Posted on 03/22/2020 5:45:54 PM PDT by Kaslin
The state-wide shutdowns have only been in place for a couple of weeks at most, but people are already starting to get understandably jumpy. Even if we assume that the governments, both state and federal, are handling this pandemic in the wisest way possible, when does it all end? When can we declare this emergency to be in our rearview mirror and have our lives return to some semblance of normality? This weekend, the Boston Globe put that question to some experts in epidemiology and the answers aren’t terribly comforting, at least in my opinion.
“That’s one of the hardest questions to answer in epidemiology, and it’s one of the things that everybody is most interested in,” said Samuel Scarpino, an epidemiologist at Northeastern University. “We’re going to have to be very cautious because we don’t want to waste all the sacrifices that we’ve already made.”
The first sign that the tide has started to turn, scientists say, will be a decline in new cases over several consecutive weeks, even as testing expands. In Boston, that peak is likely at least a few weeks away, Scarpino said. New coronavirus-related hospitalizations should fall a week or two after the number of new cases declines, in light of the time it takes for the disease to progress.
That would indicate that the economically devastating social distancing measures are working. Even then, it will be too soon to fully return to normal, specialists say. Just because there was a peak doesn’t mean it was the peak.
So the rosiest scenario that these epidemiologists see is regional peaks that may … may… pass in “a few weeks,” taking us well into April already. Others are saying months. If the reported numbers of new cases start to drop, that means that the social distancing is “working,” but the relief may be temporary. There could be multiple peaks in the same regions.
In other words, even if you live in an area that has peaked and the restrictions are loosened, as soon as people get out and start going to work and doing other “normal” things, another peak may be on the way the following month. This could turn into a vicious cycle that doesn’t end until a vaccine is widely developed or a reliable cure is found. And that could be well into 2021.
The whole question of whether or not this strategy is “working” is one that’s been under very vocal debate here in New York. Even if the “stay home” orders flatten the curve and the spread seems to have stopped for a time, what then? Do we try to stop anyone from coming into the state until the vaccine is deployed? Even if that were possible (spoiler alert: it’s not), it only takes one superspreader with no visible symptoms to show up at a store, apartment complex or any crowded area and we’d be right back where we are now. And all of the economic devastation that’s currently raining down on us because we’ve shut the economy down would have been basically for nothing.
Sorry if I’m coming across as something of a downer today, but the scope of this disaster has really started sinking in for me lately. If we take the best, realistic scenarios being painted by medical experts as gospel, we may keep the total number of deaths down in the tens or hundreds of thousands but wind up in a new great depression. I certainly hope that’s wrong, but if this stretches on well into the summer, it’s tough to see how the economy just jumps straight back into gear.
Be safe out there and take care of each other as best you can.
That calculus does not occur in a vacuum. We’ll return to normal when the damage to the economy and disease spread lines intersect on the graph.
Four to six weeks we will be spinning up again. Lots of backlog to take care of. Once the death rate slows to a trickle because we have a cure, we will be off to the races.
It will be vital to develop a drug treatment protocol that saves lives. There is no choice.
We’ll never get out from under this thing without it.
Chinese WMD going to give us bad times for a long time.
Neither do I. I expect that will change for me. Depending on where you live in Kansas, that may or may not change for you.
No surprise it “sinking in” when all you are fed is lies, mis-leading statistics and mis-representation by the Fake News.
Yeah baby!
Mother nature is just around the corner with her springtime rescue. I think the two biggest factors in getting a quick end to this is if the malaria medicine works and the change into warmer weather. Both are just weeks away.
China allegedly peaked and faded over about three months. Taiwan, S. Korea and Singapore were somewhat quicker. We are officially in spring; warmer weather is coming which should help.
The number of cases will skyrocket as more tests are done. More than half of us will likely get this.
The percentage of deaths will fall.
L8r
LMAO! Normal is now CONTROLLED! The left was given a gift like the lottery.....or maybe the f-ing Chinkcoms had this plan.
I worry that by keeping people in, there are many who would have very light cases but picked up some immunity. So if there’s a second round, the hit will be worse.
Quoting Paul Newman from the movie Hombre, “It’s going to get harder.”
Some states will never get back to “normal”.
Let’s say you’re right. How long till it happens again? (”Oooh, it was sooo gooood when we made the proles stay home!”)
I agree.
Your probably right, it will likely return. We may be better prepared and likely have the right drugs in the right numbers.
Yep. Hard to find a more risk-averse population.
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