re: the impact in the US vs S. Korea:
Given that testing, distancing, and quarantine differs between the US and S Korea,
Do we know at what point in the ramp up to 6500 cases did S. Korea institute their methods vs. the US instituting our methods?
Korea ramped up at the exact time constant 15 days. It is fascinating as they were ahead of the testing curve. What is interest about South Korea is that they have 7000 plus (+) in the roughly 160,000 tests. Given this, and assuming testing was based on either self reported symptoms or health care referrals, the actually penetrance is 4%. Fauci commented on penetrance today that we dont know. My suspicion is as follows:
1. For every 1 infection there are 9 that are asymptomatic or did not make it to to medical system contact
2. There are likely a lot o serologically (+) cases that drive the actual critical and death rate down
Given the behavior of the US, I would presume that we are going to track the South Korean trajectory, That would make second inflection point On March 21, or 22 — a good day for the Spring Solstice.