Posted on 03/25/2020 9:39:13 PM PDT by fwdude
A major source of information upon which government leaders have relied to urge or order the canceling of public events, shut down of businesses and sheltering in place has proved to be inaccurate.
The Federalist's Madeline Osburn points out many members of the media and state officials are relying on an online mapping tool called COVID Act Now.
The site, with a map of catastrophic forecasts for each state, boasts of enabling "political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling."
"But a closer look at how many of COVID Act Now's predictions have already fallen short, and how they became a ubiquitous resource across the country overnight, suggests something more sinister," Osburn wrote.
(Excerpt) Read more at wnd.com ...
The way I look at it, the day to day numbers are not an accurate reflection of the problem, they are a reflection of the testing variable.
The increase in testing is the U.S. STILL getting her arms around the problem. We still don’t know what the bottom line number will be, but the aggressiveness in testing is making the big picture clearer everyday.
Today’s number of 14,024 new cases is scary, but what is even scarier is the idea that they were all around the country, undiagnosed the day before. As Drucker said, you can’t change what you don’t acknowledge.
I’ll check out the article, thanks.
I’m pretty sure the smart people were using the Johns Hopkins and Imperial College projections.
So the author of the article is saying the stupid people in media were using a sensationalist projection that nobody else paid mind to.
Entirely unsurprising.
I am only interested in per capita numbers when comparing country to country.
It works both ways - up and down.
For instance - adjusted for population, the USA has 3.5 times more infections than China, and 20% more fatalities than China.
Hmmm - maybe that's why I don't believe China's numbers?
“Jordan Schachtel, a national security writer, said COVID Act Now’s modeling comes from one team based at Imperial College London that is not only highly scrutinized, but has a track record of bad predictions,” Osburn said.
Jessica Hamzelou at New Scientist explained how Chen Shen at the New England Complex Systems Institute, a research group in Cambridge, Massachusetts, found flaws and “incorrect assumptions” in the formulas.
Even COVID Act Now has started acknowledging “limitations,” including that “many” original numbers “are based on early estimates that are likely to be wrong” and “demographics, populations and hospital bed counts are outdated.”
Hmmm.
Biden: We are the champions of this virus, we can beat the champions before the virus does. </s>
I also said “reported.” My sentence was 100% factually accurate. You brought in the adjustment bureau, but the fact remains.
Mike Adams predicted 580 deaths by April 4th. 2.4 million by July 4th if they didn’t shutdown the airlines and big city mass transit.
To exercise control and get trillions of spending money?
First of all, having "Act Now" in the name of any organization or website is automatically a red flag in my opinion. I did a bit of reading on the site, and sure enough, my suspicions were confirmed. Their homepage is covered with a long list of people, giving the impression that all of them are responsible for the site. However, a closer look reveals that most of them have nothing to do with it, other than maybe mentioning it or giving it a (semi) endorsement. Only one actual medical doctor is among the founders, and it seems he has been in academia for many years.
Below in italics is the site's "About" section. I carefully followed the links to each of the founders. Besides the previously mentioned doctor, their founders include two former Howard Dean campaign workers, one of whom is a democratic state representative in Alaska; a blatant Trump-hater and vocal Democrat supporter who doesn't list an occupation; and a marketing guy. He and at least one of the others live in San Francisco, the home of Nancy Pelosi.
About
CoVidActNow was founded by Max Henderson, Rep Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, Igor Kofman, and Zack Rosen, with medical and policy guidance from Nirav R. Shah (MD, MPH, senior scholar, Stanford University Clinical Excellence Research Center).
Summary of my research:
Max Henderson: San Francisco based computer/marketing guy, former Google employee. Current director for ISLA, a Heritage Language Immersion program that promotes bilingualism and global citizenship of hispanic children through free literacy, culture, art, and science classes in Spanish.
Rep Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: Democratic state representative in Alaska. Described as a major online organizer for Howard Dean's presidential campaign.
Igor Kofman (From his own Twitter bio): ex-Google, ex-Youtube, ex-Microsoft. Maker. Dancer. His Twitter page is full of anti-Trump, very leftwing posts for Democrat causes etc.
Zack Rosen: San Francisco based computer person and bicycle shop owner. Dropped out of college to work on the Howard Dean presidential campaign.
Nirav R. Shah: The ONLY medical person among the founders.
So, in my opinion, CoVidActNow.org is nothing more than a means to continue the media-driven panic over the Coronavirus, providing dire predictions with the goal of causing overreactions that will harm the economy and thus the Trump Administration. This website should not be used for any policy-making decisions, as I believe it is motivated by a purely political agenda.
That’s roughly 1 positive result out of every 7 tests.
Only 683 deaths in 24 hours.
Coronavirus in Italy: Lockdown proving effective as new cases fall for fourth day
https://inews.co.uk/news/coronavirus-in-italy-lockdown-effective-cases-fall-covid-19-outbreak-2518448
Italy coronavirus deaths pass 7,500 amid fears of spread to south
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy/italy-coronavirus-deaths-pass-7500-amid-fears-of-spread-to-south-idUKKBN21C373
Most tested, yes. Most infected? That depends on whether Chicom numbers can be trusted. (Hint: they cannot).
In a dynamic medical event, Case Fatality Rate and Secondary Infection Rate are the only helpful numbers we have.
After two months of USA COVID-19 data, both of those rates have an obvious trend - stable to slightly down.
In medically advanced countries, initial testing focuses on high risk groups - those with known exposure or obvious symptoms.
Germany is the only exception - their private labs have conducted millions of tests, and their CFR is the lowest in the world for a large country - 0.5%.
Here in Washington state, our Secondary Infection Rate has been steady between 6.5% and 7.5% for more than two weeks.
In a normal influenza season, that number would be 30% to 40%.
Washington is about to get a deluge of new test reports. Lab reports increased by 10X a couple days ago, and it crashed our reporting network.
Just like the models used for Gore Bull Warming.
Those have already influenced government cretins to take actions that slashed trillions from the world’s economies.
Re: “My sentence was 100% factually accurate.”
I agree.
But without a reference to population, it is also completely meaningless.
Some of us new the whole time we were being played but we were ridiculed for not being pearl clutchers and wanting to go back to work !!
Some of us new the whole time we were being played but we were ridiculed for not being pearl clutchers and wanting to go back to work !!
“This is the highest number of new cases reported by a single country in one day since the coronavirus pandemic began.”
_______
Should be spelled PANdemIC.
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