Posted on 03/17/2020 10:02:47 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
“Stealth” coronavirus cases are fueling the pandemic, with a staggering 86% of people infected walking around undetected, a new study says.
Six of every seven cases – 86% — were not reported in China before travel restrictions were implemented, driving the spread of the virus, according to a study Monday in the journal Science.
“It’s the undocumented infections which are driving the spread of the outbreak,” said co-author Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University Mailman School, according to GeekWire.
Using computer modeling, researchers tracked infections before and after the Chinese city of Wuhan’s travel ban.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Hey! A math guy! How do I look at post #70? Do I have it right?
“It’s probably a fair assumption that more than half of us are walking around with all viruses in circulation at the moment.”
Is that like saying most everyone has cancer cells in their bodies..?
You live on a large piece of property or farm, right?
In an effort to figure out what the Ro of the virus itself is you have to look at a large number of cases before mitigation efforts begin. The only numbers on that were from China a couple weeks ago and it looked to be about 4 days there. So that is the “number” we are trying to push down. It appears to be working for the most part. But a doubling rate of four days was the highest I have heard of. This guy is assuming 3 days. That’s way too much.
Much less deadly than peanut allergies.
Yeppers!
I got mine from return basket. Store is short of everything!
How many were airborne at the Miami airport at the international terminal? The pictures look pretty busy.
In at least some states, no one is being lab tested but medical people, politicians and others with special circum$tance$. Most of the serious cases are diagnosed according to symptoms, scans, etc.
In at least some states, no one is being lab tested but medical people, politicians and others with special circum$tance$. Most of the serious cases are diagnosed according to symptoms, scans, etc.
BTW, that’s why we’re seeing so many negatives in statistics.
Get an hour a day outdoors.
That’s my prescription for physical and mental health.
Be well.
Pray Psalm 91 once in the morning and once at night.
A lot of us are doing that.
If 86% of all cases are undetected, that means these 86% are not having symptoms, or so mild they don’t notice or care.
If we assume that this ratio exists over the entire population, then the whole situation changes.
United States, about 300 million people. IF 50% are exposed, under current thought, we have 150 million infected people, and 2%, or 3 million might die.
But if 86% of us are effectively immune, than if we tried to infect 50% of the country:
300 million * .32 = 96 million. 50% = 48 million. 2% die == 960,000.
And if in fact the immune population percentage is more like 90%, the entire “pandemic” turns out to be overblown. Sure, a ton of poeple got sick, because 10% of every population is still a lot, but the whole things peters out a lot quicker than we thought, because it’s like 90% of us already had the thing.
We have done NO studies on what the “infection rate” is for the virus at various viral loads.
Imagine trying to run that controlled study, get 1000 volunteers to just be subjected to various loads of the virus, hold them 14 days, and see how many get positives.
But look at the numbers on the cruise ship, captive audience, no control of spread, little treatment. 710 tested positive out of 3800 (18%). Of the 710, only 300 had symptoms. We credit “isolation”, but what if the 18% was because only 36% were even susceptible to it, and 50% of them caught it?
That’s a hell of a good idea.
I’m series.
Correct. But, that would the number for China not necessarily for the US.
A communist health care system and respiratory problems caused by air pollution may make the Chinese more vulnerable than Americans.
No, you are right. 12,400 x 30,000 =372 million ( i used 325 million).
Does that mean if you lived in a town of 12,400 people the odds are, at least, one person MIGHT have the virus?
How big would the population have to be that one person MIGHT die of coronavirus?
12,400 x97? (@3% death rate) = 1,202,800.
So, in a town of 1.2 million one person MIGHT die?
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