Posted on 03/18/2020 8:26:33 PM PDT by Teacher317
I think most of it is explained by when the affected countries totally locked down their societies....that’s when it kind of levels out.
Please post that video on a new thread.
China is clearly lying.
And they could easily model their numbers for Wuhan on any and all of the cities they didn’t tear up the roads into and abandon. They do have a few guys that could do the math, I’m sure.
There is a live feed of Wuhan. Middle of the day and there is nobody there. Maybe it’s different in China, but you’d expect a city of 11 million people to actually have people in it. In any case, things are certainly not normal there, in spite of what the CCP mouthpieces claim.
Consider this: tomorrow Italy passes China in terms of official death toll. With about half as many cases. You think worse didn’t happen in Wuhan than is happening in Italy? Justify that.
Testing is going to go exponential now that the government is paying the tab.
I suppose many thousands of healthcare workers will be tested even if asymptomatic. First responders and military too.
There are closures avalable on freeways in the Rockies, and the central states. They have had them forever.
Nebraska. Places like that.
It would take a half a day, max, to implement anywhere.
In the case of the USA, don't look at the daily number of cases. It's skewed based on the increase availability of the testing.
Look at the number of deaths per day.
Yesterday, GMT, we had 41. So far today, five deaths in five hours.
Hey, perhaps today's the day.
is it possible your friend meant border controls between states, instead of closing down freeways for their entire length?
You're right. There's also some rumor mongering - the "I heard this from a friend of a brother" sort of thing - on everything from road closures, to martial law to you-name-it - on various COVID-19 threads.
And some of the questions and skepticism for those things is not from the rainbows-and-unicorns crowd.
>”Ok flu bro, Washington has had 56 die of this crap in the last 3 weeks. THAT IS TWO YEARS OF NORMAL FLU DEATHS HERE. IN THREE F_CKING WEEKS.”
I decided to check your math.
The prior two years combined, CDC says 95,000 died from flu in USA.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
Washington has 8 million of US population of 330 million, which is 2.4 percent.
Multiplying 95,000 flu deaths by 2.4 percent is 2280 people in Washington dead from flu in 2 years.
58 / 2280 x (365 x 2) = 18.5 days
The 58 who died in washington from coronavirus is roughly how many would have died in 18.5 days, if the flu was evenly distributed across country.
so your estimate is off by more than 50 times
;-)
err 40
Yes italy has had 13 percent growth in new cases for 3 days now. It is still exponential, justs lower.
The growth rate drops below 20 percent per day, 8 days after total lockdown.
Same as China - after 8 day lockdown, low teen growth.
If you believe China’s numbers they got to zero new cases today, about 7 weeks after lockdown.
That’s only for countries that out in harsh social distancing and quarantine policies
All of them??
Go to your local police station and check in....You need help....Seriously.
the spread of covid-19 has been via normal social habits.
infecting people as they go thru their normal day
if nothing is done, with no vaccine available, there would be nothing to stop the spread.
which is why we’ve been told to self quarantine and reduce social interactions.
the impact of those measures WILL NOT be felt for 7+ days.
according to my analysis, i see 25-35k infected within the next 7 days
In general, the arcs are real - though you should probably throw out Iran, as they appear to intermittently report only one or another statistic for repeated days.
So, really you have South Korea, and China so far.
Here’s to hope.
and as testing increases, and cases increase, the CFR will drop dramatically
While things have become much more unknown this week, the evidence from prior weeks was that there really didn’t seem to be more unknown cases than known cases. They were leaking, but not completely out of control. They might actually be having things more or less back in control in Washington. What happened in NYC is very much the other way, and community spread appears to have become dominant there.
Unfortunately, in the ‘outside of China and Iran’ category, the death/resolved rate has been remarkably stable the last week and a half. The best that I can make of that is that we’ve got multiple inverted parabolas running into each other - which might be good news of a sort.
You simply can't trust the Chinese "numbers." Two doctors claimed they were understated by between 5x and 10x, and they "disappeared." WeChat accounts deleted and never heard from again.
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