that of a bad case of the flu. In a Thursday report published by the New England Journal of Medicine, Fauci conceded COVID-19’s death rate was twice that of the common flu, making it roughly 0.28 percent.
That rate is exceptionally low, especially when compared to that of the SARS and MERS epidemics, which peaked at 9 percent and 36 percent respectively.
His latest comments marked a major about-face for Fauci, who previously claimed the coronavirus was 10 times as deadly as the flu.
“The seasonal flu that we deal with every year has a mortality of 0.1 percent,” he said. “I think if you count all the cases of minimally symptomatic or asymptomatic infection, that probably brings the mortality rate down to somewhere around 1 percent, which means it is 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu.”
I imagine that travel between NYC and Philly and DC is pretty high typically. I guess those will be the next regions that get hit. Hopefully the stay-at-home orders will have an impact. In China it was about a two week lag between their nearby cities.
Do you suppose that in a place where they tested absolutely everyone and have exact data regarding the distribution of cases would be good enough? Or are you going to stick by your claims regardless of actual data?
We already know that 80% are asymptomatic and mild cases. We already know that asymptomatics can spread the disease. Your articles are speculative. I am stating documented facts. And anything relying on China data is crap, anyway. They lied about this from day 1 and about every aspect.
So go get some real facts rather than old news, lies and push polls.
Incidentally, you are attempting to browbeat me with that 80% number, which is the one I used in my estimates in the first place, so what’s your point? It’s already baked in. It still says there are fewer than 1,000,000 infected. Or were, at the time. Probably more, now. In the greater scheme of things, it isn’t going to matter if the number is 1,000,000 today, yesterday or a week ago if we don’t do what we can to contain it. Telling evidence-free stories about how everybody has already had it, that are contradicted by actual facts is not helpful. It’s called lying.
That stop spreading misinformation about the death rate of this virus.
So, scientists worldwide that using Chinese research about the virus are behaving foolishly?
And, if the 80% estimate is right, then actual death rate is well under one percent. Are you acknowledging that?
“That stop spreading misinformation about the death rate of this virus.”
It’s baked into my calculations. It’s not misinformation, it’s math.
55% asymptomatic, 25% mild, 15% serious, 5% critical.
Of that 100%, about 2% die. This is the outcome from DP and SK. hey are under 2% in SK with only about half of their cases resolved. They are closer to 2% from the DP with about 1/7 of their cases still unresolved. Both are closing in on the 2% as cases resolve. And in each of those situations they had the full medical resources of a whole country to focus on the problem.
If we assume all the serious or critical cases are reported and the mild and asymptomatic ones are not (obviously the reported cases include mild and even asymptomatic ones detected through contact tracing and testing, but for the benefit of you FluBros, we’ll pad the number of serious cases), that gives us (today) 125,000 serious and critical cases, representing 20% of all the cases and implying that the remaining mild and asymptomatic cases number around half a million. Further, we can assume that each of the 625,000 total cases will infect between 2 and 3 others based on the R0. Let’s say 3, again for the benefit of the FluBros (although a huge chunk of the ones infected by the first 625,000 are actually in the 625,000 itself, but why quibble?) So, based on the post incubation period stats, we have 625,000 active infected, and 1.875 million incubating.
That comes to a total of 2.5 million infected using today’s stats. With the 80% number baked in and plenty of fluff for the FluBros. That is still less than 1% of the 330,000,000 population of the US.
Of the now 2.5 million currently infected expect 50,000 deaths. Unless there is a paradigm shift - mass deployment of HCQ+AZT for example. For which we should all be praying.
Do that, instead of spreading misinformation about the death rate of this virus.
Perhaps you didn’t understand my point. The US results are skewed by one hotspot, namely NY, and even more specifically greater NYC. So a direct comparison of the greater US against Italy, Spain, etc, by means of out the #of deaths vs “time since 10 deaths” shows the greater US to be far below those countries.
Of course deaths will increase with time. I’m only pointing out that, outside NY, the US is not following the radical path that the hardest hit countries have followed. An even more notable trend if you take relative populations into account.
Stated another way, NY is a separate statistical population, with a dramatically different trajectory, and should not be grouped with the US as a whole in judging the development of the epidemic outside NY.
“So, scientists worldwide that using Chinese research about the virus are behaving foolishly? “
They are behaving politically. Do you really believe the Chinese official numbers? Is that you, Winnie?
“And, if the 80% estimate is right, then actual death rate is well under one percent. Are you acknowledging that?”
The 80% is baked into the calculations I posted. Still yields about 2% under the best of conditions. You don’t get to count the 80% twice - it has already been counted. You are doing worse than that, since you are effectively claiming 96% mild or asymptomatic by asserting that the 100% of existing cases are only 20% of the real cases.
All your imaginary friends are imaginary.
Can the BS and refute my math and/or assumptions. Please make me wrong. I’d welcome it.
There are at least two strains. It is not known how they interact - at least not publicly. There are three outcomes - one immunizes you against the other, partially immunizes you, or does not immunize you (really, it’s a spectrum of partial immunization). It depends on how your immune system recognizes different strains, and it is most often all or nothing. We don’t know yet about this one.
Different strains can have different lethalities, for sure, but we don’t know the specifics.
CCP-19 is in the “sweet spot” between too mild and too lethal, in terms of body count. If it is too mild, nobody dies. Too lethal, the hosts die too fast.
