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So … How Much Time Does $2.2T In Coronavirus Relief Buy Us?
Hotair ^
| 03/26/2020
| Ed Morrissey
Posted on 03/26/2020 7:16:14 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Will this tide us over until the end of June? And will Congress have to do this all over again if not? The Senate passed a massive relief bill last night aimed at rescuing the economy from free-fall during the coronavirus pandemic, and did so on a 96-0 unanimous vote. But just how much relief does $2.2 trillion buy?
Three months, said Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, although he hopes we dont end up testing whether its sufficient for that much inactivity:
The package is intended as relief for an economy spiraling into recession or worse and a nation facing a grim toll from an infection thats killed more than 21,000 people worldwide. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, asked how long the aid would keep the economy afloat, said: Weve anticipated three months. Hopefully, we wont need this for three months.
Underscoring the efforts sheer magnitude, the bill finances a response with a price tag that equals half the size of the entire $4 trillion-plus annual federal budget. The $2.2 trillion estimate is the White Houses best guess.
The best guess includes some dicey incentives created by the final agreement in the Senate. The rush to extend full-salary unemployment benefits for four months resulted in language that covers voluntary resignations for the first time, and also in some limited circumstances incentivizes them by paying more than the employer did. That led a group of Senate Republicans to threaten to block the bill, but in the end they settled for a vote on an amendment to cap the benefits, which failed:
By the early afternoon, with the final text of the bill still taking shape after a bipartisan deal by Senate leaders and the Trump administration, a group of Republicans threatened to hold it up. They said the expanded unemployment benefits were overly generous and would encourage workers to get laid off an objection that immediately triggered a counterthreat from Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who promised to place his own hold on the bill over his concerns about corporate welfare if they did not drop theirs.
A vote to amend the bill to cap the unemployment benefits failed Wednesday night.
As Jazz noted, it passed unanimously, leaving Nancy Pelosi little room for opposition or obstruction. Donald Trump hailed the 96-0 passage and has pledged to sign it immediately when the House sends it over. Perhaps as soon as today, but likely by the end of tomorrow at the latest, the clock will start on Mnuchins three-month expiration date.
Thats a rather generous time period, at least relative to Trumps public goal of getting back to normal by Easter. Perhaps more importantly, it gives governors some breathing room, both economically and politically, that the Easter target goal threatened to encroach. Here in Minnesota, Gov. Tim Walz just announced a stay home order similar to those in New York, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, California, and a few other states. Those will likely last past Easter, perhaps significantly so until they get health-care resources to deal with an expected explosion in hospitalizations, and right now the projections on those resources show they wont get significantly bolstered for a few weeks yet.
The Hill noted the coming clash with governors before the bills passage:
President Trumps aggressive timeline for reopening the economy could set the White House on a collision course with governors and mayors who seem intent on maintaining social distancing policies beyond the presidents Easter target date if necessary.
Trumps proposal on Tuesday to ease restrictions by mid-April came as a number of state and local governments have moved in the opposite direction, heeding the advice of public health officials to implement stay-at-home orders and close non-essential businesses to stem the rising number of coronavirus infections.
In addition to resistance from public health officials, Trumps aggressive timeline also faces practical obstacles. Some state and local governments have implemented far more stringent measures than the federal governments voluntary guidelines, creating a fragmented patchwork of safeguards to limit person-to-permission transmission of the virus.
The U.S. is not like China. We dont have an all-powerful president, said Lawrence Gostin, a professor of public health law at Georgetown University. We share power between the federal government and the states.
While the president has clear authority to rescind or alter federal health guidelines, legal experts say state and local officials are not required to follow them if their jurisdictions health situation warrants stricter measures.
All true, and as I noted yesterday, Trump is very aware of that limitation. By pushing an Easter goal for normalization, he shifted political responsibility for economic consequences to the governors who control those decisions, too. If Mnuchins correct about the time frame of this relief bill, that should just about cover the rapid production of health-care resources necessary to give these governors enough confidence to rescind those orders and get most people back to normal. Thats a fairly clear-eyed view of the purpose of flattening the curve in the first place, and perhaps a signal that the White House doesnt plan to press that Easter goal too hard after all.
TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; economy; relief
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To: SeekAndFind
A $Trillion here, A $Trillion there... pretty soon you’re talking about some real money...
2
posted on
03/26/2020 7:17:04 AM PDT
by
Mr. K
(No consequence of repealing obamacare is worse than obamacare itself.)
To: SeekAndFind
Not enough if the states in shutdown insist on shutting down small businesses considered "non essential" until May or June.
NO AMOUNT will be enough to resurrect businesses from the dead. They'll be gone and won't be coming back, if ever, for at least 5 years.
3
posted on
03/26/2020 7:17:50 AM PDT
by
Solson
(Trump 2020!)
as long as we are fighting global hoaxing there will be a world for the survivors
4
posted on
03/26/2020 7:17:54 AM PDT
by
dsrtsage
(Complexity is merely simplicity lacking imagination)
To: Solson
I know small business owners. They are fearful the idiot nation will do this again next year, so why bother opening their doors.
