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To: NELSON111

Well, instead of just posting a statistics equation, why don’t you fill in the variables so we can follow your logic? Parabolic, hyperbolic, exponential, or what I am seeing - linear.


81 posted on 03/12/2020 3:34:17 PM PDT by crusty old prospector
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To: crusty old prospector
How do you see LINEAR when you have this?

Daily increase (difference from previous day starting March 1st): 18->15->28->26->65->77->123->167->198->266->309->341 (count not finished)

This is an Nd+1 of .35 - which is a doubling rate of 2 days. It's been very consistent. If it were a linear increase - the daily increase would go up by 100 every day - or some other consistent number. It isn't - this is a logarithmic increase. That is very clear in the data. It is very clear it is a .35 multiple (with a .05 margin of error).

So - go grab a calculator - and do some simple math: Take 1670 (the current number of cases) and multiply it by 1.3 (the low Nd+1) or heck - make it 1.2 for all I care - and do that 30 times.

That is your number of cases in one month with ZERO mitigations - no closures - nothing. That is math. That is science. Pure and simple.

84 posted on 03/12/2020 3:58:27 PM PDT by NELSON111 (Congress: The Ralph Wolf and Sam Sheepdog s<how. Theater for sheep. My politics determines my "hero")
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