Medical Experts Weigh In On When We Might Return To “Normal”; This Assumes Of Course That "Normal" Is Ever Coming Back

The state-wide shutdowns have only been in place for a couple of weeks at most, but people are already starting to get understandably jumpy. Even if we assume that the governments, both state and federal, are handling this pandemic in the wisest way possible, when does it all end? When can we declare this emergency to be in our rearview mirror and have our lives return to some semblance of normality? This weekend, the Boston Globe put that question to some experts in epidemiology and the answers aren’t terribly comforting, at least in my opinion.

“That’s one of the hardest questions to answer in epidemiology, and it’s one of the things that everybody is most interested in,” said Samuel Scarpino, an epidemiologist at Northeastern University. “We’re going to have to be very cautious because we don’t want to waste all the sacrifices that we’ve already made.”
The first sign that the tide has started to turn, scientists say, will be a decline in new cases over several consecutive weeks, even as testing expands. In Boston, that peak is likely at least a few weeks away, Scarpino said. New coronavirus-related hospitalizations should fall a week or two after the number of new cases declines, in light of the time it takes for the disease to progress.
That would indicate that the economically devastating social distancing measures are working. Even then, it will be too soon to fully return to normal, specialists say. Just because there was a peak doesn’t mean it was the peak.

So the rosiest scenario that these epidemiologists see is regional peaks that may … may… pass in “a few weeks,” taking us well into April already. Others are saying months. If the reported numbers of new cases start to drop, that means that the social distancing is “working,” but the relief may be temporary. There could be multiple peaks in the same regions.

In other words, even if you live in an area that has peaked and the restrictions are loosened, as soon as people get out and start going to work and doing other “normal” things, another peak may be on the way the following month. This could turn into a vicious cycle that doesn’t end until a vaccine is widely developed or a reliable cure is found. And that could be well into 2021.

The whole question of whether or not this strategy is “working” is one that’s been under very vocal debate here in New York. Even if the “stay home” orders flatten the curve and the spread seems to have stopped for a time, what then? Do we try to stop anyone from coming into the state until the vaccine is deployed? Even if that were possible (spoiler alert: it’s not), it only takes one superspreader with no visible symptoms to show up at a store, apartment complex or any crowded area and we’d be right back where we are now. And all of the economic devastation that’s currently raining down on us because we’ve shut the economy down would have been basically for nothing.

Sorry if I’m coming across as something of a downer today, but the scope of this disaster has really started sinking in for me lately. If we take the best, realistic scenarios being painted by medical experts as gospel, we may keep the total number of deaths down in the tens or hundreds of thousands but wind up in a new great depression. I certainly hope that’s wrong, but if this stretches on well into the summer, it’s tough to see how the economy just jumps straight back into gear.

Be safe out there and take care of each other as best you can.

The original approach of stopping incoming flights from affected countries was the right approach. But other then that, it’s been a cluster *uck since. It was stupid to shut down the economy. You take the at risk group out of the equation and this thing is no where near as bad as the H1N1. They should have focused on protecting and isolating the at risk class. In the end, it would have been every bit as effective. And we would not have committed economical suicide. We will never get back what has been lost. The only thing a bailout package will do is spread out the pain among several generations. Meaning a short term stimulus at the cost of a permanent loss of productivity and quality of life. Then what happens with the next virus or what ever crises that comes along?

I think things will start improving in about a week.

I believe the worldwide efforts to reduce transmission will start to work.

I believe doctors will start to have true improving treatments.

I believe our government will have actual good luck.

I believe companies will start to re-open.

I believe the stock markets will start to go up. RAPIDLY.

And finally, I believe, now people will BRING BACK AMERICAN production again.

Production of drugs. Production of masks.

Production is so many things.

This will all start, in about one week.

This is actually one of the big questions, and one that TPTB can't answer at all. They've closed down pretty much the entire service industry, from waitresses, to cashiers, to delivery folk on the basis of a miniscule infection rate and a microscopic death rate. The biggest problem is, there are no circuit breakers in the system that allow people to sit back and say, 'we need to get people back to work'. That is because to make such a statement is a risk, and no bureaucrat ever wants any blame to point back to him.

We need clearly defined metrics that can be used to force leviathan to act and remove the restrictions they've placed on allegedly free people. Unfortunately, this really doesn't seem to be something they are even thinking of. We are paying the price for it, because none of this affects these bureaucrat's bottom line. Perhaps we'd see movement if we forced them to forgo their salaries like the are forcing all the low-level folks and businesses to do. Until the folks in charge are actually feeling the pain, nothing is going to happen, because their pay isn't being affected.

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