Your post doesn’t make sense.
The fatality rate IS falling as the number of infections increase. .
As for Chinese figures being unreliable, I have as much confidence in Chinese figures (which are supported by reopening of previously closed factories in Wuhan Province) as any figures from rabid Trump hating creeps like New York governor Andrew Cuomo.
Once we were able to see the trajectory of the arc for infected and dead, the 4-6% death range became predictable even when the death/resolved rate was at 24%, because it was a real solution to the word problem, which included the uncertainties and didn’t sweep them under the rug.
The truth has been that this outbreak has been and still is serious. There have been many under-reactions and many, many over-reactions. It is serious, but not the end of the world. The more people who treat it serious, the less serious it becomes. The more people respond in panic (Like when they notice the lie of the danger being trivial and overcompensate) then the more random damage they create. Somewhere in there is a “sweet spot”.