Posted on 03/28/2020 5:43:14 AM PDT by jazminerose
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the health specialist on the coronavirus task force, has said the virus’s mortality rate is closer to that of a bad case of the flu. In a Thursday report published by the New England Journal of Medicine, Fauci conceded COVID-19’s death rate was twice that of the common flu, making it roughly 0.28 percent.
That rate is exceptionally low, especially when compared to that of the SARS and MERS epidemics, which peaked at 9 percent and 36 percent respectively.
His latest comments marked a major about-face for Fauci, who previously claimed the coronavirus was 10 times as deadly as the flu.
“The seasonal flu that we deal with every year has a mortality of 0.1 percent,” he said. “I think if you count all the cases of minimally symptomatic or asymptomatic infection, that probably brings the mortality rate down to somewhere around 1 percent, which means it is 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu.”
105 still unresolved cases 7 weeks later out of 712.
A game with odds, I would prefer to not have to play.
130 out of 700 with bad outcomes.
Not even taking into account the unknown LONG TERM health of the other 582.
Spain is taking “the flu” patients over 65 off precious ventilators to give to younger “flu” patients. They dope the elderly up so they supposedly die peacefully and dump their bodies in an ice rink.
Yep, just the flu, bro.
Spain must’ve stocked up on Obama’s Granny Pills.
Go home and take your pill, Granny.
Logic tells you that nations do not shut down their economic systems nor is there suspension of global travel except in extraordinary circumstances.
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I’m not suggesting covid-19 isn’t bad. Hopefully it’s not going to have a death toll that some of the models predict.
Read this article from seven months ago, and then decide what’s logical or not.
So now it’s just a “bad” flu.
Today, for the third day - and it isn’t over yet, even - more people died from CCP-19 than from the highest end estimate from the CDC for flu in-season daily deaths. It killed more in the last 3 days than the flu does in an average in-season week. In the next ten days it will kill more than your average in-season flu month. That’s assuming no increase in the daily deaths and that’s not gonna happen. Deaths are still on the rise exponentially - doubling in less than 3 days.
You guys don’t get it. They have to minimize the danger to keep people from panicking. Or you will see an exodus from the hot spots just like the one when people from NYC realized how full of crap de Blasio was.
Look at what they do, not what they say. They shut down the economy. They paid everyone to stay home. They deployed military assets in various places across the country and world. They closed the border and the Democrats haven’t even mentioned it. A couple of dozen states have been declared disaster areas. They have mobilized the entire country’s medical infrastructure to fight one thing. And on and on.
And the numbers don’t lie, when they are honest data from reliable countries. The best *any* country, with all their resources focused on it, has been able to do is about a 2% CFR. Countries that were too slow or made bad decisions about Women’s Marches and Mardi Gras and Carnival and Spring Break and soccer games - all fared much worse. 1 in 10 cases dies in Italy. Spain is headed that way. Maybe NYC.
If the real number of people in Wuhan that died (after many people fled) was 1 in 10, that would explain a lot of the reports we saw about surplus cremations and extra incinerators and cell phones that were cancelled. I doubt we’ll ever really know.
And it is far from over. Especially here in the US, but even in Wuhan they are still terrified. Maybe wishful thinking, but China has unrest like the USSR did at the end. I don’t think the CCP will go quietly, though.
Now I'm not saying this is the Black Plague or even the 1918 influenza but it's obvious to me that this is no mere flu either. We had somebody in NYC dying from this every 17 minutes yesterday and the death rate looks to be ahead of that pace today. We had about 3,000 people die in NYC on 9/11. We could see daily rates approach or exceed that in the days ahead. And I'm only talking NYC area with those numbers.
It’s not just the flu.
You have to look at how contagious it is, how many people have serious complications requiring hospitalization , how long it takes to recover, and what health care resources are available within a certain time frame.
The number of deaths and the mortality rate are not the only factors that need to be considered.
“I just want to see the comparative data from past pandemics that didn’t result in the absolute suspension of certain liberties. Is that so unreasonable.”
