Posted on 03/17/2020 4:34:32 PM PDT by gas_dr
Reports from Italy are that up to 40% of population is violating the quarantine.
After Lombardy shut down, there was a mass exodus of people taking trains from Milan area to the southern regions (before the entire country was put on lockdown).
Now it’s just starting to infect the migrant hospitality centers. Ouch.
Korea ramped up at the exact time constant 15 days. It is fascinating as they were ahead of the testing curve. What is interest about South Korea is that they have 7000 plus (+) in the roughly 160,000 tests. Given this, and assuming testing was based on either self reported symptoms or health care referrals, the actually penetrance is 4%. Fauci commented on penetrance today that we dont know. My suspicion is as follows:
1. For every 1 infection there are 9 that are asymptomatic or did not make it to to medical system contact
2. There are likely a lot o serologically (+) cases that drive the actual critical and death rate down
Given the behavior of the US, I would presume that we are going to track the South Korean trajectory, That would make second inflection point On March 21, or 22 — a good day for the Spring Solstice.
Yeah, I have been more of a jackass than usual the last couple of days — but your kindness has been appreciated.
The number of US cases that are Serious or Critical (worldometers.info) also seems anomalously low (under 20?).
The low number of recoveries is because the cases are still classified as active, that is what makes the death cs recovery interesting and the parallel at 50% at around day 11. We should forecast the rapid increase in recoveries and diminishment of death over the next several days.
Otherwise, this is very different here than anywhere else, and then all bets are off.
So the US ramped up (in our own way and including travel restrictions) BEFORE 15 days, as opposed to S.K.
“These are the times that try men’s souls.”
Germany, too. Only 2 of 9,274 active cases are listed as Serious/Critical.
Better drugs being given to patients in the early stages?
Bump Thanks Doc.
Thank you for your kindness. Stay safe.
You know when I was looking at the data that period in the China data did stand out — it was pretty fascinating, I cannot wait to hear your analysis. Clearly your expertise there supersedes mine. Look forward to your erudite analysis.
Its a badge of honor to have received your bring out your dead tag. Thanks! :)
I believe DoodleBob is bringing forth in oncoming days his logistic data curve. I look forward to his analysis.
Thanks for the post, gas_dr. I feel like I may know you from somewhere in the past.
Stay safe, stay vigilant, and thanks again for the info.
Interesting. Bump to watch
Does weather and climate have anything to do with the numbers?
This is just the data from the aggregate world data. I have not looked at meteorological events.
Seems to me that the test rate might be impacting the numbers we are all considering and in that case might be misleading if trying to compare totals without calculating the difference in the test rates. Another factor in all of this is Mother Nature and when she arrives in warm enough fashion to expedite the end of this virus. Since we are getting hit after the others and our weather is closer to spring, we might have less to worry about. Your efforts are much appreciated and certainly give us a slightly different perspective of the time frame.
The serious flaw in these calculations and graphs is they fail to normalize for population. Spain, France, Italy, Iran and South Korea have populations in the 50 - 60 million range. The US has over 300 million. Choosing a flex point of 100 cases for the other countries equates to roughly 500 cases in the US. Also significant in evaluating the US is the fact that between 20 and 30 cases were imported from China or cruise ships. That number would not create a significant deviation at 500 - 600 case flex point but is highly significant at 100 cases.
The methodology applied is commendable but fails to account for all significant variable with respect to the US.
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