Posted on 03/13/2020 7:10:59 AM PDT by Kaslin
What just happened? The Democratic presidential nomination race, which gave signs of lasting months, is now basically over.
Sen. Bernie Sanders won North Dakota and lost Washington after carrying a lead on Wednesday. In Michigan and Missouri, where he won 50% and 49%, respectively, against Hillary Clinton in 2016, he carried 36% and 35% against former Vice President Joe Biden in Tuesday's primaries. He was wiped out even worse in Mississippi and lost in Idaho.
It turns out that the apparent similarity between the Republican contest in 2016 and Democrats' contest in 2020 was only apparent. Bernie Sanders is not Donald Trump; former Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar weren't Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio; and Joe Biden turned out not to be former Gov. Jeb Bush.
Different candidates' motivations and perceptions were different. Looking back, Rubio and Cruz seemed to genuinely believe they were destined to win, the Republican first Hispanic president following the Democratic first black president. So Rubio stayed in the race through Florida in mid-March and Cruz through Indiana in early May. Former Gov. John Kasich stayed in even later as the Republican candidate for those who can't stand Republicans.
Buttigieg and Klobuchar got out after the first four contests. Mayor Pete left because his utter rejection by black voters left him unviable in a party hooked on identity politics, whose claims to moral superiority rest on its support from almost all black voters. Hence its reflex to call Republicans -- not just Donald Trump but also Mitt Romney -- racists.
Minnesota's Klobuchar left after failing to get liftoff in neighboring Iowa and getting 4% and 3% in Nevada and South Carolina. Her gender was no help: Democrats had already chosen their first woman nominee. The ire of feminists was reserved for the rejection of Elizabeth "I have a plan for that" Warren, even though she fizzled in national, Iowa and New Hampshire polling in November, four months ago, when her "Medicare for All" plan imploded.
Similarly, identity politics theory failed to operate as Democrats seemed nonplussed by the prospect of a second black nominee after the election of the first black president. Sen. Kamala Harris, Sen. Cory Booker and the all-but-invisible former Gov. Deval Patrick failed to attract appreciable support from black (or non-black) voters.
As for Sanders, his support among rural and small-town voters has consistently lagged behind 2016 levels. That was glaringly evident in Michigan, where he carried 73 of 83 counties against Hillary Clinton and lost every one, even university counties, to Joe Biden. He lost all 114 Missouri counties and all 82 of Mississippi's.
Sanders' strength outside major metropolitan areas in spring 2016 has been considered an augury of Trump's success there that November. But maybe it was also predominantly a gauge of Clinton's weakness in "deplorables" country. That raises the question of whether Trump can replicate his big general election margins there this year.
In any case, it seems clear that the world's oldest political party, which, since its formation in 1832, has been a coalition of out-groups, of people who are not considered typical Americans but often form a national majority together, is determined to nominate a 77-year-old white European-descended male.
Biden is also one who, in the words of veteran Fox News analyst Brit Hume, "like so many people his age, is losing his memory and is getting senile." Hume, seven months younger than Biden, admits, "I have traces of this myself," and distinguishes Biden's recent lapses from his long-term propensity for gaffes, which are "kind of harmless."
One Biden characteristic is his adherence to conventional wisdom, or at least to a Democratic version of conventional wisdom, which is usually taken as common sense by the press, over a long career -- long enough to where, on many issues, conventional wisdom has moved on, leaving Biden vulnerable to current fashions. His 1970s opposition to school busing and 1990s support of tough-on-crime legislation were both criticized by primary opponents but may not be problems now.
His opposition in 1991 to the brief and successful Gulf War and his support in 2003 of the much longer and more stressful Iraq conflict now look more problematic. But the press is not inclined, and Donald Trump may be too maladroit, to argue, as former Defense Secretary Robert Gates did, that Biden has "been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades." Biden's strengths and weaknesses leave him a candidate with no easily predictable electoral consequences.
In the meantime, the coronavirus threat and how President Donald Trump responds to it will steal attention from the Democrats, also with no easily predictable electoral consequences.
It is almost unbelievable that Biden now looks like the Democrats presumptive nominee. Could they have chosen a more senile candidate with a more vile history of corruption?
