If COVID-19 Models Are Unreliable, What Does This Mean For Climate Models?

Issues & Insights ^ | 3/27/20 | J. Frank Bullitt

[Renkluaf]

It wasn’t long ago, just in recent days, in fact, that we were being told the coronavirus was going to kill more than 2 million Americans. But some researchers are indicating the forecasts of doom were driven by faulty models.

What then, are we supposed to make of the models that have been fueling the global warming hysteria?

The forecast used to predict 2.2 million U.S. deaths and 510,00 deaths in Great Britain was produced by Imperial College in London. It is “the epidemiological modeling which has informed policymaking in the United Kingdom and other countries in recent weeks.”

OK, but is the information reliable? Epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta is doubtful.

“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” he said in the Financial Times.

Gupta’s team of researchers at Oxford believe both the hospitalization and mortality rates are much lower than the worst estimates, and immunity is more widespread than previously thought.

The Wall Street Journal has published an op-ed from professors of medicine at Stanford who said “projections of the death toll” reaching 2 million to 4 millon “could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.” They believe “epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their estimates to account for” a number of important factors.

We can’t say for sure which model has it right. Will deaths be in the millions? Or will coronavirus be less lethal than the seasonal flu?

But we can say that at least one of the models is wrong.

So what does this tell us about the climate models that officials keep telling us are evidence that man is overheating his only planet? The lesson is that we shouldn’t put our full trust in the global warming alarmists’ claims. But then independent thinkers have known for some time the climate models are far from perfect:

• Six years ago, Reason’s Ronald Bailey noted that “most temperature records show that since 1998 the models and observed average global temperatures have parted ways. The temperatures in the models continue to rise, while the real climate has refused to warm up much during the last 15 years.
• In 2017, Bailey reported that, according to a “fascinating new study” in Nature Geoscience, “climate computer model projections of future man-made warming due to human emissions of carbon dioxide are running too hot.”
• Last year, John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Hunstville, told the British Parliament “an early look at some of the latest generation of climate models reveals they are predicting even faster warming. This is simply not credible.”
• Also last year, author Guy Sorman wrote in City Journal the models used by United Nations scientists cannot “explain why the climate suddenly cooled between 1950 and 1970, giving rise to widespread warnings about the onset of a new ice age.”
• Climatologist Judith Curry has also said the models “seem to be running too hot.”
• Christy’s university colleague Roy Spencer, a former NASA climate scientist, says “global warming projections have a large element of faith programmed into them” because “we have no idea how much warming” is caused by carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas the political left has chosen to vilify.
• A little more than a year ago, climate researcher Patrick J. Michaels noted the authors of a paper published in Nature Climate Change “show that the aggregate models are making huge errors in three of the places on earth that are critical to our understanding of climate.”

Despite the healthy skepticism from scientists who have been studying the climate for decades and have held prominent academic positions, the Democrat-media powered narrative never sleeps. But that’s what we expect from those who are ever searching for a crisis to take advantage of.

[Renkluaf]

Say it ain't so!

[HighSierra5]

Bingo!

[Pearls Before Swine]

That’s a horse of a different color. A green horse.

How dare he!

[rktman]

One is based on facts, the other one, not so much?

[polymuser]

Excellent question!

Share that question far and wide.

[Vermont Lt]

Just to point out...

The numbers were revised downward for mitigation reasons. Furgeson stated that if nothing was done, the original numbers are unchanged.

That is a pretty important distinction. It means that the 2 weeks has made a significant difference.

In fact, he said that it is MORE contagious that originally thought.

So, this just goes to show you that a lot of “experts” never read past the headlines.

It’s a Y2K thing...because there were few obvious problems, most people neglect to remember the vast hours spent making sure it wasn’t an issue.

[ronnie raygun]

Lets see, scientists rely on government funding, follow the agenda get money don’t follow the agenda no job

[JPJones]

Climate models all erroneously add 3 degrees of warming due to “net positive feedbacks”.

There’s no empirical evidence that the feedbacks will add that much (ex.: no tropical tropopause hotspot); and some evidence that net feedbacks will be negative (Cohen, Zwally).

[Da Coyote]

The old computer addage Garbage In, Garbage Out (GIGO) has and always will rule supreme.

[Susquehanna Patriot]

Yes. The fact that there was at least one death recorded for Wuhan virus, means that the models were correct in their ability to predict death, therefore more government funding is needed to improve their predictive capabilities.

Similarly with climate change ... because the models predict that the temperature usually increases with sunrise, the models are correct and many more billions is needed to fine tune the models.

[DugwayDuke]

A wise man once said that simulation was like masterbation. If you do it enough, you begin to think simulation is better than the real thing.

[datricker]

This is not a sailboat

[Brian Griffin]

We are have an AOC dream CO2 production reduction this month.

I wish it wasn’t so hot just now here in Florida.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

Oh, THOSE models are still correct. Ask any brainwashed LibTard you see, you evil Science Denier!

*SNORT*

[Brian Griffin]

It may be more contagious than thought because Chinese Communist officials are very good at unpleasant data destruction.

[va22030]

All these colleges as well as science itself has become political science.

It started with so called psychology the fake science. Since global warming scam took off and with enough corrupt scientists critical mass was achieved. Gender science bolstered it. Unfortunately hard science is casualty.

Now common untrained public cannot separate science and fake science anymore. As science becomes ideological like all social - so called -sciences.

Unless we can reverse this trend, We will soon return to dark age before renaissance.

[hal ogen]

This is typical of leftist losers. Under the guise of “science”, their “models” are based on garbage assumptions which are then presented as fact. The only fact is that leftists are malignancies upon truth, civil societies and upon free individuals. Leftists don’t care about fact, truth and integrity.

[hal ogen]

Most “educators” don’t teach people how to think critically. Mostly, they are pushing their political and belief agendas, not educating.

[cranked]

Better check with NASA, yo /s

[Mr Ramsbotham]

Good point!