Posted on 03/17/2020 4:34:32 PM PDT by gas_dr
I have spent the last several days like most Americans somewhat baffled, perplexed and even a little nervous at the rapidly unfolding events as to CoVID-19. The community seems to have been divided into two groups, those who are advocating that there is nothing more than the common flu here and that there is vast overreaction, and those that advocate that this is a serious illness that for the safety of all requires drastic measures in order to prevent mass death and tragedy. If one looks closely, it is possible to find everything from death rates calculated at 0.1% - 14% and beyond.
Fair warning, I tend to fall in the previous camp and think that this is likely an overblown situation that appears to be gathering inertia, and I have gotten into several heated and admittedly emotional arguments about this current situation. For full disclosure, I am a critical care physician practicing in the United States, and the fear of the unknown probably drives to a small degree my emotion. So this evening, I have decided to put emotion aside, and truly conduct a retrospective analysis of the data that is present in a multivariant system and see where the data lead us.
I have discovered something interesting, and will simply present the data without commentary. I have analyzed from the worldometer website six countries: China, Italy, United States, South Korea, Spain, and France. I have been curious as to the timelines and increase in daily cases in countries that appear to have rampant disease, and countries that have flattened the curve.
Methodology: Utilizing a base case rate of 100 infections, I standardized the time to 6340 infections, which happens to be the current report of United States infections updated at 1800 EDT. Datasouce: Worldometers.info
CHINA: Time to equivalent cases of United States infections: +7 days. (571 cases -> 7,711 cases). Time to Peak of newly reported cases (2nd inflection point) +15 days from current US case load. After inflection point, total new cases fell dramatically
South Korea: Time to equivalent cases of United States Infections: +15 days (100 cases - 6593 cases). Time to peak of newly reported cases (2nd inflection point) +4 days. After inflection point, total new cases fell dramatically.
Italy: Time to equivalent cases United States Infections: +15 days. (75 - 6,387). Time to peak of newly reported cases +7 days. This is where the data may become predictive. Between March 15, 16, and 17 there was a relatively flattening of new cases and decline in the last 24 hours reported period. What will be a test of this model is what happens to the cases in this 24 hour period. According to the other models, this should be the peak.
United States: Time from 100 cases - 6340 cases +15 days. If this model is predictive, we can ascertain in the next 4 - 7 days based on number of cases and shape of curve if we appear to follow South Korea numbers, or Italian and China Numbers. The current acting head of HHS repeatedly states out numbers track South Korea.
Spain: Time from 75 cases - 6391 cases +13 days. Today is day +2 from the relatively time constant 100 -> 6500 cases period.
France: Time from 100 cases - 6633 cases +16 days. Today is day +1 from relative time constant too >6000 cases.
Analysis: At this time, in the six major countries actively reporting all cases and under greatest scrutiny, there appears to be a constant of +14 days to grow from 100 - 6500 cases. The percentage variation in this is extremely small. From the time this 15 day time constant occurs, there is divergent data to the second inflection point in countries who are reporting a decrease in overall numbers of new cases (curve flattening). That time constant is from 4 - 7 days (South Korea (4) - China (7) - Italy (7)) If this is predictive model, what we should see it a flattening of the Italian curve starting today -- that would track with China. In the United States we are between (4) and (7) days from flattening if the data hold. The divergence of cases added between day 4 and day 7 are as few as 1500 new cases as in South Korea, and as many as 20,300 new cases in Italy, which fits an exponential growth from day 4 - 7.
If the Italian numbers are flat tomorrow and the next day, the model appears will become increasingly predictive. Questions that remain to be answered: Are aggressive measures able to reduce the time to second inflection as in the case of South Korea? If so, then we can predict in America that maximal saturation will be March 21. If it trends toward China and Italy, then it will be March 24.
I will update this as data become available. I look forward to reasoned discussion regardless of personal opinion as to the scope of this pandemic.
No worries.
I meant what I said, about keeping you and ALL first responders in my prayers.
Stay safe and please keep us posted on all that you see and hear.
I see your point, but I disagree. The populations affected thus far in the United States are that of South Korea and the other countries. There are vast swaths of rural counties unaffected yielding a relatively normalized population. In my home state (I have access to the immediately updated numbers) Less than half of the counties are reporting cases, albeit rural counties.
