That’s great news, but it doesn’t mean it can’t start rapidly inclining at any point in time in the future.
Relying on China for accurate information?
Now we will shift from hysteria and panic about the “death rate” to hysteria and panic about the “rate of spread”.
Time to shift gears all you Chicken Freepers.
This is no surprise. The President and his team said this would happen the last few days. There are many more being tested now then there has been before. Many many more. What we’re seeing right now is a total rise in positive results. BUT it usually takes 4 to 6 weeks from onset until death to occur so all these newly discovered cases don’t have an outcome yet.
Someone coined a new term: Dempanic
Wow, NY now has more deaths then Washington. I wonder why this flu has not hit the homeless populations in California?
NOTE THIS CAVEAT: China (figures that could well be cooked by officials there).
So, the numerator is suspect in their figures. But then, so will the denominator.
china was welding people inside their homes. that’s why they bent the curve so fast. good luck doing that here.
Yes. And we don’t live in crammed together apartments or population dense cities.
Except in places where predictably it’s hitting hardest, eg New York.
This is criminal abuse of statistics, and Hume is a tool for trying to state this. CCP Virus is aggressively contagious. The contagion was controlled in China by enforcing isolation at gun point and welding people in their homes.
Probably will decline as 1) they test more broadly and find more mild cases, and 2) they learn better how to treat it.
But a straight cases/deaths measure further isn’t very useful. Most importantly, it generally takes people who are going to die from it 3-4 weeks to advance to death. At a time of sharply increasing total numbers, there will be a lag for the death volume to catch up to the cases volume.
If he writes it down on toilet paper people will pay attention.
I believe that Brit Hume may still have an occasionally sharp mind. He gets to show it, from time to time on FAUX News, whenever his views are in alignment with China’s objectives.
As an aside, it seems that little of “News” is news, anymore, and more and more appears to be amateurish attempts to predict the future.
I have been on “work-from-home” for a single week. It’s hard to find out what’s going on and easy to find every amateur crystal-ball-reader’s prediction of what’s going to happen.
Why don’t the “News” providers just use psychics or astrologers?
He included a tweet from another Twitter user that laid out the death rate in the U.S. from COVID-19.
4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases)
3.69% March 9 (26 of 704)
3.01% March 10 (30 of 994)
2.95% March 11 (38 of 1,295)
2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695)
2.27% March 13 (49 of 2,247)
1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954)
1.84% March 15 (68 of 3,680)
What the calculation is showing is not the fatality-rate falling, but the rate of spread increasing.
Where you see the fatality rate falling is when you look at the figures after those who will die is mostly completed and the recoveries complete. *Those* figures are extremely overstated for the US, currently at 69% (390/566) dead of those resolved, early on, but will fall drastically as people have time to recover. Likewise, the fatalities/case, such as Britt used” will climb - though nowhere near a mid-point.
The China figures, though dubious because of their reporting, are at least relatively complete, and despite values at 2% and under 1% early on for the fatalities/case rate, have stabilized at about 4-4.5%, with the note that they are slowly sliding up by a few hundredths of a percent per day as the long-term sick die at a minisculely greater rate than the already-resolved..
If you want to know the actual likely fatality rate before the disease is over, you do cohort studies, and some random sampling to get an idea of how many unreported cases you have. It is still too soon, and the serum tests are not out there as they are concentrating on the actual ill.
It's simple arithmetic that too many people walking around with calculators or even websites that do the calculations for them , find it too hard to comprehend.
Put another way. Elizabeth Warren has a better chance of having Indian blood than you do of contracting the virus in California.
Typical Brit Hume, letting facts get in the way of sensationalism.
If we don’t let this virus run the course we will probably never see freedom of any kind again. Virus never goes away. People are going to die whether we shut down or not. Our economy and freedom are history if we continue in a lockdown. And civil war is likely.
It's been all over. We know that. The death rate is not the single important issue.