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To: Robert DeLong
No. You missed my point the PERCENTAGE of recovered PLUS the PERCENTAGE of DEAD should equal 100%

That's what the textbook formula will show for any historical epidemic.

Why? Because ALL the cases are resolved.

The text book formula assumes everyone who had the Spanish Flu in 1918 either died of it or survived. A very reasonable assumption for 102 years later...

Using a formula that is based on all cases resolved for an ongoing epi-(or pan-)demic is flawed at the get-go.

If you use ALL RESOLVED cases as the denominator the recovered and deceased percentages will add up to 100. And those percentages will better predict the outcomes for the still ill.

181 posted on 03/17/2020 5:42:42 PM PDT by null and void (By the pricking of my lungs, Something wicked this way comes ...)
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To: null and void

At some point in time it will, but there are 180 people who have not died, nor have they recovered. I just didn’t present the still infected number and percentage. I gave the dead and recovered and their percentages thus far. It’s still ongoing. We are not talking about something that happened in the past we are talking real time here.


183 posted on 03/17/2020 5:51:58 PM PDT by Robert DeLong
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