There were quarantines during the Spanish Flu. And other measures. People were whiny pricks then, too, but they didn’t have the internet to whine on. Most exhibited common sense.
“Liberty for security results in neither.”
What liberty is it you believe has been curtailed? Your right to infect others? The rest of your liberties you believe are at risk were lost to greed and self-interest long ago.
This is a war. The hardships we are facing are nothing compared to what others have endured during wartime. Since the Civil War we have not had to deal with battlefields on our own soil. Now we do. That’s the situation you are in denial about. When the war is over we can reestablish norms, but I have no doubt perspectives will be different. Your real fight, if it is about liberty, is making sure the left does not advance its agenda *after* things return to normal, or while they are doing so. A premature “return to normalcy” will just create another catastrophe for them to exploit.
Go to legal zoom and make out a will.
“Uber bogus response to my non-bogus arguments all-nighter which you did not read and I don’t blame you as I can be too damn long winded.”
If my response was bogus then my arguments should be easy to refute, like yours are. I see none of that from you.
Don’t get hung up on headlines. That’s what makes your whole spiel a waste of time. If the graph had used the phrase “bogus Chinese official numbers” instead of “China” the FluBros would be spamming the thread with all kinds of BS instead of you spamming the thread with a completely irrelevant semantic argument.
“So what I demand is that rather than posting graphs on what we already know, e.g. the disease is spreading and killing people, can we get some context. What did the H1N1 graph look like? It probably wasn’t as severe but that much less? And if not, then why are we constraining liberty and destroying our economy now if we didn’t then (thankfully)?”
Normalcy bias. This isn’t H1N1 and we saw that a long time ago. H1N1 was allowed to run amok but it didn’t do the job the Obeasties hoped (full disclosure: speculative conspiracy theory there). This is far more contagious and far more lethal than even H1N1 was. 4 times as lethal. And nobody has immunity. But you could easily find that information for yourself and make your own graph. I wonder what China’s H1N1 numbers were like. I’m sure we surpassed those, too. Because everybody knows that China lies all the time. But here’s a tidbit for you: the CCP-19 pandemic currently registers .16 on the US H1N1 body count scale. For the entire H1N1 outbreak, versus a couple months for CCP-19. And we’re just getting started and have massive mitigation and containment efforts ongoing. It ain’t H1N1, either.
“The graph’s heading is what it is. Did I misread it? And if the graph disproves the heading as you say, then you actually agree with me. It is the equivalent of a headline not matching a story.”
And you are missing the forest for the trees. It’s silly.
What is the typical medical staff on a cruise?
“So far, only people with serious symptoms are being tested. Until we can test large populations, we don’t have accurate figures on the mortality rate. Currently we are saying that people who develop serious symptoms have a mortality rate somewhere between 1 and 5%. We know it’s deadly, but we really don’t have a handle on how deadly.”
We certainly do have a handle on how deadly.
In SK they have caught pretty much all their cases by containment and massive testing and contact tracing. They had no cruise ship demographic constraining the spread. Of the confirmed cases, which include asymptomatic infected and mild cases, approximately 1.5% have died. Half the cases remain unresolved. The rate at which people are dying exceeds the rate at which they find new cases. So the 1.5% number can only go up. (I honestly thought, back when it was 0.7%, that they would end up around 1.2 or 1.3%.)
On the Diamond Princess there was a slightly different demographic. Lots of older folks, but also a significant younger group in the crew. They tested everybody. Because of the distribution of crew and passengers and mitigation and containment efforts, it was not a wide open community spread situation. It was not the petri dish you are looking for. Of the 707 passengers initially confirmed (later another 5 were found, somewhere - a whole different line of inquiry is needed there!) 12 have died. 10 on the ship, 1 in the US and 1 in Canada. That puts the fatality rate at 12/712*10=1.7%. And 1 in 7 of those cases remain unresolved.