I think Sanders faded badly because of the message he was selling. People have (correctly?) tagged him, not as a Socialist, but as a Communist with Socialist leanings. I think his hero worship of Castro and others hurt him badly.
“ In the meantime, the coronavirus threat and how President Donald Trump responds to it will steal attention from the Democrats, also with no easily predictable electoral consequences.”
Pshaw. They underestimate him as per usual
I predict this will be Trump’s finest hour
Hard to believe Bernie lost Washington. Did they ever finish counting California?
“ It is almost unbelievable that Biden now looks like the Democrats presumptive nominee. Could they have chosen a more senile candidate with a more vile history of corruption?”
Democrat voters are unreasonable.
They vote democrat with a hate for republicans that they derived osmotically from their dysfunctional upbringing
The one I know best saw Biden last week at some funder
Says he’s not senile.
That’s what you’re dealing with.
“ Pshaw. They underestimate him as per usual
I predict this will be Trump’s finest hour.”
I think you’re right about that.
The left are truly twisted.
Everything they falsely accuse Trump of, Biden is guilty of in spades. Not to mention very possibly being a pedophile.
Bernie is the candidate from 1959.
they had that in 2016
They already said it would be April before they get done counting
I’m not sure I agree with the “almost” part.Surely something “out of the blue” will change the DNC nominee.
Bernie big mistakes
2016 - I don’t want to hear about her damn emails
2020 - I love Cuba
He also got inflated 2016 support of about 15% (look at Mi 2016 v 2020) of about 15% of being “Not Her” So his impact and influence is over stated. He is the darling of about 15% of voters overall. No Bern, just a fizzle flame out
So they just deemed slo Joe the winner and Bernie the chuck is just going along with it because he knows he’s getting a pay off at the end of it just like in 2016?
Biden is their ace in the hole to protect all of them from prosecution and jail(hope is fading) he is just one of many who sold out this country to our enemies “china is a nice bunch of guys” and involved heavily in corruption. Bernie has been working with them to act as the pied piper for the young vote, he keeps his purity as a socialist rebel leader joins “Joe the senile” and asks his minions to follow him joe will take care of us all and I will make sure he does the prize is unseating Trump is the rally call all the while laughing to the bank because you know he has been paid handsomely. Watch for the VP pick this will be your next president if he is elected. He will not last, A non elected chosen person by our enemy rats will be the president. What they have always wanted. Just my guess
I think there's a lot of misunderstanding about the dynamics behind these primary battles. I'll use the following example to illustrate what's going on here:
Back in 2016 ... Among 100 random Democrats in any given state (Michigan, for example), the breakdown of supporters by candidate is as follows: Clinton 60%, Sanders 35%, and Others 5%. The Sanders supporters are much more motivated and passionate than the Clinton supporters, to the point where half the Clinton voters are just as lazy and apathetic as their candidate is. So when primary day comes around the vote among these people is as follows: Sanders 33, Clinton 30, and Other 3. Sanders "wins a stunning victory" in all the media reports, but he never really got any support outside his hard-core base.
Now in 2020 ... Among 100 random Democrats in any given state (Michigan, for example), the breakdown of supporters by candidate is as follows: Sanders 35%, and Others 65%. The Sanders supporters are still much more motivated and passionate than the "Other" supporters, but this time the "Other" supporters remember what happened in 2016 -- and since they are generally dumb as rocks, they will vote for the candidate they are told to support. So when primary day comes around the vote among these people is as follows: Biden 45, Sanders 30 (the turnout among his followers declines a bit because of his age and health history), and Other 3. Biden is presented by the media as a strong, surging candidate with widespread appeal -- but in reality he just managed to get more support among people who didn't even bother showing up to vote in 2016. And Sanders, once again, never really got any support outside his hard-core base.
THIS is what is going on here, folks. Sanders isn't really getting screwed. He's just getting out-maneuvered, and put back in his rightful place.
Why label President Trump as “problematic” in the title of a piece entirely about the problematic Dems?
To me, Hillary is plainly evil, and obviously corrupt. But the stupid crap that she has pulled probably has more to do with hubris and her complete lack of any moral compass than senility.
Break me off a piece of that as well.
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