If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.
The most important thing is for PT to continue what he is doing, and not panic the country. The panic would be the most dangorous. Another breifing by him this week should happen though.
Too rational, too factual, panic requires more fear.
Great post. This is what we need at this hour — thoughtful analysis of the facts by experts. And given this is Anthony Fauci — someone who has a long-term track record of success in this very area of knowledge — this analysis is highly authoritative.
These are the kind of people the public needs to listen to rather than the Marxist, Trump-hating, “Never that Great” brother of Fredo.
And where are the pollsters when we need them? I’d be curious to know if climate-change-fascists and TDS sufferers are more susceptible to Covid-19 doomsday fears than the rest of the public.
If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases,
I’m not sure that in places with strong testing programs like S. Korea, that there are reasons to assume they are off by more than 50%. If so, then the 1-0.1% numbers would not seem to be within bounds.