Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: lepton
Your post doesn't make sense.
The fatality rate IS falling as the number of infections increase. .
As for Chinese figures being “unreliable”, I have as much confidence in Chinese figures (which are supported by reopening of previously closed factories in Wuhan Province) as any figures from rabid Trump hating creeps like New York governor Andrew Cuomo.
49 posted on 03/22/2020 1:12:31 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies ]


To: SmokingJoe

Your post doesn’t make sense.
The fatality rate IS falling as the number of infections increase. .


So, keep getting people sick and it lessens your chance to die? It doesn’t work that way.
The fatalities per case rate is useful after everything is resolved. It is approaching silliness *during* the outbreak when very few are resolved one way or the other.

As for Chinese figures being “unreliable”, I have as much confidence in Chinese figures (which are supported by reopening of previously closed factories in Wuhan Province) as any figures from rabid Trump hating creeps like New York governor Andrew Cuomo.


I’m just including the caveat when I use the numbers. You can believe or disbelieve their provenance. The China numbers never had a fatality rate of 2%, 1%, or various sub 1% values cited all over the place by those that sought to claim this was either “like the flu”, or even “less than the flu”.

Once we were able to see the trajectory of the arc for infected and dead, the 4-6% death range became predictable even when the death/resolved rate was at 24%, because it was a real solution to the word problem, which included the uncertainties and didn’t sweep them under the rug.

The truth has been that this outbreak has been and still is serious. There have been many under-reactions and many, many over-reactions. It is serious, but not the end of the world. The more people who treat it serious, the less serious it becomes. The more people respond in panic (Like when they notice the lie of the danger being trivial and overcompensate) then the more random damage they create. Somewhere in there is a “sweet spot”.


75 posted on 03/22/2020 1:41:27 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 49 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson