Right you are (about that poor man on the ground in Iran). I'm sure you saw this earlier today:
The American Hospital Association, which represents thousands of hospitals and health systems, hosted a webinar on February 26, 2020 with its member hospitals and health systems. The presentation, titled "What healthcare leaders need to know: Preparing for the COVID-19" was presented with representatives from the National Ebola Training and Education Center. Dr. James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center gave his "best guess“ estimates of how much the virus might spread in the US:
If we have 96 million cases.
And 1% need ventilation support.
Thats 950,000 cases.
It’s estimated that the US has between 62,000 and 110,000 ventilators.
I’m guessing each patient needs a week on the ventilator. And assuming 50,000 ventilators in use at any one time. Other’s are being cleaned or not where needed.
950,000/50000= 19.
We need to spread out the illness over 19 weeks. Or 5 months.
If it happens faster than that, which it probably will because of the exponential nature of this thing, then we are in trouble with our health care system being overwhelmed.
The most extreme cases will need ECMO machines. And I understand there are very few of those.