He included a tweet from another Twitter user that laid out the death rate in the U.S. from COVID-19.
4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases)
3.69% March 9 (26 of 704)
3.01% March 10 (30 of 994)
2.95% March 11 (38 of 1,295)
2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695)
2.27% March 13 (49 of 2,247)
1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954)
1.84% March 15 (68 of 3,680)
What the calculation is showing is not the fatality-rate falling, but the rate of spread increasing.
Where you see the fatality rate falling is when you look at the figures after those who will die is mostly completed and the recoveries complete. *Those* figures are extremely overstated for the US, currently at 69% (390/566) dead of those resolved, early on, but will fall drastically as people have time to recover. Likewise, the fatalities/case, such as Britt used” will climb - though nowhere near a mid-point.
The China figures, though dubious because of their reporting, are at least relatively complete, and despite values at 2% and under 1% early on for the fatalities/case rate, have stabilized at about 4-4.5%, with the note that they are slowly sliding up by a few hundredths of a percent per day as the long-term sick die at a minisculely greater rate than the already-resolved..
If you want to know the actual likely fatality rate before the disease is over, you do cohort studies, and some random sampling to get an idea of how many unreported cases you have. It is still too soon, and the serum tests are not out there as they are concentrating on the actual ill.
Current numbers from Worldometers:
Closed/Completed cases - 112,173
Recovered / Discharged - 97,574 (87%)
Deaths - 14,599 (13%)