In each case the resources of an entire country were focused on containment and mitigation. In each case the medical system was first-world quality. In each case there remain a substantial number of unresolved cases. In the case of SK the fatality rate is likely to increase and in the case of DP it can only go up, not down, because the entire cohort has been identified and counted.
So, best case scenario, the CCP-19 virus, if contained and mitigated as much as possible, with an intact first-world medical system, is 15 times as lethal as the common flu.
Then there is Italy. And Spain. And probably NYC. Plus what ever happened in Wuhan, in Iran and wherever else they are hiding the true numbers. And even in Wuhan it isn’t over, yet.
“I was gonna reply that “that applies to myriad other countries as well.” But in truth, I think “it applies to ALL other countries as well.””
I certainly agree.
"BS. You don’t know that. Less than 1% has been tested, but you don’t know the actual infection rate, which by medical estimates has been in the millions."
I suppose if you didn't spend all your time claiming it is the flu you could do some actual research and come up with a number.
Mine makes certain assumptions, mostly to preempt the obvious and expected FluBro arguments (well, that didn't work). I have mentioned that a number of times, but if I have to repeat it on every post it will take up too much bandwidth.
First, we can assume that almost all the serious or critical cases are going to hospitals and getting tested, so that number is no more than the 120k (it was 80k+ during my original calculation, but we're still in the ballpark). We know that it is actually less than that, but as places limit testing to severe cases, like in NYC and LA and Atlanta and NO and so on, it will rapidly approach that number anyway.
Since we know from various places that the distribution of cases is 20% serious or critical and 80% mild or asymptomatic, we can assume another 480k infected. Given that there are incubation periods and the estimated R0 and such it could be double or triple or quadruple that with many not yet showing symptoms. That puts us at 2.4 million infected. The real population of the US is around 350 million, but even at the official number of 330 million or so, 1% is 3.3 million, well over my estimated infected, even with generous allowances for FluBro math.
But if you have a better number, by all means post and explain it.
By the way, from my contact inside the containment/mitigation effort the rate of positives/tested is about 10%. If you extrapolate that to the entire country, 33 million are infected. We know that that is (was) a ridiculous assumption a few days ago, before Exodus NYC happened. But even if you use that number, that's still only half of the people that had the flu all flu season and we have still surpassed the flu daily mortality rate. And most of those people wouldn't even have symptoms, yet. [Using all CDC high end numbers for FluBro math.]
We are only weeks in and at the bottom of a very steep curve. Better hope we get those meds for treatment deployed yesterday.
“Millions have likely had the virus without knowing it and/or without being tested for it.”
Long since debunked. Go back and do some remedial reading. But I’ll save you some effort if you like. According to real doctors involved in this mess: No. If there were this herd of asymptomatic infected they’d have lit up the whole country and we’d also have millions in the hospital.
According to the good doctor he misspoke or miscalculated when he said it was 10 times worse it may only be a one and a 1/2 or 2 times worse than the normal flu.
I think it’s time to stop blowing it up to worse than it is and the hyperventilating and such on TV is not what I’m seeing from my friends in the health care industry who worked at hospitals. It’s not the plague it’s not 90% deadly most of the people who have it don’t even know it and there over it.
It’s not an argument I was in the panic chicken ahead cut off area than my own thinking back 2 weeks ago but it’s not the threat that people think it is on TV.
The most serious thing is the fact that we don’t build our own hospital equipment we no longer generate and create and distribute our own medications that we develop.
With the advent of Obama care people made a switch and they’re thinking to getting the cheapest drugs that are possible from other countries like China and then having a socialist redistribution scheme or paying medical bills and such here in the States. We gave away our means of production.
The best thing about this pandemic is that it has exposed the Achilles heel of outsourced socialized medicine especially that in other countries whose death rates are much higher than ours and who have universal health care AKA Obama care.
This is squarely to blame on the health care industry that Obama negotiated with his buddies in health care corporations.
The mess has been exposed and we are going to fix it.
Corona viruses Correspond to the most serious viruses that we’ve had H1N1 so on and so forth.