This hoax is a gift to big business. I think that’s what this partially about: Killing small businesses to push the owners into taking big business jobs so they can be centrally controlled.
5
posted on
03/26/2020 7:21:48 AM PDT
by
CodeToad
(Arm Up! They Have!)
To: SeekAndFind
If you spend a million dollars a second, that buys you about 12 days.
6
posted on
03/26/2020 7:24:29 AM PDT
by
P.O.E.
(Pray for America)
To: SeekAndFind
"The package authorizes $1,200 checks for all adults who earn up to $75,000.."One article stated some of the money to families may not be issued till the end of 2020.
A lot of good that would be, if so.
To: CodeToad
This hoax will be the death of democrat party as we know it. We’re all socialists now and DJT has cornered the market. Bernie and Joe will soon be bowing down and worshiping.....
To: SeekAndFind
Hopefully it keeps out of a true depression..that’s the only way the added debt has any real value.
9
posted on
03/26/2020 8:20:38 AM PDT
by
trebb
(Don't howl about illegal leeches, or Trump in general, while not donating to FR - it's hypocritical.)
To: SeekAndFind
So how much time does $2.5T buy us?It does not buy US anything.
It buys THEM some time to think of something, anything, to keep the debt system enslaving more and more Americans.
10
posted on
03/26/2020 8:23:56 AM PDT
by
Jim Noble
(There is nothing racist in stating plainly what most people already know)
To: Solson
They'll be gone and won't be coming back, if ever, for at least 5 yearsWow, that's pretty pessimistic.
You are saying if we liquidate all outstanding debt and hang a few bankers if necessary that the outcome will be WORSE than Berlin and Hiroshima in 1945?
That sounds pretty extreme to me.
11
posted on
03/26/2020 8:25:50 AM PDT
by
Jim Noble
(There is nothing racist in stating plainly what most people already know)
To: Mr. K
Conservative Inc need to stop with the knee jerk ideological reactions.
If China had declared war on the US none of you would say a word about this spending. This China Virus is doing more damage to the US, and the World, economy then any war in our history.
Yes we all wish this was not necessary. Yes, we wish this was a clean bill without the usual pork vote buying tactics. Well welcome to the messy workings of legislative politics in a Constitutional Republic.
People have to deal with the world as it is right now, not as they wish it would work. We can go back to the ideological wars in 30 days.
Corporations employ tend of millions of people. Corporations are everything from your local privately own gas station down the street to massive operations like Ford or Delta Airlines.
Corporations have debt they have to play just like people. For example, When they build a new store or plant, they borrow money to finance the capital expense. In addition, they do not usually pay cash for daily supply delivers. Those are purchased are made on credit with 15-30-45-60 days to make payment. All those debt payments still have to be made even thought the Government shut them down or put a lock down on their customers.
Here is an example. I work for a Food Manufacturing corporation that employs about 5,000 people nation wide. Due to the loss of business from the slow down, they just cut all Executive and Sr Management salaries 20%. If this goes one 2 more weeks, they will cut middle management salaries, if it goes on a month they have to cut all salaries. After that they start laying off worker bees like me and shutting down production lines. Why? Because they have to have the money to make their debt payments now and hope they can make it up to employees later.
We are an “Essential Business” not shut down like the Airlines or the Car companies. The US, and the World, are on the brink of a financial crisis like nothing seen since the 1929.
Those credit bills have to be paid even if they are shut down by Government order. The people supplying them need to be paid so they can pay their creditor and so on and so on.
If they are not paid, this will trigger a cascading financial default on scale with what happened in 1929.We not talking about just crashing our economy here, we talking trashing the worlds economy if this is not addressed
12
posted on
03/26/2020 8:45:43 AM PDT
by
MNJohnnie
(They would have abandon leftism to achieve sanity. Freeper Olog-hai)
To: Jim Noble
“Conservative Inc need to stop with the knee jerk ideological reactions. You need to stop clinging to emotion based dogmas and start thinking. The world does not work as you fantasize it does. You need to start living in the real world for once
If China had declared war on the US none of you would say a word about this spending. This China Virus is doing more damage to the US, and the World, economy then any war in our history.
Yes we all wish this was not necessary. Yes, we wish this was a clean bill without the usual pork vote buying tactics. Well welcome to the messy workings of legislative politics in a Constitutional Republic.
People have to deal with the world as it is right now, not as they wish it would work. We can go back to the ideological wars in 30 days.
Corporations employ tend of millions of people. Corporations are everything from your local privately own gas station down the street to massive operations like Ford or Delta Airlines.
Corporations have debt they have to play just like people. For example, When they build a new store or plant, they borrow money to finance the capital expense. In addition, they do not usually pay cash for daily supply delivers. Those are purchased are made on credit with 15-30-45-60 days to make payment. All those debt payments still have to be made even thought the Government shut them down or put a lock down on their customers.
Here is an example. I work for a Food Manufacturing corporation that employs about 5,000 people nation wide. Due to the loss of business from the slow down, they just cut all Executive and Sr Management salaries 20%. If this goes one 2 more weeks, they will cut middle management salaries, if it goes on a month they have to cut all salaries. After that they start laying off worker bees like me and shutting down production lines. Why? Because they have to have the money to make their debt payments now and hope they can make it up to employees later.
