Posted on 03/26/2020 10:49:10 PM PDT by Its All Over Except ...
Dr. Deborah Birx on Thursday provided encouraging coronavirus numbers suggesting that some of the predictive models were incorrect.
“There’s no model right now, no reality on the ground, where we can see that 60-70 percent of Americans are going to get infected in the next 10-12 weeks,” she said.
Without specifically naming the Imperial College, Brix referred to models that predicted there could be 500,000 coronavirus deaths in the United Kingdom and 2.2 million deaths in the United States.
The scientist of the model revised the estimate of deaths in the United Kingdom to be roughly 20,000 people or fewer.
Birx said that the actual data coming in from other countries were different than some of the direst projections.
She noted that in major countries, there was never an attack rate of over one in over 1,000 people.
“The predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground on either China, South Korea, or Italy,” she said.
Birx also addressed reports that raised the alarm of New York City hospitals running out of ICU beds, ventilators, and creating “Do Not Resuscitate” (DNR) policies for patients.
She revealed that she spoke with health officials in New York, that there were still ICU beds and 1000-2000 ventilators available, and that there were no DNR policies enacted.
“We don’t have evidence of that right now,” she said.
...
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Dr. Deborah Birx earns applause from vast majority of news organizations
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/25/dr-deborah-birx-earns-applause-from-vast-majority-/
while she didn’t specifically mention it, she talked as if we relied on those models.
A fantastic comment from TroicalJerry at Breitbart:
I’m 74 and I’ve seen more doom and gloom than episodes of Gunsmoke.
Asian Flu. Nuclear holocaust. June bugs. Tanzania laughter. Race wars. Cuban missile crisis. Running out of oil. WW3. SDI. Hole in the ozone layer. Killer bees. Global warming. Global cooling. Y2K. SARS. MRSA. Ebola. Zika. West Nile. Mayan Calendar. NWO. Infrared grills. Satellites falling on my house. Asteroid impacts.
Every one of those crises has one thing in common. They weren’t crises. Neither is this. Living in the Caribbean, I’ve got more to fear from the drinking water than this thing.
What did that panic get all of you? A boatload of toilet paper and a nonexistent paycheck!
(hands clapping) Bravo. Way to screw up in spades. This is what happens when you listen to crackpot liberals and the Chicken Little Brigade.
I think the models are likely good.
Their parameters are largely unknown.
Initial conditions are not a big factor in the outcomes.
Where does Brix get the data to estimate “new” parameters?
?????
My alleged IR Grille seems to work just fine.
Quick and very repeatable.
They were right about the June Bugs.
Beware.
/cryptic giggle
But that would be mere conjecture.
Focus on the CDC, which even according to WaPo failed this nation, and set back the Trump administration by weeks on dealing with Coronavirus.
And the World Health Organization came up with an amped up mortality rate for the US and sent markets spiraling downwards that we still haven’t recovered from.
But I have had such fun poking the Chicken littles with a stick.
And.
I have been warning them since the beginning that their behavior is going to come back to call both their intellect and their integrity to question for years to come.
Which is as it should be.
true dat for all three.
This goes right along with this:
High consequence infectious diseases (HCID) (As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID)
Status of COVID-19
As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.
The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.
The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19
My eyes glaze over.
But did she cry when Hillary lost the election? Right now I think she’s solid and very impressive. But I’ve been burned so many times after first impressions that I’m withholding final judgement.
The parameters are unknown but somehow the models are good?
How did Imperial College's Neil Ferguson prediction model of a massive 500,000 deaths in the UK work out?
Cuomo wonders if coronavirus quarantine may have backfired in some cases
I don’t disagree...I look at my own prepper stuff and I am woefully incomplete. and I know it.
I also heard cuomo supposedly admitted he has respirators\ventilaro in reserve.
I would like to see something positive about being prepared to come out of this for the next time.
Cause there’s always a next time.
I didnt put this on frontpage, btw.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.