People need to get their addiction to fear and terror removed and stop believing everything they hear. There is a serious problem medically and we do have to deal with it however a lot of people in the medical industry are using this to try and expand the bureaucracy take more money and attack the most advanced medical system on the face of the planet since the beginning of time that is to say the United States medical industry.
“Trump sending the big Navy medical ships to LA and NYC should be a wake-up call. If you tune out the anti-Trump Fake Media and pay attention to what is happening, you will see that President Trump has been putting us on a war footing. “
Absolutely.
“Now I’m not saying this is the Black Plague or even the 1918 influenza but it’s obvious to me that this is no mere flu either. We had somebody in NYC dying from this every 17 minutes yesterday and the death rate looks to be ahead of that pace today. We had about 3,000 people die in NYC on 9/11. We could see daily rates approach or exceed that in the days ahead. And I’m only talking NYC area with those numbers.”
Absolutely, also. Spanish Flu killed between 1-3% of the world population. A quarter of the world caught it. It had a 3-6% mortality rate for the infected. This isn’t the Spanish Flu, but if we let it run amok it well could be. (Even in 1918 they had quarantines and social distancing and people were told to wash their hands.) CCP-19 still kills nearly 2% of its victims according to the best data we have, under the best of circumstances. And that’s with 100 years of medical progress. Consider, also, that 100 years ago we didn’t have the ability to travel anywhere on the globe in a single day. All of this is happening much faster and is harder to contain.
So it’s no joke and the measures being taken are not excessive. They might be inadequate.
“According to the good doctor he misspoke or miscalculated when he said it was 10 times worse it may only be a one and a 1/2 or 2 times worse than the normal flu.”
He’s not the only one who has said it, but he is the guy that Trump needs to keep people from panicking.
Do your own calculations using the actual data we have. I’ve repeated them dozens of times right on this site. I’ve posted the distribution of severity and the mortality calculations on this thread as well as many others.
There is no need to panic, it never helps. I’ve been telling people not to panic from day 1. If people do some basic prepping they’ll be fine. it’s harder, now than 2+ months ago when I first said it. But still possible.
Simplified, CCP-19 has a 2% fatality rate under the best circumstances. Much worse when the HCS collapses. All of this is to keep the HCS from collapsing. We can’t contain it, but trying still slows it down. It’s a rear-guard action while we develop and deploy countermeasures.
A calm and methodical approach to preserving as much of our HCS and as much of our economy as possible for the duration means that we don’t get a Bolshevik coup when things collapse. If the economy or the HCS collapses, it takes the other with it.
You are right that it has exposed weaknesses - ObamaCare and single payer systems can’t handle this (we already knew that, but many didn’t). But we also have a substantial private medical system left and it is struggling, too. We can’t let the agenda folks shift the blame and get their way, anyway.
Nobody but the crazies are claiming anything like 90%. About 2% best case, 10% if your HCS collapses (that number should drop to about half that once the true tallies are determined). Those are real numbers and at least the 2% number is well determined.
CCP-19 is worse than H1N1, but not orders of magnitude worse.
You don’t need to calm me down. I’m all set, my family is safe and we are in good shape. I am only trying to save other people. Not the stupid people, it’s pretty obvious they aren’t going to change their beliefs no matter the facts. But I can save others *from* the stupid people. Which is why I engage in seemingly futile debate with certain parties on this board.
“We are only weeks in and at the bottom of a very steep curve.”
You don’t know that either. You’re still guessing and claiming to foretell the future.
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-us-new-study-survey-millions-americans-infected-1494733
However, a new study of Americans suggests that potentially several million people in the U.S. could be infected, based on a survey of whether they have been diagnosed with the virus, been in contact with an infected person or know someone in their social network who has been infected.
The study by Reuters and research firm Ipsos, which surveyed 4,428 American adults between March 18 and 24 this year, reported 2.3 percent of those surveyed said they were diagnosed with the virus.
The population of the U.S. is estimated to be about 332,630,000. So the 2.3 percent in the latest poll would translate to more than 7.65 million people.
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