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Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model
DailyWire.com ^ | March 26th, 2020 | Amanda Prestigiacomo

Posted on 03/26/2020 10:52:24 AM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: 202003; 20200325; ayecorona; chinavirusmodeling; coronavirus; coronavirusmodel; covid19; epidemiologist; imperialcollege; neilferguson; oops; teamapocalypsesucks; unitedkingdom; wuhanflu
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To: Fury
"Whatever you think of people who disagree with you and have been, well, hostile to you, knock off the Branch Davidian reference."

some text
241 posted on 03/26/2020 6:05:21 PM PDT by BusterDog
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

He should have known better. So should the people who listened to him.

At any rate Birx’ explanation sorts out the question pretty well.


242 posted on 03/26/2020 6:07:00 PM PDT by TigersEye (MAGA - 16 more years! - KAG)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Woo! Hoo! Doctor B brought this up at the task force press conference today.
The cat is out of the bag.


243 posted on 03/26/2020 6:15:29 PM PDT by SisterK (its a spiritual war)
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To: BusterDog

Re: 241 - LOL!

Just a matter of class.


244 posted on 03/26/2020 6:55:22 PM PDT by Fury
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To: aMorePerfectUnion
Fergason testified before Parliament that his numbers changed because he accepted China’s numbers, that 20% would be hospitalized.

He did huh?
What is 20% of 81,000 (the total number of coronavirus infections in China)?
How the heck do you come up with a massive 500,000 dead in the UK then?
And how can ANY prognosticator in ANY field be off by as much as TWENTY FIVE TIMES the figures they gave out just a few short weeks ago?

245 posted on 03/26/2020 6:57:40 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: Chgogal; Jane Long
It is time to re-evaluate the universities. Their research is highly suspect.

That doctor PhD from the Nebraska university whose presentation estimating 500,000 deceased might be a good place to start, at least find out if he originated those numbers or copied from the referenced subject of this post.

246 posted on 03/26/2020 7:27:00 PM PDT by going hot (happiness is a momma deuce)
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To: ping jockey; bitt
***A big giant pacifier designed to be plopped into your mouths so you will remain quietly placated while the worlds wealth is stolen***

There's a whole crib of corn right there to be shucked!

And for those optimists who say that this $600 a week unemployment boondoggle is only six to eight weeks, they don't understand Democrap and carpetbagger politicians nor the entitlement class who will scream after eight weeks how they can't make it without a job and it was the govt that put them out of work. . . . Anyone notice those wiley Marxists holding out the bait of a guaranteed income even if you do not work?

As you say, while the world's wealth is stolen -- BY BILLIONAIRES! Translate: While America's wealth is stolen!

247 posted on 03/26/2020 7:40:45 PM PDT by Bob Ireland (The Democrap Party is the enemy of freedom.They use all the seductions and deceits of the Bolshevics)
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To: LouAvul
we all understand that the flu could kill us......ecoli can kill us...strep and MRSA could kill us....

that is life....

why we got into siege mode is beyond me and the absolute lay down obedience of the American public when schools, stores, businesses,parks,zoos,fishing,holes hiking trails and churches all shut down JUST LIKE THAT no questions asked is frightening....

when things loosen up, we WILL have deaths from flu and covid....count on it...but no worse than the usual infections..

248 posted on 03/26/2020 9:46:35 PM PDT by cherry
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To: WildHighlander57

You are asking the wrong person.


249 posted on 03/27/2020 6:38:21 AM PDT by Wuli
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Guy ought to be jailed for putting out a frightening model like that. It might teach others not to go off on a tangent & do the same. It’s like shouting “fire!” in crowded theater.


250 posted on 03/27/2020 7:07:03 AM PDT by nuconvert ( Warning: Accused of being a radical militarist. Approach with caution.)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

With the economony shutdown the intention was to turn us into a socialist nation overnight with businesses closed and a huge stimulus package and all kinds of mandates. I think this was a huge Dem, Soros, and Chicom operation.


251 posted on 03/27/2020 9:56:08 AM PDT by gawatchman
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To: gawatchman

Agree!


252 posted on 03/27/2020 10:08:22 AM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion
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To: b4its2late

There is still time for the hymnals to melt by 2020 too. Trust the scientists... it’s for your own good.


253 posted on 03/28/2020 1:47:36 AM PDT by momincombatboots (Ephesians 6... who you are really at war with)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion
WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!

Wait...what?

Oh...never mind.

254 posted on 04/02/2020 12:13:11 PM PDT by Eagles6
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