One of our great heroes in this area is Justin Lessler PhD at Johns Hpkins. He is with the AIDS Research Center there in Baltimore and he is an associate professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
From his page there:
“The major focus of my research is the development and application of statistics, dynamic models and novel study designs to better understand and control infectious disease. In particular, I am interested in creating synergies between infection control practice, data collection and infectious disease dynamics. Exemplary of this goal, my collaborators and I have developed methods to estimate the distribution of incubation periods for an infectious disease using coarse data, applied these methods to develop the best available estimates for a number of viruses, and showed how these estimates can be used to improve infection control practice.
My current research projects include work on the transmission dynamics of influenza in southern China, and the most effective use of vaccine in the control of measles and cholera. “
His email is jlessle1@jhu.edu but I expect he is quite busy these days..
Here is a link to the IDEA equation if you want to read about it. I think you will see why people think this approach works. Its at science direct and there is a pdf link at the top of the page:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436516300305
“Here is a link to the IDEA equation if you want to read about it. I think you will see why people think this approach works. Its at science direct and there is a pdf link at the top of the page:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436516300305";
Excellent article — on Ebola! Where is his analysis of Wuhan? I, for one, would be interested in seeing that work. In the meantime, the doc’s back of the envelope sure makes sense to me. In my opinion, a few more days of Italy reports will provide us with an excellent clue if he is correct (canary in the coal mine).