We are an Essential Business not shut down like the Airlines or the Car companies. The US, and the World, are on the brink of a financial crisis like nothing seen since the 1929.
Those credit bills have to be paid even if they are shut down by Government order. The people supplying them need to be paid so they can pay their creditor and so on and so on.
If they are not paid, this will trigger a cascading financial default on scale with what happened in 1929.We not talking about just crashing our economy here, we talking trashing the worlds economy if this is not addressed
13
posted on
03/26/2020 8:47:37 AM PDT
by
MNJohnnie
(They would have abandon leftism to achieve sanity. Freeper Olog-hai)
To: SeekAndFind
“Maybe I’ll go to the movies, by myself!”
14
posted on
03/26/2020 8:48:03 AM PDT
by
dfwgator
(Endut! Hoch Hech!)
To: SeekAndFind
Yes, I’ll take the “free” money. But on a macro level, I don’t think it’s a good idea to be just tossing money around. The moral thing to do is to refund tax money already paid.
To: P.O.E.
“Conservative Inc need to stop with the knee jerk ideological reactions.
If China had declared war on the US none of you would say a word about this spending. This China Virus is doing more damage to the US, and the World, economy then any war in our history.
Yes we all wish this was not necessary. Yes, we wish this was a clean bill without the usual pork vote buying tactics. Well welcome to the messy workings of legislative politics in a Constitutional Republic.
People have to deal with the world as it is right now, not as they wish it would work. We can go back to the ideological wars in 30 days.
Corporations employ tend of millions of people. Corporations are everything from your local privately own gas station down the street to massive operations like Ford or Delta Airlines.
Corporations have debt they have to play just like people. For example, When they build a new store or plant, they borrow money to finance the capital expense. In addition, they do not usually pay cash for daily supply delivers. Those are purchased are made on credit with 15-30-45-60 days to make payment. All those debt payments still have to be made even thought the Government shut them down or put a lock down on their customers.
Here is an example. I work for a Food Manufacturing corporation that employs about 5,000 people nation wide. Due to the loss of business from the slow down, they just cut all Executive and Sr Management salaries 20%. If this goes one 2 more weeks, they will cut middle management salaries, if it goes on a month they have to cut all salaries. After that they start laying off worker bees like me and shutting down production lines. Why? Because they have to have the money to make their debt payments now and hope they can make it up to employees later.
We are an Essential Business not shut down like the Airlines or the Car companies. The US, and the World, are on the brink of a financial crisis like nothing seen since the 1929.
Those credit bills have to be paid even if they are shut down by Government order. The people supplying them need to be paid so they can pay their creditor and so on and so on.
If they are not paid, this will trigger a cascading financial default on scale with what happened in 1929.We not talking about just crashing our economy here, we talking trashing the worlds economy if this is not addressed
16
posted on
03/26/2020 8:49:03 AM PDT
by
MNJohnnie
(They would have abandon leftism to achieve sanity. Freeper Olog-hai)
To: MNJohnnie
Not sure why you are sending this to me.
As far as the “world economy” goes (not sure such a thing really exists), the sooner it dies the better.
As far as the US economy goes, the real economy is mostly dead or dying. The pseudo-economy which rises and falls based on continuous or episodic expansion of debt?
The sooner it dies, the better, too. It’s preventing us from getting back to resource extraction, refining, and production of useful things.
17
posted on
03/26/2020 8:51:46 AM PDT
by
Jim Noble
(There is nothing racist in stating plainly what most people already know)
To: Jim Noble
It's not pessimistic, it's reality. There won't be liquidation of outstanding debt. Restaurants and many service sector businesses operate on the thinnest of margins and have to do a large capital outlay to get up and running. They bet on the come.
Giving them "forgivable" loans if they keep employees on the payroll helps in the short term. Having SBA loans to help them "weather the storm" helps for a short period.
Neither offset the loss of revenue. Adding loans on top of thin margins won't help either.
Most of these will simply lay off their employees and shut the doors knowing there is zero chance of anything but minimal revenue until JUNE!
Then, look at the downstream effects. Credit card processors(run through independent commission only reps), equipment companies who had a great backlog of orders coming that have all but stopped, food companies supplying the goods and beverage distributors supplying the drinks ALL get hit when the Mom and Pop doesn't come back.
It's not extreme. Whole sectors will be permanently and fundamentally altered by having the whole world shut down for 3 months.
18
posted on
03/26/2020 9:01:14 AM PDT
by
Solson
(Trump 2020!)
To: MNJohnnie
Not complaining about stuff like that. It’s all these pre-fab Lego-law modules they clip onto it
19
posted on
03/26/2020 9:18:35 AM PDT
by
P.O.E.
(Pray for America)
To: SeekAndFind
It buys plenty of time for those in the political eye and for the friends and families of CONgress.
For the rest of US, the checks in the mail maybe.
We wont know till tomorrow though will we.
20
posted on
03/26/2020 11:10:24 AM PDT
by
Harpotoo
(Being a socialist is a lot easier than having to WORK like the rest of US:-))
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