Viruses that mutate can go either way. Some strains will be more lethal and die out because their hosts die too fast for them to spread, and some become mild enough for us to basically ignore.
This is a RNA virus which means its genetic information is less stable than DNA based critters. So mutations are more common, but meaningful ones are still rare enough. If things mutated left and right, all day long, there wouldn’t be much to “life” but cancer and lethal diseases. We’d never have made it out of the primordial sludge. So an endless series of distinct deadly strains is highly unlikely (if I am wrong about that we’re all already dead, anyway).
Still no point in panicking. The vast majority of us will get through this just fine.
Why is it you attack the messenger rather than the message? Is it some psychological defect you have?
Please, refute my arguments. I welcome it. But stop attacking me because you can't. It only makes you look foolish.
Because the message is going to create a depression and destroy businesses and jobs as well as set the stage for the left to use a pandemic to strip away citizens' civil rights.
At some point soon, those under 60 that are healthy need to be allowed to go back to living their normal lives. We can take measure to protect the elderly and vulnerable without causing permanent damage to the nation.
Freep mail thanks.
At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]
A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.
2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020
The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.
Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.
But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
(Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology)
In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.
At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]
A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.
2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020
The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.
Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.
But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
(Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology)
In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.
It’s baked into my calculations. It’s not misinformation, it’s math.
55% asymptomatic, 25% mild, 15% serious, 5% critical.
Your percentages are based on positive testing results only. The viral antigen testing being performed is only a current snapshot in time of a patient's exposure history.
It cannot prove or disprove past exposure and subsequent development of immunity since once immunity is established the virus is no longer detected.
The only way you can get a true denominator of exposure is to test for circulating IgM/IgG antibodies to the virus.
“Your percentages are based on positive testing results only. The viral antigen testing being performed is only a current snapshot in time of a patient’s exposure history. “
My percentages are based on repeated and thorough testing of a contained population, while an outbreak was in progress. If your theory was correct the numbers would have been dramatically different.
Don’t pin your hopes on imaginary friends.
That being said, I hope you are right and I am wrong.
“Because the message is going to create a depression and destroy businesses and jobs as well as set the stage for the left to use a pandemic to strip away citizens’ civil rights.”
That is a paranoid view. There is going to be some rearrangement in the economy, but I think it was happening, anyway, albeit more slowly. What rights are you concerned are threatened? Each of those is a separate topic, distinct from the threat of the virus.
There is no Constitutional right to spread a disease or to force others to be exposed.
If the message is false, refute it. If not, stop lying to people to put them at risk to gratify your own paranoid delusions.
“At some point soon, those under 60 that are healthy need to be allowed to go back to living their normal lives. We can take measure to protect the elderly and vulnerable without causing permanent damage to the nation.”
That’s what’s happening. It’s made harder by FluBros and proud spreaders. Trump has cleared the board, for the most part, let him reset the pieces. But 50 is closer to reasonable given the nature of this virus. That decision is likely to be above our paygrade.
People make better decisions with all the facts, or as many as are available. Deception and distortion serve only the people spreading them.
Bottom line, though, if you want to go out, who can really stop you? You will likely be held accountable for the harm you cause, but to you, there is no harm, so what is holding you back?
10 of them have died.
That is a mortality rate of 10/712 = 1.4%
That is the lowest possible number, because seven weeks later there are still 105 unresolved active cases, including 15 still classified as serious/critical.
Let me try this once again. Your percentages are taking into account ONLY THOSE WHO TESTED POSITIVE. There were 3,700 passengers on that ship. That means ~3000 tested negative.
The ship disembarked on Jan 20th, docked back in Yokohama on February 3rd and patient testing began on February 4th, presumably starting with the those with most critical symptoms. Testing of all passengers was not completed until March 5th, giving a full 45 days for exposure and immune response to occur.
Until you go back and test the remaining "not detected" passengers for evidence of exposure (i.e. circulating IgM or IgG antibody to the virus) you do not have an accurate denominator.
If just one out of 8 of the remaining ~3000 on the ship show prior exposure, that brings the percentage down to .9%. Obviously a higher percentage of prior exposure brings the death rate down even farther.
I'd label it data not yet in evidence. Seems like you are the one with "imaginary friends", but I would not be so callous as to accuse you of pinning your hopes on them.
Likewise, there's no Constitutional right for you to deny MY right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, which in fact is the basis of our Constitution.
Who is forcing anyone to be exposed? If you're that cowed by one of the millions of organisms that have plagued mankind since the beginning of time - by all means, hunker down in your basement with your toilet paper. But what gives you the right to force those of us who are not afraid to give up our liberty?
The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.
Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.
But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
(Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology)
In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down
But South Korea has another distinction: Health experts are noting that recently the nation has managed to significantly slow the number of new cases. And the country appears to have reined in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed elsewhere in the world.
"We've seen examples in places like Singapore and [South] Korea, where governments haven't had to shut everything down," said Mike Ryan, head of the World Health Organization's Health Emergencies Programme. "They've been able to make tactical decisions regarding schools, tactical decisions regarding movements, and been able to move forward without some of the draconian measures."
Meanwhile, even Cuomo is even admitted the approach taken in New York hasn't work. Does it look like the Italian approach is working?
The only way to minimize the damage from the virus is to let healthy people go about their business and develop herd immunity.
It's painfully obvious that you only give a damn about yourself and not about the well being of the nation as a whole.
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