The three scenarios
The novel coronavirus has spread across the Netherlands by now. At this point, there are three possible approaches for how our country can respond. Since the televised address by Prime Minister Mark Rutte, they have been referred to as ‘the 3 scenarios’. What do these scenarios entail?
1. Maximum control of the virus. This is the approach that we have chosen in the Netherlands. That means working together to ensure that people follow the hygiene rules, avoid public venues (such as cafés), and maintain physical distance from each other. By taking this approach, we can ensure that people will infect each other less easily. This is known as social distancing. The virus will not be able to spread as quickly, and we can spread out the infections over a longer period. That leads to a controlled spread among the groups least at risk. There are three strategic advantages to this approach:
Most people will experience only minor symptoms and recover from the virus without medical assistance. Most people will build immunity, so the virus has less and less chance to make other people sick (the “protective wall around the vulnerable older people and people with underlying health issues”, as the Prime Minister put it). The hospitals, nursing homes and home care services are not overwhelmed, so there is always enough capacity in our healthcare system. And that includes the Intensive Care Units where the most vulnerable patients are placed.
2. Allowing the virus to run its course unchecked. If we do not take steps to prevent it, the virus will spread faster and faster. Each new patient will infect two more people on average. The huge disadvantage is that our healthcare system would be completely swamped. In this scenario, there would not be enough capacity to help vulnerable older people and other high-risk patients.
3 Maximum containment of the virus. This approach is also known as lockdown. That means shutting down everything completely and requiring everyone to stay in their own homes. Such a rigorous approach may initially seem like an attractive option. The major disadvantage is that it has to be maintained for an extended period. Not just days or weeks. Essentially, all activities would have to be shut down for a year or even longer. That would have huge consequences for schools, for the economy, etc. Moreover, it is very likely that the virus would simply start spreading again once the lockdown is over. When everyone starts going outside again, the virus would be transmitted from person to person – and the lockdown and all its consequences would have been pointless. This risk remains until there is a drug or vaccine for the virus.
At this point in time, the Cabinet has opted for the first scenario. RIVM is monitoring the progress of the outbreak very closely. Any new information or developments are always incorporated into the advisory reports that RIVM provides to the Cabinet, so our government leaders can decide whether to ease current restrictions or implement stricter measures.
Hopefully it will work and prove an example for the other countries to follow.
First hand comments?
“What are we doing in the Netherlands in response to the coronavirus?”
Hopefully NOTHING. We have a big enough problem here.
I don’t know about the Netherlands, but folks seem to be stocking up on tissue paper for their nether regions.
An internet friend of mine (he is Dutch) was planning on leaving the Netherlands last week to join his daughter in Spain. He left it too late, and they closed the border on him. Now he can’t even leave the country, much less drive to Spain.
OK, a quick perspective from an expat who has lived in The Netherlands for quite some time.
Many people are taking the virus serious, but last weekend there were loads of people walking in parks, along the beach and just gathering together like nothing is the matter. Garden centers and do-it-yourself outlets were said to be packed with people getting ready to use the “free days” coming up. Some people still just out cycling and jogging and walking around.
A couple of days ago the government held a press conference and scolded those who were treating this as an unexpected “free vacation.” Nothing seems to have changed (from my behind the window perspective).
My wife and I have been basically hunkered down for the better part of 3 weeks. My wife had some face to face responsibilities for giving limited care to her aged and fragile parents. We had no desire to become infected and then transmit it to them (they would likely not survive it).
I do some seminary teaching and our school shifted to online lectures only as per government directives. I mostly have been home for weeks now (attending online church services as well). As far as school is concerned, many of our students live in close quarters in the dormitory. One infection would spread throughout the school in my opinion. Can’t have that so I am happy to learn some new skills in teaching.
Nobody here seems to understand prepping. About two months ago we saw this coming (thanks largely to FR threads) and started to pack in more than our normal supplies. It has been a couple of weeks since we made a grocery run, and I calculate we can stay hunkered about 5 or 6 more weeks. There were photos of grocery store shelves cleaned out about a week ago.
There is not the same hysteria perhaps, but the TP phenomenon hit here as well. Another American expat friend did not heed the telltale signs and did not stock up. The friend reported having to go to 12 different shops to find a single roll of TP. Nice way to pick up a virus while picking up a roll of TP. Personally I have no idea what the grocery stores look like now because I have not stepped in one in a few weeks.
Traffic, bicycles and pedestrians are down from normal, but many are just being nonchalant (I see them from behind my front windows.)
At the same time, deaths are climbing more and more. Today the Worldometer shows The Netherlands as being about #5 or so in deaths per million, right now I think 21 per million and climbing. The other day the rates of increase looked eerily like the early days of Italy. I hope that does not continue to track and I’ve not checked to see if anyone has updated the comparative charts. All I know is that it will get much worse before it gets better. Loads more deaths than Germany (a much bigger country in population). My guess is that it will get very nasty in the coming weeks, and the government still seems to be dithering.
That’s how I see it from over here.
Successful therapy against Covid-19 virus from New York State:
Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko Board Certified Family Practitioner 501 Rt 208, Monroe, NY 10950 845-238-0000
March 23, 2020
To all medical professionals around the world:
My name is Dr. Zev Zelenko and I practice medicine in Monroe, NY. For the last 16 years, I have cared for approximately 75% of the adult population of Kiryas Joel, which is a very close knit community of approximately 35,000 people in which the infection spread rapidly and unchecked prior to the imposition of social distancing.
As of today my team has tested approximately 200 people from this community for Covid-19, and 65% of the results have been positive. If extrapolated to the entire community, that means more than 20,000 people are infected at the present time. Of this group, I estimate that there are 1500 patients who are in the high-risk category (i.e. >60, immunocompromised, comorbidities, etc).
Given the urgency of the situation, I developed the following treatment protocol in the pre-hospital setting and have seen only positive results:
1. Any patient with shortness of breath regardless of age is treated.
2. Any patient in the high-risk category even with just mild symptoms is treated.
3. Young, healthy and low risk patients even with symptoms are not treated (unless their circumstances change and they fall into category 1 or 2).
My out-patient treatment regimen is as follows:
1. Hydroxychloroquine 200mg twice a day for 5 days
2. Azithromycin 500mg once a day for 5 days
3. Zinc sulfate 220mg once a day for 5 days
The rationale for my treatment plan is as follows. I combined the data available from China and South Korea with the recent study published from France (sites available on request). We know that hydroxychloroquine helps Zinc enter the cell. We know that Zinc slows viral replication within the cell. Regarding the use of azithromycin, I postulate it prevents secondary bacterial infections. These three drugs are well known and usually well tolerated, hence the risk to the patient is low.
Since last Thursday, my team has treated approximately 350 patients in Kiryas Joel and another 150 patients in other areas of New York with the above regimen.
Of this group and the information provided to me by affiliated medical teams, we have had ZERO deaths, ZERO hospitalizations, and ZERO intubations. In addition, I have not heard of any negative side effects other than approximately 10% of patients with temporary nausea and diarrhea.
In sum, my urgent recommendation is to initiate treatment in the outpatient setting as soon as possible in accordance with the above. Based on my direct experience, it prevents acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), prevents the need for hospitalization and saves lives.
With much respect,
Dr. Zev Zelenko
cc: President Donald J. Trump; Mr. Mark Meadows, Chief of Staff
Video at Link
8 posted on 3/24/2020, 5:02:30 PM by Candor7 ((Obama Fascism)http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2009/05/barack_obam_the_quintessentia_1.html))