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To: Zhang Fei

The one calculation that you can’t inject into this....the normal monthly deaths in Wuhan (just in general, from cancer and murder to food poisoning and old age). With a city of 11-million, you’d figure at least 5,000 folks would have passed away monthly without the aid of the virus.


3 posted on 03/27/2020 11:54:48 PM PDT by pepsionice
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To: pepsionice

[The one calculation that you can’t inject into this....the normal monthly deaths in Wuhan (just in general, from cancer and murder to food poisoning and old age). With a city of 11-million, you’d figure at least 5,000 folks would have passed away monthly without the aid of the virus.]


No telling what the Wuhan deaths are, normally, without access to official Chinese stats but deaths for China as a whole were 7.14 per 1000 population in 2019. Wuhan has 11m people, so monthly deaths would be 7.14 x 11,000 / 12 = 6,545. Assuming the numbers cover a 3 month period, and the low estimate of 42,000 urns over that period, that’s 42,000 - 3 x 6,545 = 22,365 excess deaths over the normal run-of-the-mill death numbers, which is likely explicable by the covid-19 pandemic. And that’s just in Wuhan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#Table_of_births_and_deaths_1950%E2%80%932019

What about the rest of the province? And the rest of China? My guess is a minimum of the low hundreds of thousands. Based on the numbers we’re seeing out of Italy, and merely multiplying by 20 to size up to China’s population, I’d say a minimum of 200,000 deaths.


5 posted on 03/28/2020 12:06:26 AM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: pepsionice

I’m still betting 40,000 is on the low side..minus your 5,000 a month.

Probably 50k after taking everything into account.

They were burning day AND night.


8 posted on 03/28/2020 12:11:26 AM PDT by dp0622 (Radicals, racists dont point fingers at me I'm a small town white boy Just tryin to make ends meet)
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