If we have 96 million cases.
And 1% need ventilation support.
Thats 950,000 cases.
It’s estimated that the US has between 62,000 and 110,000 ventilators.
I’m guessing each patient needs a week on the ventilator. And assuming 50,000 ventilators in use at any one time. Other’s are being cleaned or not where needed.
950,000/50000= 19.
We need to spread out the illness over 19 weeks. Or 5 months.
If it happens faster than that, which it probably will because of the exponential nature of this thing, then we are in trouble with our health care system being overwhelmed.
The most extreme cases will need ECMO machines. And I understand there are very few of those.
Thanks. I was actually starting to do that calc earlier today — how long of a period of time would we need to spread this thing out given exponential growth so as to not overwhelm hospital beds and ventilators. I figured it was about a half year or so. It may be nip and tuck. Hopefully moving into a warmer and more humid time of year slows it down, too.
The machines are probably made in China and the factory is shut because all the workers are either welded into their apartments, in sealed quarantine centers - aka hospitals, or dead and awaiting cremation