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Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model
DailyWire.com ^ | March 26th, 2020 | Amanda Prestigiacomo

Posted on 03/26/2020 10:52:24 AM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: 202003; 20200325; ayecorona; chinavirusmodeling; coronavirus; coronavirusmodel; covid19; epidemiologist; imperialcollege; neilferguson; oops; teamapocalypsesucks; unitedkingdom; wuhanflu
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So, Soros is tied to Imperial College, AND a Chinese cure, too...

https://civilianintelligencenetwork.ca/2020/02/12/george-soros-bill-gates-partner-with-china-on-coronavirus-drug/


201 posted on 03/26/2020 1:45:00 PM PDT by polymuser (It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and so few by deceit. Noel Coward)
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To: Sgt_Schultze; dfwgator

I saw some great runway models, recently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBRH0VDSuDE

I had a great seat, too. I had a window seat.


202 posted on 03/26/2020 1:45:13 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: SaveFerris

Could. Get. Used. To. That.


203 posted on 03/26/2020 1:47:55 PM PDT by Sgt_Schultze (When your business model depends on slave labor, you're always going to need more slaves)
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To: WildHighlander57

Saw it...other than some hot spots which we would expect, the article reflects what I’m seeing on the ground in central Virginia....with 97 percent of ALL THOSE TESTED in Virginia testing negative for active virus thus far...though those reports lag as test turn arounds in Va are 2-4 days and who knows, 1-3 days for Va Dept of Health to update each report to the public sites.

Oh I expect positive tests to slowly rise and more deaths in terms of numbers but I’m questioning the virulence and transmission capabilities of this virus. When we will peak, I don’t know but Central Va’s hospitals are not being over-run right now. Yes you can get real sick and die with this virus...but we may need to re-think our individual chances for even contracting the disease.


204 posted on 03/26/2020 1:49:02 PM PDT by mdmathis6
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To: WildHighlander57

Saw it...other than some hot spots which we would expect, the article reflects what I’m seeing on the ground in central Virginia....with 97 percent of ALL THOSE TESTED in Virginia testing negative for active virus thus far...though those reports lag as test turn arounds in Va are 2-4 days and who knows, 1-3 days for Va Dept of Health to update each report to the public sites.

Oh I expect positive tests to slowly rise and more deaths in terms of numbers but I’m questioning the virulence and transmission capabilities of this virus. When we will peak, I don’t know but Central Va’s hospitals are not being over-run right now. Yes you can get real sick and die with this virus...but we may need to re-think our individual chances for even contracting the disease.


205 posted on 03/26/2020 1:49:29 PM PDT by mdmathis6
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To: Sgt_Schultze

;)


206 posted on 03/26/2020 1:50:25 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

So, Soros funds Imperial College, where the x25 too high model was made, AND is into Chinese pharma, working on ‘the cure’.

Hmm...


207 posted on 03/26/2020 1:52:54 PM PDT by polymuser (It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and so few by deceit. Noel Coward)
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To: Autonomous User

BTTT!


208 posted on 03/26/2020 2:00:43 PM PDT by Pagey (8 years of MISERY, Thanks to Valerie Jarrett. Wretched human.)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

He must be using the same modeling software as the Global Warming hoaxers.


209 posted on 03/26/2020 2:07:53 PM PDT by IronJack
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Article snipes saying “Team Apocalypse”, apparently the US gov, is not interested in this. Wondering.


210 posted on 03/26/2020 2:11:10 PM PDT by little jeremiah (Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.)
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To: Wuli

So where did the concept of the “asymptomatic spreader” come from; what research showed it?


211 posted on 03/26/2020 2:19:32 PM PDT by WildHighlander57 ((WildHighlander57 returning after lurking since 2000)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion
This is what happens when "experts" get in a rush to publish. They don't have the patience for reliable data. The bit about influencing "govt policy" is bad.

Here in Oklahoma, four people out of four million, have died of the virus. Yet the state is in a state of siege. We had ten times that die from the flu this past flu season.

I'm not saying to ignore it. But we need to keep it in perspective. And we don't need small time small town mayors having the ability to impede our lives and freak everybody out.

212 posted on 03/26/2020 2:23:11 PM PDT by LouAvul ("Little by little, the look of the country changes because of the men we admire.")
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To: dfwgator
English lesson
213 posted on 03/26/2020 2:23:27 PM PDT by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (Mozart tells you what it's like to be human. Bach tells you what it's like to be the universe.)
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To: null and void
Gonna be a lot of unused dead wagons laying around.

Maybe they can be rented out for other stuff?

214 posted on 03/26/2020 2:32:24 PM PDT by going hot (happiness is a momma deuce)
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To: 1066AD
At least he admitted it.

His family misses their TP

215 posted on 03/26/2020 2:39:58 PM PDT by SisterK (its a spiritual war)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.


these are the same model builders that predict the sea to rise 1000 feet.


216 posted on 03/26/2020 2:45:38 PM PDT by PeterPrinciple (Thinking Caps are no longer being issued but there must be a warehouse full of them somewhere.)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

That and the “consensus” was to hide inside for 8-12 weeks and magically everything will get better. The flue or any virus just doesn’t die off after a month and never return.


217 posted on 03/26/2020 3:05:29 PM PDT by matt04
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Was he thinking like a scientist or like a political leftist. I’d say the latter. This is why I don’t necessarily believe any thing that comes out of a “scientists” mouth. For the record, I thought if this thing were going to kill millions it would have piled up corpses a lot faster than it seemed to be doing.


218 posted on 03/26/2020 3:07:07 PM PDT by TalBlack
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To: z3n

It’s not just the elderly. There are many in their 40’s-50’s who are hospitalized.


219 posted on 03/26/2020 3:10:23 PM PDT by HollyB
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To: aMorePerfectUnion
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

In the meantime, we know that 125,000 babies die from abortion every single day.


220 posted on 03/26/2020 3:10:38 PM PDT by Brown Deer (America First!)
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