Posted on 03/12/2020 4:41:18 AM PDT by Kaslin
Try this thought experiment. Envision the coronavirus, also known as COVID-19, as a living, breathing enemy -- which, of course, is exactly what it is.
But imagine for a moment that we are in real war with a cognizant, thinking and clever enemy whose sole reason to live is to hurt, maim or kill as many of us as it can.
COVID-19 may not have jets, tanks or nukes, like our past enemies. But its arsenal, numbers, cunning and willpower are said to be formidable.
To win its war against Americans, COVID-19 must infect and sicken lots of Americans each day. If it cannot infect enough victims to multiply and sustain a hungry army of viruses, COVID-19 will soon sputter and die. It will get trapped in just a few hosts among an otherwise victorious and healthy nation of about 330 million.
Nature has given COVID-19 some weapons that its defeated cousins -- the H1N1 swine flu and the MERS and SARS viruses -- lacked.
It is more clever by being less lethal -- and a little tougher in its ability to live outside a host. Viral resiliency ensures that it rarely turns into a suicide bomber by dying with a terminally sick host, and that it does not perish so quickly when orphaned in the air and on surfaces.
The coronavirus has allies. It infiltrates our defenses by using our own weapons against us -- our dirty hands, the habitual touching of the face, and indiscreet sneezing and coughing.
Poor personal and public hygiene gives the virus some sustenance and camouflage. To win -- defined as sickening or killing thousands of us -- COVID-19 counts on our laxity. It hates careful individuals who block its invasion into the eyes, nose and mouth.
(Excerpt) Read more at townhall.com ...
We keep saying that, and I hope its true, but there are outbreaks in Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, India, Panama, Costa Rica, South Africa and Ecuador. All tropical or enjoying summer.
I’m over 65 and have or have had diabetes, hypertension, cancer, obesity...
I’m more screwed than Laz!
We’ll donate to the cause of your choice in lieu of flowers...
Still hoping we don’t have anything that overruns our ICUs.
Those pics of the clearly young people in Italy on ventilators were enlightening.
Education? What’s that, “don’t you see how bad it is, it’s 10,000x worse than anything”.
It’s a corona virus with a respiratory stress component. AKA Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome-2 or SARS-2. It has a 6% fatality rate among the elderly and people with underlying conditions such as diabetes and coronary artery disease.
If the fear mongers weren’t so concerned about “educating us” they’d have advised elderly, diabetic and heart disease FReepers to get an oxygen bottle and breather in case of infection.
Hear, hear!
It’s like this: most people are in denial until it hits code to home.
Then they overreact.
Back in the 1960s this kind of thing was called “consciousness raising.”
I bet you hyperventilate as you type every one of your captivating posts. Seems you are truly an expert in this field.
Asymptomatic spread.
Among children.
They also on occasion can get the flu in those places. It is not 100% temperature dependent.
Actually, in the US there have been because cases that are detected by PH authorities lead to vigorous contact tracing. They might be off by a factor of 50-100% but when infections are doubling every couple of days that means you are only inaccurate by a day and a half. Further based upon all of this you can backward and forward project to correct the figures.
Competent statisticians do this all the time.
Thebatupidity/normalcy bias people are exhibiting here is insane.
‘We’ have been saying elderly need to hunker down for weeks now.
But ‘we’ were accused of being irrational and inciting panic.
Source, please?
Your life expectancy would be less than 100 days from today, yet a 1% chance of dying from a disease is no big deal?
Well please go ahead and take yourself out of the gene pool. The race will be stronger for it.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Many thanks for your analyses!
Travis McGee wrote:
“Q from Elsie:
Shouldn’t the size of the country’s population be taken into account?
A from AJ: No! That is the point of exponential increases. The important number is the number of newly infected / day divided by the number of presently infected. If it doubles every three days, it doesn’t matter where you start. Soon most of your population will have been infected. The difference between infecting all of Italy and all of the US is about 1/2 of a week.
By plotting the numbers on a log graph you can determine the alpha for each country and as Travis’s plot shows it is pretty much the same country to country.
Now, if you were to show plots for Taiwan or Singapore or China you would see very different patterns because they have broken the chain of multiplication through effective public health measures.
14 posted on 3/12/2020, 7:58:05 AM by AndyJackson”
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