Posted on 03/17/2020 4:34:32 PM PDT by gas_dr
I have spent the last several days like most Americans somewhat baffled, perplexed and even a little nervous at the rapidly unfolding events as to CoVID-19. The community seems to have been divided into two groups, those who are advocating that there is nothing more than the common flu here and that there is vast overreaction, and those that advocate that this is a serious illness that for the safety of all requires drastic measures in order to prevent mass death and tragedy. If one looks closely, it is possible to find everything from death rates calculated at 0.1% - 14% and beyond.
Fair warning, I tend to fall in the previous camp and think that this is likely an overblown situation that appears to be gathering inertia, and I have gotten into several heated and admittedly emotional arguments about this current situation. For full disclosure, I am a critical care physician practicing in the United States, and the fear of the unknown probably drives to a small degree my emotion. So this evening, I have decided to put emotion aside, and truly conduct a retrospective analysis of the data that is present in a multivariant system and see where the data lead us.
I have discovered something interesting, and will simply present the data without commentary. I have analyzed from the worldometer website six countries: China, Italy, United States, South Korea, Spain, and France. I have been curious as to the timelines and increase in daily cases in countries that appear to have rampant disease, and countries that have flattened the curve.
Methodology: Utilizing a base case rate of 100 infections, I standardized the time to 6340 infections, which happens to be the current report of United States infections updated at 1800 EDT. Datasouce: Worldometers.info
CHINA: Time to equivalent cases of United States infections: +7 days. (571 cases -> 7,711 cases). Time to Peak of newly reported cases (2nd inflection point) +15 days from current US case load. After inflection point, total new cases fell dramatically
South Korea: Time to equivalent cases of United States Infections: +15 days (100 cases - 6593 cases). Time to peak of newly reported cases (2nd inflection point) +4 days. After inflection point, total new cases fell dramatically.
Italy: Time to equivalent cases United States Infections: +15 days. (75 - 6,387). Time to peak of newly reported cases +7 days. This is where the data may become predictive. Between March 15, 16, and 17 there was a relatively flattening of new cases and decline in the last 24 hours reported period. What will be a test of this model is what happens to the cases in this 24 hour period. According to the other models, this should be the peak.
United States: Time from 100 cases - 6340 cases +15 days. If this model is predictive, we can ascertain in the next 4 - 7 days based on number of cases and shape of curve if we appear to follow South Korea numbers, or Italian and China Numbers. The current acting head of HHS repeatedly states out numbers track South Korea.
Spain: Time from 75 cases - 6391 cases +13 days. Today is day +2 from the relatively time constant 100 -> 6500 cases period.
France: Time from 100 cases - 6633 cases +16 days. Today is day +1 from relative time constant too >6000 cases.
Analysis: At this time, in the six major countries actively reporting all cases and under greatest scrutiny, there appears to be a constant of +14 days to grow from 100 - 6500 cases. The percentage variation in this is extremely small. From the time this 15 day time constant occurs, there is divergent data to the second inflection point in countries who are reporting a decrease in overall numbers of new cases (curve flattening). That time constant is from 4 - 7 days (South Korea (4) - China (7) - Italy (7)) If this is predictive model, what we should see it a flattening of the Italian curve starting today -- that would track with China. In the United States we are between (4) and (7) days from flattening if the data hold. The divergence of cases added between day 4 and day 7 are as few as 1500 new cases as in South Korea, and as many as 20,300 new cases in Italy, which fits an exponential growth from day 4 - 7.
If the Italian numbers are flat tomorrow and the next day, the model appears will become increasingly predictive. Questions that remain to be answered: Are aggressive measures able to reduce the time to second inflection as in the case of South Korea? If so, then we can predict in America that maximal saturation will be March 21. If it trends toward China and Italy, then it will be March 24.
I will update this as data become available. I look forward to reasoned discussion regardless of personal opinion as to the scope of this pandemic.
“I will try to post something tonight — ....”
Look at my post at #156 a few posts above yours.
I still think your logic is good. I wish we could believe the numbers in China, but I’ve got little faith in those reports. I’m focusing in on N. Korea. They are holding firm! I’m waiting for next Tuesday to get here :-).
Just posted updated analysis — North Korea has excellent numbers — they shot there index case :-)
As for South Korea, I agree it is holding with a small caveat we need to watch —
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3825571/posts?page=1#1
Thanks a million for this analysis!!!!!!
can anyone tell me when the worldometer numbers are updated....I go there several times, well, actually dozens of times a day and the numbers aren’t always the same....
Not sure when it updates.
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