I respectfully disagree and think this has been accounted for.
the best numbers are the deaths as you say. All the rest are estimates. Because most people recover, the #1 problem is how many will die, so projecting this is the goal This days to a number appears to be one way. We’ll see.
I’m looking at plotting weekly deaths on a semi-log chart. For the US the numbers aren’t old enough yet to project and compare to the regular flu and the H1N1 pandemic.
In a few weeks, both should give us some answers.
I sincerely hope you are right, because that would be great. My governor (Fauxgan) would then hopefully lift the statewide (and premature, IMO) shutdown on bars, restaurants (takeout still allowed), casinos, gyms and movie theaters. Beats sitting at home all the time.
FD: I’m not a “flu bro.”
Did it fit your toe properly? I’ve had complaints about the string being too tight...
I suppose.
But I did think them.
Although I strive, I’m still not the person my dog thought I was...
Its a little tender, but what of it, I am just as dead either way :-)
Nobody respects the anesthesiologist until it's time to go "under". Trust me, an absolute expert took care of me when I had my colonoscopy and another did when I had my shoulder repaired.
Oddly, the recovery room nurse was surprised at how lucid I was after my shoulder work. He probably wasn't aware of my experiences at being semi-conscious on occasion (mostly alcohol-induced stupidity in my younger years). He showed me my charts, and I admired the doctor's work. The stitches were excellent!
So the reported cases are in the population dense areas but population density is not a factor. Makes perfect sense.
My governor (Sisolak) just shut down the state for 30 days.
Casinos closed. Schools closed. Theaters closed. Bars closed. Restaurants curbside, pick up or delivery only. Churches, find a way to deliver spiritual sustenance without personal attendance. Funerals, minimal number of attendees. All nonessential businesses closed. Unemployment, apply on line. Food banks, boxed food and gloves.
(Didn’t hear anything about the brothels though...)
Bah! ANYBODY can put you under. The anesthesiologist can bring you back!
in my state, Washington, everything is closed down except they let the weed stores stay open...figures....
Come on man/woman! No wild death rate prediction! Or a total fatalities for the USA prediction? Disappointing! ;-) Just kidding. Thanks for keeping it on the calmer/civil/scientific side!
If I had to place a bet on what the numbers will look like in 6 months, I would have to say “well past the bell curve peak”...hopefully flattened by the USA “social-distancing” effort that falls between China’s communist draconian lockdown, and the lack of early lock-down in Italy and the UK. With a fatality rate of somewhere between 0.3% and 0.8% and a bit less than 1 million cases. That is my “back of the napkin” amateur guess based on the #’s I am seeing so far. For a more scientific/statistical approach like yours, here are some to ponder:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Virus denier!!!
Ha! Indeed! I have even put myself "under". But being brought back, and in a timely fashion is a work of art.
True story - my colonoscopy was done while I was under (hopefully, that's all that was done) and upon waking, I heard the doc say "This one's done". It was like perfect timing.
The anesthesiologist is the race driver of surgery, hitting the perfect apex in the curve, and accelerating out of that curve for maximum speed on the straightaway. On every lap!
Utility disconnects, suspended. Eviction proceedings, suspended.
Thanks for sharing this information, very informative .
:)
Nevada right? Wow, Vegas & Reno and millions/billions in revenue at stake over 56 cases of COVID-19 in NV...hope he is right and not just grandstanding for 'rat flack at PDJT. One wonders what the reaction would be if the Hildabeast were Prez. (2009 H1N1/Swine flu not such a good comparison...as it turned out to be less lethal than "regular flu").
“ The serious flaw in these calculations......”
I’m not sure I agree. Wuhuan has a population of 11M and is ground zero in China. He used China in is analysis.
Thank you for your work on this. If I’m understanding correctly, your projection (and hope) is that the total number infected in the U.S. will become approximately constant around March 23 +/-2. Which would mean the daily number of newly infected equals the number recovering? I’ve noticed on graphs that this number has remained nearly constant in China for 2 to 3 (?) weeks. That leaves a lot of people out there with the virus.
So, my question is, when can a 73 year old with heart disease safely go to the grocery store? I understand you can’t answer this question directly, but, any thoughts?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.